Ocean freight demand recovery?

Optimism among carriers has been in short supply in recent months. However, this week it appears that has changed. Full ships, a stabilising spot rate and bullish charter market have put a spring in the step of the carriers, who have had dreary few months of rate erosion and abundant capacity.?

Container spot rates increased on 15 of the 21 export routes tracked from the Chinese port of Ningbo. Carriers have also reported that ships are sailing with full loads with Maersk believing that the market is “finally beginning to stabilise and find equilibrium”.

Could this signal the start of a rebound?

While the US is only one market and inventory levels are only one metric, analysis of recent data released by the US Census Bureau reveals that inventories remain bloated. While the inventory levels of wholesalers had dropped by 0.4% between Dec 2022 and Jan 2023, retailer levels grew by 0.2% and manufacturers remained stable over the same time period.?

These high inventory levels have also been reflected in recent data from Container Trade Statistics (CTS), showing a steep decline in imports from September to January.

So are carriers overly optimistic and reaching for any positive indications from the market? Is the inventory data out of the US and Europe lagging behind actuality? Or is capacity management beginning to stabilise the market?

It could be a combination of all three, along with a plethora of other influencing factors.Whatever the case may be, it will be interesting to see what unfolds in the coming weeks.

Asia?

China?

Ocean

Rates from Asia to Europe have remained stable compared with last week.

Rates from Asia to the US? have decreased slightly compared with last week.

China's PMI index figures have shown that manufacturing activity slowed in March.

• The index shows that manufacturing is still expanding but at a slower rate than in February, which reflected the fastest pace of growth in a decade.
• The March figures have raised doubts over the strength of a post -COVID factory recovery amid weaker global demand.?

?New analysis of China's ports has revealed its infrastructure dominance over the region.?

• There has been growing discourse about manufacturing shifting away from China to other hubs such as Vietnam and India however significant port investment would be required in these areas to challenge China.?
• China has 76 port terminals that are able to support large ships carrying more than 14,000 TEUs.
• However, South and South East Asian countries have just 31 port terminals between them.
• Ports that are? able to support these large vessels with above 14,000 TEU capacity are critical as they account for approximately? two-thirds of the shipping capacity for services between east Asia and Europe.

Air

Central China to USA and Europe?

From SHA to Europe and the US, rates have remained stable since last week.

From NGB to Europe, rates have increased, while rates to the US have remained stable.

• We recommend booking 4 -5 days prior to the cargo ready date.?

North China to USA and Europe?

From TSN to Europe and the US,? rates have risen this week and continue to fluctuate.?

• We recommend booking 4 -5 days prior to the cargo ready date for shipments to Europe.
• We recommend booking 6 -7 days prior to the cargo ready date for shipments to the US.
• For Europe, the main services on this lane include Air China, Lufthansa and Singapore Airlines. Korean Air and Asiana Airlines can provide freight flights that can offer an earlier estimated time of departure and arrival.?
• For the US,? the main services on this lane include Japan Airlines, All Nippon Airways and Cathay Pacific. Korean Air and Asiana Airlines can provide freight flights that can offer an earlier estimated time of departure and arrival.?

From PEK to Europe and the US, rates have increased as the market has been hot.?

• We recommend booking 4 -5 days prior to the cargo ready date for shipments to Europe.
• We recommend booking 6 -7 days prior to the cargo ready date for shipments to the US.
• Special rates can be applied to heavy dense cargo. Please check on a case-by-case basis.?

South China to USA and Europe?

From? CAN to Europe and the USA,? rates have increased and this is expected to continue to rise this week.?

• Space will be tight until 9th April.?
• All shipments will need to be checked with the carrier for rates on a case-by-case basis.?

From SZX to Europe and the US, space has remained tight and rates have increased since last week.

• All shipments will need to be checked with the carrier for rates on a case-by-case basis.?

From XMN to Europe rates, have remained stable but rates to the US have increased again this week.

• Space is tight for flights to Europe and the US.
• All shipments will need to be checked with the carrier for rates on a case-by-case basis.?

North America

USA?

Ocean

New data from Container Trade Statistics (CTS) has revealed a sharp drop in imports from September 2022.?

• The drop is attributed to an inventory correction taking place in the US.
• Data from the US Census Bureau has shown that while inventory levels for wholesalers are gradually decreasing, manufacturers and retailers inventory levels remain bloated.

A survey by the American Association of Port Authorities (AAPA) has shown that US ports are expected to build out nearly $50 billion in green infrastructure over the next decade.

• The survey was undertaken by AAPAs members, more than 130 public port authorities in the US, Canada, the Caribbean and Latin America.
• Some initiatives which respondents were most interested in included electric cargo handling equipment, shore power for vessels at berth, electric grid infrastructure, and hydrogen energy infrastructure.?

Europe

Benelux

The Port of Rotterdam has signed a €1 billion expansion deal with APM Terminals.

• The contract will see APM add approximately 47.5 hectares to its existing Maaskvlakte II terminal.
• The terminal is expected to be expanded by the second half of 2026 and is expected to increase the capacity by 2 million TEU.

UK?

Ocean

The UK? has joined the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).

• The trading bloc comprises 11 nations from across the globe and is aimed at promoting economic integration among its member countries and strengthening their trade and investment relationships.
• The government has stated it will an economic and geopolitical boost to the UK.?

Road/Rail

The Road Haulage Association has pushed for more facility security as food cargo theft rises.?

• The cost of food cargo theft jumped to ￡700 million from ￡250 million since 2011.
• Food and drink accounted for 17% of all cargo theft last year.
• The RHA is requesting? improved security at roadside facilities and estimates that 11,000 safe and secure parking spaces are needed.