October Equity Research Insights

This month features insights on: Papa Johns, Coinbase, Chipotle, Spotify, Alcon and SharkNinja

iPhone16 Launch Analytics from NielsenIQ

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Papa John’s (PZZA): PZZA CFO Ravi Thanawala cited “a highly promotional QSR environment and a more value-conscious consumer” as challenges the pizza chain was overcoming in Q2. This promotional environment seems to have continued into Q3. In our last monthly PZZA report for August, we saw a steady increase in Monthly Average Discounts since April 2024, nearing $12. In good news, these discounts seem to be working; NIQ’s Monthly Order Volume Index increased both MoM and YoY as well.

Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN): NielsenIQ data aligns with Coinbase's stock price trend, as crypto prices began declining in late August. The data shows a decline in trading activity, both in buy and sell orders, starting on 8/24. According to CNBC & Coinglass, September has historically been a challenging month for crypto assets, with bitcoin posting an average loss of 4.8%. It will be interesting to see how September unfolds, as COIN has already fallen 19.1% over the past month.

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG): E-receipt data from NielsenIQ shows that digital sales at Chipotle experienced the first double digit decline YoY since April 2022 in August 2024. With a new CEO and increasing competition in the fast casual restaurant segment this is an interesting data point to see occur. NielsenIQ will be watching upcoming promotional events such as Boorito in October to see if digital sales performance picks up.

SharkNinja (SN): The Ninja SLUSHi was the #1 selling product within SharkNinja’s U.S. DtC channel in September, after launching in July, with the strength coming off management commentary that the product was the fastest selling new product ever during its launch week. The SLUSHi is set to launch internationally by early 2025 alongside other new items including the Ninja Luxe Café.

Spotify Technology S.A (SPOT): NielsenIQ E-Receipt data shows elevated daily subscription rates in Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom following the start of a 3-month free-trial for new subscribers in mid-August. Spotify periodically offers multi-month free trials to boost signups. NielsenIQ will continue to monitor these new members to see if they stick around or cancel before the 3 months are up.

Alcon (ALC): Alcon is losing share in the key Daily lens market as losses for the brand's high priced “Dailies” lenses are outweighing gains for the brand's lower-priced Precision1 product family. Bausch + Lomb’s Infuse lenses have been the main beneficiary of Alcon’s Daily share losses in the U.S.

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