October 2024 comment

Bonds and equities fell in tandem in the runup month to the US presidential election. The dollar bucked the trend and rallied, as a mix of solid economic data and sticky core inflation pared down cutting cycle expectations alongside increasing Republican win odds. The firming greenback didn’t stop gold from reaching fresh all-time highs, with both long positions supporting our monthly performance.

Mixed fortunes in the agricultural space, with grain prices aiding our shorts by dropping following their China stimulus pop, whilst a recent trend long in rubber hit a bump and faltered. The portfolio has been gaining traction after the Bank of Japan and China impacts of late, with the fundamental component faring better within the macro environment whilst the trend side has been afflicted with undefined price action surrounding the election.

In the monetary domain, the Bank of Canada and European Central Bank both moved in the absence of a Federal Reserve meeting, the former accelerating its rate cut to 50 basis points whilst the latter kept steady at 25. Both authorities will be keeping a close eye on election spillovers especially with regards to potential protectionist moves.