Occam's Razor on Covid-19's One and Only Origin

2020 was a lost year for Covid-19 Origins hunters .?The latest evidence reported on 5 July 2021 concludes that Covid-19 has evolved naturally .?It further dismissed categorically that there was any scientifically validated evidence to support the theory that the coronavirus leaked from a laboratory in China.??

The Letter in the prestigious and authoritative Lancet Journal was published by 24 physicians, veterinarians, epidemiologists, virologists, biologists, ecologists and public health experts from around the world.?They wrote that:

"We believe the strongest clue from new, credible, and peer-reviewed evidence in the scientific literature is that the virus evolved in nature, while suggestions of a laboratory-leak source of the pandemic remain without scientifically validated evidence that directly supports it in peer-reviewed scientific journals."

They strongly suggested that Covid-19 has a natural origin.

The authors included scientists from Boston University and University of Maryland in the United States (US), the University of Glasgow and The Wellcome Trust in United Kingdom (UK) UK, Charite-Universitatsmedizin Berlin, Germany, and The University of Queensland in Australia among other global institutes and Universities in the US, UK, Germany, Spain, Italy, Malaysia and China's Hong Kong Special Administrative Region.

For example, The Wellcome Trust is a politically and financially independent global charitable foundation, funded by?a?￡29.1 billion investment portfolio .?It supports science and the scientific community to solve the urgent health challenges facing everyone, by funding discovery research into life, health and wellbeing, and focus on 3 worldwide health challenges:?mental health, infectious disease and climate.

Director of Wellcome, Dr Jeremy Farrar, said:

“The origins of SARS-CoV-2 are not yet certain – it is possible the origin will never be fully established – but nature is a powerful force and, in my view, the most likely scenario is that the virus crossed from animals to humans and then evolved in humans.

He added: “The best scientific evidence available to date points to this. It is most likely it crossed the species barrier to infect and then adapt to humans at some point in 2019, but there are other possibilities which cannot be completely ruled out and retaining an open mind is critical”.?

However, other groups of experts have been equally passionate about the China lab leak theory unlike the authors of The Lancet letter.

A letter from 18 experts in the?Journal Science ?in May 2021 said: "Theories of accidental release from a lab and zoonotic spillover both remain viable" despite World Health Organisation (WHO) Director-General Tedros Ghebreyesus comments that the March WHO Report did consider evidence supporting a laboratory accident but found it “insufficient to support the China lab leak theory”.?The 18 experts faulted the WHO Report , insinuated and alleged Chinese interference without any factual basis, and wanted “a proper investigation (which) should be transparent, objective, data-driven, inclusive of broad expertise, subject to independent oversight, and responsibly managed to minimize the impact of conflicts of interest”.?

Another letter, this time initiated by the French, was signed by 31 scientists and?published in?Le Figaro , calls for a “complete inquiry…if possible, with the participation of the Chinese government”.??The letter called for an inquiry into the origins of the pandemic published this year.?Signatories included doctors, scientific researchers and professors from across the world, including France, Spain, Italy, Germany, Austria, New Zealand, India, Australia, the US, Canada, and Japan.

The signatories from?the French National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS) in Paris included: Jacques van Helden, Professor at Aix-Marseille Université; Francois Graner, biophysicist and CNRS Research Director at the Université de Paris; José Halloy, sustainability and physics Professor, at the Université de Paris; and Virginie Courtier, evolutionary Geneticist and Research Director at the Institut Jacques Monod.

In May 2021, Ms Courtier?told?The Connexion : “We still have no idea whether SARS-CoV-2 has a totally natural origin or if the virus went into a laboratory and there was an accident.”

Further politicisation of Covid-19 Origins investigations also came from the Group of 7 Industrial Countries (G7) in their Summit Communique which on 13 June 2021 called for a “phase 2 study on the origins of Covid-19, which is transparent, within a reasonable time frame, led by experts, founded on science, approved by the WHO and also done, as the expert report recommends, in China”.?They also rejected the March 2021 Report by WHO (World Health Organisation) which found the China lab leak theory “extremely unlikely”.

For Dr Jeremy Farrar, Director of Wellcome:

“There has been too much conjecture and theory without data or evidence, although still there is not enough transparency.” “There is no place for unsubstantiated rumour or conspiracy theories often fueled for other purposes.”?

“Understanding the origins of this disease, and any zoonotic infection, is absolutely critical to successfully preventing future outbreaks and protecting lives globally. The answers can only be found in robust scientific evidence, with full transparency from all involved.”

ENTER THE LAMBDA (?) VARIANT

The World currently grapples mainly with the Covid-19 coronavirus and its variants, namely: Alpha (United Kingdom – UK), Beta (South Africa), Gamma (Brazil) and Delta (India).?The Beta and Delta variants have been more transmissible than others.

