Oct. 7, One Year On

Exactly one year ago, Hamas shocked the world with a brutal attack on Israel, killing roughly 1,200 people and taking some 250 others hostage. It was the worst assault on Israel since its founding, profoundly damaging its sense of security. In response, Israel has spent the past year attacking Gaza in an attempt to eliminate Hamas. It has killed more than 41,000 people and wounded nearly 100,000. The events of Oct. 7, 2023, have sparked a broader regional war between Israel and Iran that also involves Iran’s proxies in Lebanon, Yemen, and beyond.

Last year, Foreign Policy asked a group of thinkers how the war in Gaza would end . Did any of their predictions come true? You be the judge. This year, instead of asking for policy prescriptions, we decided to ask a diverse collection of thinkers—Palestinians, Israelis, Americans, and Jordanians—to answer one troubling question: Is the war in Gaza closer to its end or beginning ?

We also invited one of our frequent contributors, Aaron David Miller, to look back on the past year in the Middle East and take subscriber questions on FP Live. You can watch him here , in conversation with our editor in chief, Ravi Agrawal. It’s also worth reading two of Miller’s recent essays: one about how the Biden administration doesn’t have as much leverage over Israel as people might think, and another on how the conventional wisdom that Oct. 7 changed everything in the Middle East may not be true.

As the conflict metastasizes around the region, scholar and former policymaker Vali Nasr tries to answer another important question: What will Iran’s next step look like? And journalist Stefanie Glinski continues her brave reporting from Lebanon with a dispatch from Ain Ed Delb , a small village in the country’s south. “The village has largely emptied of people,” she writes, “except for those still digging up the dead.”—The Editors

New and Noteworthy

• Kim Jong Un’s Ambitions: “Will the more worrisome impact of Moscow and Pyongyang’s newfound partnership be seen on the battlefields of eastern Ukraine, or in the geopolitical landscape of Northeast Asia?” FP’s Keith Johnson writes about the deepening arms trade between the two countries and what it means for the world.?
• Taiwan’s Vulnerabilities: Experts have long brainstormed how China might attempt to bring Taiwan under its control through hard power. In a recent tabletop exercise, the results of which were first shared with Foreign Policy’s Lili Pike, an approach without reliance on military force was brought to the forefront.??
• Invading Wikipedia: Ruwiki, a spinoff of the original Russian-language Wikipedia, features carefully translated information—and state-sponsored disinformation. “Ruwiki’s full control over facts will allow the Kremlin to retell history on its own terms—including denying its war crimes in Ukraine,”? Olga Boichak writes.

FP Live

One Year On: The World After Oct. 7

On Demand

On Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas launched a brutal attack on Israel and set in motion a new cycle of violence that has rocked the Middle East. With the risk growing of yet more escalation, where did things go so wrong? What could third parties such as the United States have done differently? Aaron David Miller, a former Middle East advisor to both Republican and Democratic secretaries of state, joined FP Live to look back—and ahead. Join FP to watch the on-demand conversation.

A New South African Foreign Policy?

On Demand

The African National Congress party lost its outright majority to govern South Africa. What might that do to the country’s long-standing policy of nonalignment? FP’s Ravi Agrawal sat down with Ronald Lamola, South Africa’s foreign minister, to discuss the country’s genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice, how the country manages its relationship with BRICS partner Russia, and its leadership role in Africa. Join FP to watch the on-demand conversation or read the Insider-only Q&A. ?

Inside the U.N. General Assembly

On Demand

Is the United Nations too divided to be effective? Do proposals for reform have any chance of advancing? Veteran U.N. watcher Richard Gowan joined FP Live to explore the future of decision-making on the Palestinians, Ukraine, and other key issues after the conclusion of the U.N. General Assembly in September. Join FP to watch the on-demand conversation or read the Insider-only Q&A.?

Exercise Your Mind

On Wednesday, Jimmy Carter became the first former U.S. president to celebrate his 100th birthday. Which other distinction does he hold among the nation’s presidents??

A. The first to be president of all 50 states

B. The first to be born in a hospital

C. The first to have a campaign debate televised

D. The first to appear on Saturday Night Live

You can find the answer to this question and learn more at the end of this email.

Invest in Soft Power

By Joseph S. Nye Jr., a distinguished service professor emeritus of Harvard University and the author of, most recently, A Life in the American Century.

In our Fall 2024 magazine , we asked nine eminent foreign-policy thinkers to write nonpartisan letters of advice to the next White House—and to Americans. Read on for a preview of the issue, “Dear America,” and subscribe for full digital access to the magazine, expert reports and analysis, and insights that matter ahead of the U.S. elections.?

Dear Madam or Mr. President,

As president, you will need to invest in U.S. soft power, the ability to get what we want through attraction rather than coercion or payment. When I first published an article on soft power in Foreign Policy in 1990, the concept was new, but the behavior is as old as human history. While the hard power of coercion usually prevails in the short run, soft power is essential for the long-term success of foreign policy. As Talleyrand, Napolean’s foreign minister, is alleged to have said, “You can do everything with bayonets, except sit on them.”

A country’s soft power comes primarily from three sources: its culture; its political values, such as democracy and human rights; and its policies when they are seen as legitimate, because they are framed with awareness of others’ interests. How a government behaves at home in its practice of democracy, in international institutions and alliances where it consults others, and in setting foreign-policy goals such as promoting human rights and responding to global public problems such as climate change determines whether other countries find us attractive or not…

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Answer: B. The first to be born in a hospital. Carter left office in 1980 with a mixed reputation but can count the Salt II Treaty and the Camp David Accords among his foreign-policy achievements, FP’s Stephen M. Walt writes .