October 20: York added 75 new cases, 2 new deaths
Tuesday, October 20:
York added 75 new cases and 425 negative tests (15% positivity), with two new deaths.
Hospitalizations are continuing to reach record high levels. Today's data bring us to 5,971 cases and 193 deaths across York County since March.
YORK DAILY AVERAGE NEW CASES
Today's 7-day average, the heavy blue line, reached up to 59.7 (from 58.4 yesterday). This continues to be widespread community transmission: there is no indication of a large concentrated outbreak such as in a nursing home or the prison.
The 14-day average, the dashed blue line, jumped up to 57.1 (from 55.1). Make note of this line, I'll come back to it later. The 4-week average, not shown today, rose to 50.6 (from 49.1).
YORK POSITIVITY RATE
The 7-day positivity rate that I calculate from public data, the solid red line, jumped up to 10.3% (from 9.5%). The very high daily positivity rate today (15%) could be an indication of an outbreak somewhere, perhaps a large workplace where the employees live all over the county and we wouldn't see it in the ZIP code data. It could also be an indication of increasing community spread, or just an anomaly. Just something to watch in the days to come.
The rate that the state calculates and reports on Fridays, the red dots, I modeled to increase today to 5.7%.
YORK HOSPITALIZATIONS
The daily COVID census at York Hospital increased again, this time up to 60 patients (from 55 yesterday). With this the 7-day average, the purple line, set yet another record high at 52.6.
YORK DEATHS
Two additional deaths reported today, the small columns along the bottom, brought the 7-day average to 1.86 (from 1.71).
PENNSYLVANIA DAILY AVERAGE NEW CASES
Statewide today 1,557 new cases were added bringing the 7-day average, the solid gold line, up to 1,461. This has been steadily charging upwards since hitting 761 on September 27, nearly doubling in the past 23 days.
The 14-day average, the dashed gold line, hit 1,402 (from 1,365), showing the same steep upwards trajectory as the 7-day average. The 4-week average, not shown today, hit 1,187 (from 1,161).
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Yesterday during a Pennsylvania Department of Health briefing, Dr. Levine discussed contact tracing, urging Pennsylvanians to answer the phone call from contact tracers if they test positive, and to download the anonymous CovidAlertPA app to be notified in case your phone was near someone in the past 14 days who later tested positive.
She discussed some recent trends in new cases and findings from contact tracing. Over the past two weeks there have been over 2,000 cases in school aged children (5-18), or approximately 10% of all cases, and the percent of all new cases by school age teenagers (13-18) is now at it's highest level than at any other time since the beginning of the pandemic.
Attempts to pursue contact tracing in the week of October 4-10 were ignored by 67% of positive cases. Of the remaining new cases that answered the call, they reported visiting the following places over the previous 14 days:
? 50% - restaurants
? 14% - bars
? 13% - gyms
? 8% - salons
? 26% - other establishments
I poked around the DOH website but can't find that in print. A link to the video is below, and she begins discussing contact tracing around the 8:15 mark.
There's a piece in the York Dispatch today about how cases are "again" increasing after stabilizing last week, as well as other plenty of other erroneous information. Just a quick look at the blue line climbing upwards we can see that's nonsense, but it's another example of why there are people in the county who don't have any idea what the pandemic situation looks like locally. The writer also cited Spotlight PA data analysis that shows York doesn't have a clear trend over the past 14 days. Well, looking at the blue dashed line we can see that doesn't make sense either. I'm not going to link those two pieces and spread poor information, but they're out there if you're interested.
Dr. Michael Osterholm, the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, warned in an interview on Sunday's Meet the Press that the next six to twelve weeks will be the darkest of the pandemic. We are spending less time outdoors, and holiday gatherings are inevitable. He also expressed concern that there is a disconnect with messaging, there's no lead voice consistently carrying important information to the country. We see this at a local level, too, where County of York PA, City of York, and other local leaders haven't adopted strong and consistent messaging about mask wearing, avoiding large gatherings, and promoting other preventative measures.
Don't forget you can get tested at CVS and Rite Aid in addition to contacting your PCP. Just make an appointment.
Mask up. Wash hands. Be safe.
#YorkPA #COVID19 #YorkPACovidData
LINKS
Covid Alert PA App:
https://www.pa.gov/covid/covid-alert-pa/
October 19 PA DOH Briefing:
Dr. Osterholm on Meet the Press
https://www.businessinsider.com/infectious-disease...
CVS Testing:
https://www.cvs.com/minuteclinic/covid-19-testing
Rite Aid Testing: