Observations From the Rink: An Art or a Science?

Preface to Observations From the Rink:  An Art or a Science? 

I’m only three years into my journey in the scouting world. I don’t have all the answers, and I certainly have made my share of mistakes over that time. I’m learning and growing every time I walk into the rink.

Being open minded, objective, asking questions when uncertain and being focused every time I evaluate is critical.

Being open to learn, share and grow is something I take great pride in when scouting and I’ve have tried to talk with a lot of fellow QMJHL Scouts and NHL scouts alike.

I’ve learned a lot about the game, the players, and coaches, over that time, but more importantly I’ve learned a lot about myself.

Every time I set foot in a rink, I keep certain examples of players and experiences in the back of my mind, I’m not sure if other scouts do that, but I sure do.

Usually those examples are the mistakes that I’ve made, whether that’s an incorrect projection or assessment, I file all those instances away so I don’t make the same mistake again.

When I evaluate players I try not to make too many comparisons, but in my opinion making comparisons certainly plays a role in the process.   

Making comparisons is critical, but I always try to frame it this way when conferencing with other scouts in the game.

‘Player A plays like or has a lot of similarities to Player B.’

It’s certainly not fair to compare all young developing players to established players playing in the league or even in the pro ranks for that matter.

In a lot of cases I feel it may blur your judgment or assessment of the player. Nevertheless, it’s always important to have a benchmark and in a way that benchmark for me always goes back to my hockey knowledge, coaching experience and instincts, which I believe is as important as any aspect of the scouting process.

So how do NHL scouts project and predict future success and player development at 18, 19, 20 and beyond?

There’s no easy answer to that, as discussed there’s not an exact science and there are no perfect solutions to that question. However, every NHL Scout that I know works extremely hard, they study every aspect of each player they evaluate and they use their experience and expertise to form their evaluations and reports. 

Talking to NHL Scouts has certainly helped my transition into the scouting world.  Nevertheless, one sure thing that I did find out over time is the more questions I asked the more insight I gain. 

Clearly, I’ve never been afraid to ask questions and I think that’s an invaluable skill to possess.  Having access to NHL Scouts over the past few years and beyond has been a tremendous asset, but at the end of the day, you have to trust your ability.  

Emulation is one thing, forging your own personal style is another.

There’s no question you have to be confident and formulate personal opinions about players when evaluating them.  The really interesting aspect about being part of QMJHL Central Scouting is that I can still have open conversations about draft eligible prospects with individual team personnel, but at the end of the day, my evaluation or report is my own, it’s my opinion and sometimes I’m wrong. 

As a scout you have to trust your instincts, but that’s where the mistakes in your scouting past have to play a role in your scouting future.

I thought I would share some of my insight and perspective, not about certain players or their ranking on a list, but how there’s always the potential for mistakes to occur and to also showcase how subjective and difficult the scouting process can be, especially when you are trying to evaluate and project 15-year-olds.

Is there an exact science to scouting or is it an art? If there is an exact science, what’s the formula?

 Observations From the Rink: An Art or A Science? 

There’s no exact science or is there?

Scouting, evaluating, ranking and projecting is all part of the process, it comes with the territory, so you better be prepared.

Many have tried to perfect the art or science of scouting and there’s no doubt experience plays a massive role in that process.

Nevertheless, as one NHL scout told me ‘it’s hard to predict the intangibles.’

Ask any scout and they will probably have a list of names and countless stories of players who they doubted could have had an impact at the next level that eventually surprised them, proved them wrong and excelled.

Mistakes happen, after all we are all human, but in the scouting world those mistakes become magnified.

Missing out on a player or selecting a player that doesn’t make it, is certainly incomprehensible in this day and age especially given each organizations commitment to drafting and developing in the game today, however mistakes still happen.

I’ve always been one to ask a lot of questions.  Don’t ask me why, I guess it’s part of my DNA.  I was the player at practice that always asked questions. I’m sure it drove my teammates and coaches crazy. I wanted to know what to do under every circumstance, every situation. I didn’t want to be the player to let the team down.  I guess wanted to see the game differently.            

As a player, I was so scared to make a mistake, my search for perfection became crippling. When I finally realized mistake free hockey doesn’t exist I progressed drastically as a player. 

Fast-forward three decades, I still ask questions, and I’m getting paid to watch the game, but it goes beyond that.  I take my role as a scout very seriously, it’s not about the money, it’s about the experience and growing, so when I screw up, it hurts. 

Case in point. Last season, the buzz was out on a 16-year-old defencemen that was tearing up the Jr. A ranks in the Maritime Hockey League. The player in question went undrafted in the QMJHL. 

