Obsolescence Mitigation in Defence Systems: Safeguarding Semiconductor Supply Chains for Long-Term Success

In the defence industry, obsolescence is a critical concern, especially for systems with long operational lifespans. The rapid evolution of technology, coupled with supply chain vulnerabilities, poses significant challenges, particularly when it comes to semiconductors—the backbone of modern defence systems. From missile guidance to radar systems, semiconductors play an indispensable role in the operation of advanced military platforms. However, the ongoing semiconductor shortage and rising geopolitical tensions have highlighted just how fragile these supply chains can be.

All major U.S. defense systems and platforms rely on semiconductors for their performance.

Center for Strategic and International Studies Semiconductors and National Defense: What Are the Stakes?

As engineers responsible for designing defence platforms that must endure over decades, it’s crucial to address semiconductor obsolescence head-on. By planning for obsolescence mitigation during the design and manufacturing stages, engineers can safeguard their systems from future disruptions. This requires a forward-looking strategy that considers both the availability of semiconductors and the external factors that could compromise supply.

Why Semiconductors Are Critical in Defence Systems

Semiconductors are the core components that power nearly every modern defence system, from avionics and communications to weapons systems and artificial intelligence applications. In fact, the reliance on advanced integrated circuits (ICs) is only increasing as military platforms become more digitally sophisticated. As defence engineers, we are tasked with ensuring that the semiconductors chosen today will still be available and serviceable decades into the future.

The global semiconductor shortage of 2020-2022 exposed the vulnerabilities in this critical supply chain. Triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic and exacerbated by trade restrictions and geopolitical events, this shortage affected industries worldwide, including defence. Lead times for chips stretched to over 12 months, forcing some manufacturers to halt production or seek costly alternatives. This shortage illustrated the risk of overreliance on a single supply source, particularly from regions vulnerable to geopolitical tension.

Key Strategies for Mitigating Semiconductor Obsolescence

To prevent future disruptions, engineers must integrate obsolescence mitigation strategies directly into their system design and supply chain planning. Below are key approaches for managing semiconductor obsolescence in defence systems.

1. Design with Long-Term Semiconductor Availability in Mind

Semiconductors have varying lifecycles, with some components becoming obsolete within just a few years. As a result, selecting semiconductors based solely on current performance and cost can lead to significant problems down the road. Defence engineers need to prioritise components that offer long-term support and availability.

One strategy is to work with suppliers that specialise in long-life semiconductors. Some manufacturers, such as those within the aerospace and defence sectors, provide “military-grade” semiconductors with extended production cycles and support. It’s also important to build relationships with suppliers who offer end-of-life (EOL) notifications and last-time-buy options, which provide early warnings when a component is nearing discontinuation.

Additionally, engineers can explore solutions such as component replication or reverse engineering, which may offer a lifeline when critical parts are no longer available.

2. Adopt Modular and Open System Architectures (OSA)

Designing systems with modular architectures allows for flexibility in replacing or upgrading individual components, including semiconductors, without requiring an overhaul of the entire platform. By using open system architectures (OSA), engineers can swap out semiconductors as newer, more advanced chips become available or if a current model becomes obsolete.

In defence, this approach has already been successfully implemented in platforms such as the F-35 fighter jet and the U.S. Navy’s Aegis Combat System, where modular avionics allow for ongoing upgrades. This flexibility reduces long-term reliance on any single semiconductor or supplier, allowing defence platforms to evolve over time without becoming outdated.

3. Diversify the Semiconductor Supply Chain

The semiconductor supply chain is highly globalised and concentrated in certain regions, making it vulnerable to geopolitical risks. As of 2023, Taiwan produces more than 60% of the world’s semiconductors, with companies like TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) being critical suppliers for many industries, including defence. The U.S.-China trade war, tensions over Taiwan’s political status, and export restrictions have all introduced uncertainty into this supply chain. To mitigate these risks, engineers should diversify their semiconductor sourcing. This involves establishing relationships with multiple suppliers across different regions, including those in allied nations or countries less susceptible to geopolitical disruption. Additionally, engineers can explore opportunities to source from domestic or localised manufacturers, which governments in the U.S. and Europe are actively promoting through incentives to reduce reliance on Asia-based semiconductor production. For example, the CHIPS and Science Act passed by the U.S. in 2022 aims to bolster domestic semiconductor manufacturing capabilities, offering billions of dollars in subsidies to encourage investment in local chip production. For defence engineers, this represents a key opportunity to engage with domestic suppliers and reduce dependence on international sources.

4. Leverage Semiconductor Forecasting Tools

Staying ahead of obsolescence also requires anticipating when a specific semiconductor may become unavailable. Today’s digital tools allow for advanced lifecycle forecasting that predicts when components, including semiconductors, are likely to be discontinued or when supply chain disruptions may affect availability.

Using obsolescence management software, engineers can monitor the health of their semiconductor supply and receive alerts for potential risks. This proactive approach allows for more effective planning, giving engineers time to find alternatives or secure additional stock before the component becomes obsolete. These tools are particularly useful when dealing with highly specialised or custom semiconductors, which may have limited alternatives available.

5. Collaborate with Semiconductor Suppliers for Custom Solutions

In some cases, a proactive approach to obsolescence may involve direct collaboration with semiconductor manufacturers. Custom solutions, such as designing semiconductors tailored to defence-specific needs, can help ensure a long-term supply of critical components. Collaborating with manufacturers on bespoke semiconductor designs can also provide higher levels of security and ensure that these components meet the stringent standards of military systems.

Moreover, working with suppliers that have robust obsolescence management strategies, including offering redesigned or upgraded versions of older chips, can prevent unexpected supply chain disruptions. Strategic partnerships with semiconductor manufacturers can be a valuable asset in managing obsolescence in defence systems.

Navigating Geopolitical and Supply Chain Challenges

Geopolitical instability continues to pose significant risks to semiconductor availability. The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, for example, had far-reaching impacts on the global supply of neon gas, a critical material used in semiconductor production. At the same time, U.S. export restrictions on advanced semiconductors to China have further strained global supply chains. Defence engineers need to remain vigilant in monitoring geopolitical developments that could impact the semiconductor market. Building supply chain resilience through diversification, stockpiling critical components, and leveraging forecasting tools can help defence organisations navigate these external risks.

Looking Ahead: A Future-Proof Approach to Semiconductor Obsolescence

The future of defence technology is increasingly reliant on semiconductors, making obsolescence mitigation more critical than ever. As advancements in artificial intelligence, autonomous systems, and quantum computing continue to accelerate, the need for flexible, modular designs that can accommodate new semiconductor technologies will only grow.

At Force Technologies, we specialise in helping engineers navigate these challenges. Our expertise in obsolescence management, component sourcing, Long Term Storage, Assembly and supply chain strategy ensures that defence systems are designed to withstand the test of time. By working with trusted partners and staying ahead of geopolitical and technological trends, we enable our clients to future-proof their defence platforms and maintain operational readiness for decades to come.

Together, we can overcome the challenges of semiconductor obsolescence and ensure that today’s defence systems remain at the cutting edge of technology, even in an uncertain world. Get in touch with one of our teamt o find out more...