The latest Covid-19 “Variant of Interest (VOI)”, as termed by the WHO officially on 14 June 2021, is the Lambda (?) Variant and it is spreading very rapidly in the US, Europe and South America.?It was first discovered in Peru in August 2020. It accounts for 81% of Covid-19 cases in Peru since April 2021.?By 24 June 2021, it has been detected in?26 countries (but not India and China, among other countries) according to UK Public Health data (cases in brackets):

Chile (707), USA (525), Peru (222), Germany (87), Argentina (86), Mexico (57), Spain (43), Ecuador (30), Israel (19), Colombia (15), France (13), Egypt (8), Switzerland (7), United Kingdom (6), Italy (5), Brazil (3), Canada (3), Netherlands (1), Aruba (1), Portugal (1), Denmark (1), Czech Republic (1), Turkey (1), Australia (1), Curacao (1), and Zimbabwe (1).?Bolden are countries where the Covid-19 virus was scientifically proven to have pre-existed before China.

It is prevalent among countries who also have the most Covid-19 cases in the world (see chart), with the notable exception of India.?China is also prominently absent; but she currently also has near zero local Covid-19 cases.?Chile and the USA have the most cases of the Lambda (?) Variant but Chile has just 1.6 million Covid-19 cases.?

LAMBDA (?) VARIANT NOT IN INDIA AND CHINA – Why?

It is unknown whether the 1st Peruvian case in August 2020 has any link to overseas travels or travel to China or links with those who did. The absence of the Lambda (?) Variant in India, which has the 2nd highest Covid-19 numbers could mean that its existence, evolution and mutation was independent and not related to earlier Covid-19 strains.?

It points to a NATURAL mutation.

Interestingly, the USA, France, Italy and Spain, where the Corvid-19 coronavirus was scientifically proven to have pre-existed long before its discovery in China, experience significant levels of the Lambda (?) Variant cases.

The USA has the 2nd highest Lambda (?) Variant cases (525) next to Chile (707). One would readily recall earlier (unproven) theories in 2020 that the “Mother” strain of the Covid-19 coronavirus had spawned 5 strains which were found only in the USA.?The only strain found in China then was just the “Wuhan” strain.?What this actually means scientifically seems vague, indeterminate and uncertain however.

The irregular, unsystematic distribution of the Lambda (?) Variant among the USA, UK, India as well as China and other countries would strongly point to the coronavirus’ presence, evolution and mutation in Nature, as believed and supported by scientific research among many Scientists and Experts from as far back as February 2020.?

?

The Occam's Razor Principle?would demand that in the face of the abundant evidence, scientists and experts in the Covid-19 Origins debate should accept the simplest possible theoretical explanation for the existing scientifically validated factual data.

OCCAM’S RAZOR PRINCIPLE

Albert Einstein: “A scientific theory should be as simple as possible, but not simpler”.

One may argue that a simple, as opposed to a simplistic, solution or explanation would inadvertently exclude many important aspects of the problem; while a complex solution would unnecessarily complicate its execution together with the unproductive use of resources.?Yet, theories with different practical implications, like those about the Covid-19 Origins, often reflect and imply underlying simple and elegant solutions to be discovered through the vigor of objective scientific methods.??

There is a Chinese saying that "complex problems do not have simple solutions".?However, the Chinese solution approach often involves a series of iterations to first make simple the complex elements within the initial complex problem.?In other words, for the Chinese, a complex problem should first be rendered simpler, so that a simple (and elegant) solution would become obvious.

The Occam’s Razor Principle, named after the 14th Century theologian and philosopher William of Ockham (1285-1348), states that: “the?simplest solution?is almost always the best” because it makes as few assumptions as possible and eliminating those that make no difference in the prediction of the explanation or theory.?It has become a problem-solving principle and heuristic model whereby “simplicity is better than complexity”.

When applied to the competing and confusing arguments of Covid-19 Origins, which have conflated science with politics and ideology to produce a miasmatical climate which pollutes and corrupts serious scientific discourse, the Occam’s Razor Principle should now prevail to guide and focus the discussions for a truly permanent and effective long-term Covid-19 solution.

While complex problems may often have more than one causes, the most desirable simplest explanation of the same phenomenon ie Covid-19 Origins would require making fewest exceptions or qualifications, and to rely only on the preponderance of the scientific evidence without having to make unnecessary and improbable assumptions.

The Occam’s Razor Principle would dissect, “shave away” and strip out purported “scientific” explanations of Covid-19 Origins which are political and ideological so as to narrow the field of truly relevant variables and material things (entities).?By doing this, more plausible simpler and elegant solutions could then be discovered to be tested in order to arrive at the ultimate simple final true and sufficient answer: that the Covid-19 virus is not man-made, and is natural like many other viruses;?

That Nature is the sole and only Origin of the Covid-19 virus.

The Big Picture perspective is that knowing the virus’s origins is crucial to stopping the next Covid-19 related pandemic.?Occam’s Razor can be used to focus scientific sense and insights to where to place our efforts and scarce resources.

Please enjoy my recent Articles .