How could I have missed him? 

I went back to look at my notes, I had definitely watched the player on countless occasions, but why didn’t I see it? 

Why didn’t I identify his potential?  That’s my job, and to be brutally honest I felt like a failure. 

Fast forward to June, the night before the QMJHL Draft. As I sat having supper with a CSR colleague in Shawinigan, the player in question’s agent walks past the patio of the restaurant.  We talked about a few players, and he mentioned his player, I’m not sure who asked the question, but it went along the lines of; how high do you think the player would go? 

He gave us a semi cryptic answer, he clearly knew something we didn’t. One team had specifically identified him. 

My colleague had watched the player in question play and was very impressed with his skill and poise with the puck. What team would draft him?  How high would he go? 

How did a player with that skill set get passed over in his draft year? How could 18 teams miss on a present can’t miss prospect? 

Well it happened, and it will probably happen again! 

As hard as all the scouts work putting in all the hours these types of scenarios will happen, I hate to admit it, but it will. 

Oh yeah the 16-year-old phenom in question was Jordan Spence. I guess you could say the rest is history. 

Over the course of the next eight months I would see first hand what kind of player Jordan Spence was and would become at the “Q” level.  

In Spence’s case he developed physically, grew three inches, which in turn led to a quicker first step and stronger skating stride. 

Spence was the prototypical late bloomer, but the skill was always there, how could I have missed him. 18 teams missed out on Jordan Spence, but it’s the intangibles that Spence possessed that propelled him to the success. 

Hard work, dedication, character and determination, but more importantly an unwavering desire and drive to prove to people that he belonged. 

Spence channeled all the adversity of being passed over as extra motivation. 

The adversity fuelled him, you could say it galvanized him, it help shape the player and person he has become today. The young defencemen became relentless in his pursuit to get to the next level.  That’s the intangible, the inner drive of a player possesses that sometimes gets overlooked. 

As scouts we evaluate and project, but we can’t always predict physical growth and development, even if we try, there’s always going to be a case where a kid just develops differently.

We can try to get to the know player, their family, their character and personality, but at the end of the day we can’t predict a players physiological developmental progression.  Now I’m sure there are some exercise physiologists out there that will argue that. 

The first time I saw Jordan Spence play at the QMJHL level in the Moncton Wildcats Training Camp and Exhibition Games I was simply blown away. 

The question continued to haunt me, how could I have missed this guy? After the first week of the regular season, I ventured down to the Wildcats dressing room after yet another impressive performance by the young offensive minded defender.

By this time the secret was out, and many NHL Scouts were fascinated by Spence’s style of play. I wanted to write an article showcasing his journey to the QMJHL. 

After the interview, I shook his hand, thanked him for his time and apologized. ‘Jordan, let me tell you how sorry I am that I didn’t see your potential or have you higher on the list.’ 

The young soft-spoken defencemen smiled and responded, ‘oh that’s ok, don’t worry about it.’ 

I quickly replied, ‘Jordan I take my job as a regional scout very seriously, I take a lot of pride in it, I missed you big guy and for that I’m truly sorry.’ 

You see I carry Jordan Spence in the back of mind every time I watch a game now, I feel that’s my job, it’s my responsibility. I realize that players develop differently and at their own unique rate. 

I also understand that we can’t always predict a player’s intangibles and that when we rank players we try our hardest to project them at the next level. 

In my opinion, scouting isn’t an exact science, there’s no perfect formula, you can try to perfect it, try to make it as scientific as possible, but what I’ve learned over my time in the scouting game, that it’s an art form. 

Scouting is subjective, it lends itself to interpretation. Scouts project that’s the essence of the job, but that’s still up for interpretation. 

Every team, every scout may have a different list or evaluation of a player.  Every scout, every team has a different approach when formulating their list. There’s so many moving parts to the equation; Where’s the team drafting? What are the organizations needs? Who’s the coach? What cycle is the team in? What opportunity does the player have going forward? 

There’s always going to be questions, and many of those go unanswered until the player in question steps on to the ice.  

From my experience it’s all about learning and growing, but more importantly learning from your mistakes, gaining experience and channeling that into the next scouting experience. 

Every scout may have their top five “lookfors” or evaluation techniques when assessing and projecting players, but for me the mistakes will shape my future decisions, evaluations and projections.

As one NHL Pro Scout said, ‘you carry your mistakes with you, so you can learn from them.’ 

The learning process continues, and in the mean time I'm going to continue to pore my heart and soul into my projections and evaluations, but I’m sure there’s some players that will continue to prove me wrong!