Observations of a BLACK SWAN in the Squirrel Kingdom that is my garden...

This morning, like all work mornings, I got up early to make the tea for my wife and I. As part of that routine, I really enjoy looking out the kitchen window to hopefully see one of the many animals (squirrels, foxes, dear) we cohabit with, in the garden. My favourite of which is a squirrel who I call 'Alphie No tail,' I am not sure what he goes by... I digress, to my surprise, there were no animals to be seen this morning; moreover I was also reminded of the marquee established smack bang in the middle of the lawn - for this weekend's Oktoberfest Party we are hosting! I didn't think too much of this until I saw Alphie run down the nearest tree to the kitchen window and onto the lawn to try and see what opportunities this 'Black Swan' event would present!

I was then stuck by a few compounding thoughts which I will briefly outline below.

The first was just how totally unconnected my decision to host a party in the garden was from the daily activities of those I share the garden with. Clearly it is hard to communicate my intent, but when I started to look at it from a risk methodology perspective to empathize, I realized it was fairly inconsiderate. The aggregated risk profile for this time of year is fairly high in the Squirrel Kingdom - there are the constant secular risks of danger and predation with a slight elevation in linear exposure to this, but it was the cyclical risk born by the short window to harvest scarce resources (chestnuts) ready for the winter that had been disrupted and more pressing. Compounding these stated risks was the Sigma 5+ event of a marquee landing and disrupting traditional territorial agreements and long standing tribal boundaries, during this heightened period of resource tension - all increasing the economic incentives for violence.

This is truly an event outside the conventional wisdom of the lived squirrel experience: it is also exactly the same exposure we are facing as we transition into the Information Age and out of the Industrial Age; the change in the logic of human interaction.

The second observation: It was fascinating to see Alphie be the one who came down from safety into the new paradigm and apply his own version of the 'Cynefin model' - a new chaotic space where the conventional wisdom might no longer apply and so ACT, sense and respond - it is this dare devil approach which probably lost him his tail in the first place but has kept him plump ever since regardless. Interestingly, to the infrequent observer, one would be forgiven by first impression, that Alphie is disabled or perceived as being less successful as the other Squirrel's. It is actually the opposite, his experiences good and bad have led him to realise that although this is a paradigm shift with a myriad of complexity and implication, he knows he had been here before and that to ACT and be part of truth discovery for the new system is painful, but best done on your terms before it is done to you.

I then thought about how we all carry scares, wounds and experience that bias our own decision making both rightly or wrongly judged by society or the laws of nature in its purest form of competition in a complex adaptive system. We should not feel ashamed of our scars or feel less adequate in there attainment. We also should not boost or brag of them; Alphie is just getting on with the work at hand, finding an edge in his competitive environment, he is humble but self-aware in an assertive manner.

Ultimately, it is the summation of his experiences that have led him to make the judgement call to move out on the conventional risk curve, thus achieve his goals, and as a consequence, normalize the paradigm shift for the others in the Kingdom - this afternoon - they are all out, re-establishing new territorial boundaries and trying to work out what the marquee means both in terms of the 'Macro economic' as well as 'Geo-strategic' implications.

In an age of ever accelerating and compounding risk events, that shake and break the old logics of our conventional wisdom and world, trust in the old ways of working, living, or as I once heard it put, 'trying to be like a snake forcing the future back into it's old skin,' is folly. Better to embrace, whatever the consequences, go with the flow, feel the change and adapt through action. Better to focus ones energies on enhancing the reactive response methodologies, to build real time understanding into your decision making, rather than barriers or dams to the inevitable coming change.

And finally, be like Alphie, humble, industrious, true to himself and understanding of his own risk appetite and the gravity those decisions carry, both in consequences and mental resilience but also showing inadvertent leadership to his community...

Goodness knows what he will make of the German Oompa music at 6pm on Saturday night!