NZ Tech "Export" Revenue Rise Triggered by Trump Tariff Talk.

Since September 2024 the Kiwi dollar has declined in value by 10% (-20% since May 2021) against the US $, triggered in part by US President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on imports from major trading partners.

The implementation of tariffs is expected to increase inflation in the US market driving up interest rates to control it and demand for the US dollar; increasing the value of the US$ against other currencies.

Anticipation of these events has already driven the Kiwi dollar towards historic lows against the US$ not seen since the GFC or the early 2000’s.

The impact on the TIN200 (NZ’s 200 largest technology “exporters” in the areas of High-tech manufacturing, ICT and Biotechnology) if sustained will be profound.

It is potentially already reflected in the share prices of TIN listed companies heavily invested in the US market. F&P Healthcare, Xero and Rocket Lab are all at record highs with double-digit share price growth over the past twelve months (Jan 25 vs Jan 24).

F&P Healthcare +60%

Xero +57%

Rocket Labs +526%

Whilst the timing and strategy for US tariffs is not clear the benefits from an already decreasing NZD value are:

? Improved export revenue in NZD terms

? Improved productivity (RPE and profitability with NZD denominated revenue and NZ staff)

? Improved profitability

? Enhanced (cost-driven) global competitiveness

? Increasingly attractive targets for USD investors

? Lower relative valuations for USD investors

? Higher deal volume from international investors – seed rounds and acquisitions

? Likely that larger, scaled export-oriented firms will have outsized benefits from favourable currency shifts compared with smaller, early-stage companies or those domestically focused.

The NZ$ has been low before, so why is this a greater opportunity now?

? The US is a much more significant market than ten years ago with revenues growing by 139% to NZ$2.5B for TIN 200 companies.

? The number of large companies with Revenues over $200m has more than quadrupled in the past ten years to 16 in 2024 and will likely hit 20 in 2025

? The growth of these companies with high RPE (revenue per employee) will impact greatly on our domestic productivity

? NZ now has an established network of offshore investors which has grown greatly in the past decade

? Whilst the Healthtech and Fintech sectors (each approx. NZ$3b in revenue) have lead the growth of the TIN200 over the past two decades Cleantech is rapidly emerging as another major growth area, with a growing number of large investments coming into renewable energy technology and infrastructure opportunities, from investors locally and overseas; $17.5m to EV supercharging company Kwetta (2025), $23m raised by green hydrogen fuel company Fabrum (2023) NZ$600m by solar farm developer Lodestone Energy (up to $2024)

? TIN200 “Exports” i.e. offshore revenue from our 200 largest tech businesses has become a leading driver of NZ’s economic growth and remains on par with tourism despite the latter’s major recovery since COVID. In 2024 our ten highest growth tech exporters, (TIN’s” Ten Companies to Watch”) added close to NZ$1B (+19%) to their combined revenues.

? Tech represents NZ’s greatest opportunity for highly scalable economic growth, high productivity and high paid jobs compared to tourism or the primary sector.

The threat of high US import tariffs is a pandora’s box of uncertainty yet to be established. So too is the annexation of Greenland, or any other country ending in “land”, clearly islands are deserving less sovereignty. Why not Iceland, Ireland, New Zealand, or maybe just North Island or South Island (two places begging for a name change!)

However, the impact of a low NZD is a current opportunity that is already being factored into the growth expectations of some of our largest companies. As well as providing higher revenue and margin opportunities for companies already present in the US, it has the potential to create major windfalls that might not have otherwise existed.

New Line Cinema took a gamble on funding the Lord of the Rings Trilogy, when they realised in the late 90’s that the economies of scale for three movies in NZ, for the price of one in the US, with a low NZD at the time, made sense. That one deal helped create an industry and transform our capital.

By the end of 2025 the Revenue for the TIN200 will likely hit NZ$20B and include 20 companies with revenues over NZ$200.

Success finds its own way.

2025 will likely be A YEAR LIKE NO OTHER in terms of growth for our Tech “Exporters”

LET'S MAKE THIS HAPPEN!