NY City is at an important fork in the road

As I walk around the city and particularly in my Harlem community, I have started to notice small changes that remind me of NYC in the 80's. There are three telltale signs that foretell what is to come: the garbage and littered streets,  the increase number homeless and mentally ill people in the parks and the drug addicts who are shooting up openly on the streets. These telltale signs are the proverbial canary in the coal mine. They are the witch brew that mixing mental health impact of quarantining, the anxiety induced by the sharp economic decline, and the absence of leaders who can help guide us through these challenging times.

We are still not ready to deal with Covid-19

Covid-19 is not the worst pandemic the world has faced but even though we have lived through others like the Spanish flu, Americans seem wholly unprepared to deal with this one.  Moreover, given our advances in science and technology, there is an expectation that we should already have found a vaccine. 

Instead, the pandemic has only laid bare the paradoxes of inequality and injustices of American life. Our healthcare system and the economy are the best illustration of said paradox. As millions are impacted by Covid-19, the employment-based healthcare system has shown its limit. Similarly, as millions of people have lost their jobs, the stock market continue to do well, which shows the clear disconnect between wall street and main street.  

So, more than seven months the first case was confirmed in the US, more than 159,000 people have died and millions more infected. Still,  as of August we don’t still know how or if schools will reopen in September. In the meantime, one of the  best ways we know of preventing this illness is social distancing, which is the worst most difficult thing to do because our fundamental need for human connection. The full psychological trauma inflicted Covid-19 and its impact are yet-to-be-seen.  

What of the economy

On the economic front, the is in free fall.  According to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, “when President Trump took office in January 2017, he inherited an economy in its 91st month of economic expansion following the end of the Great Recession in June 2009. That expansion continued into 2020, becoming the longest on record, but a sharp contraction in economic activity arising from COVID-19 ended it.” 

72,842 businesses will never reopen again!

This contraction is reflected in the decimation of small businesses, the economy’s lifeblood. According to the Q2 2020 Yelp Economic Average report, more than “132,580 businesses listed on the Yelp review site remain closed due to the coronavirus pandemic.” Worst still, “the number of businesses that have permanently shuttered is rising. Of all the business closures since March 1, 55% (or 72,842 businesses) will never reopen again, which is up from the 41% that Yelp reported in its Local Economic Impact Report just last month.” These numbers help to partly explain the unemployment rate (https://www.bls.gov/web/laus/lauhsthl.htm) for a state like NY which is at a historic of high of 15.7 in June. In February of this year, NY’s unemployment was a historic 3.7%.  

The Leadership imperative

Our biggest challenge remains one of leadership in the midst of crises. While it is easy for elected leaders to standout during the good times, one’s leadership can truly be revealed once tested during the bad times. 

So goes NY city so goes the NY state.

In NY state we are experienced firsthand the importance of leadership. Our governor did a tremendous job steering the state through the crisis but his many spats with the mayor of NYC  – the state’s economic engine – was and continue to be counterproductive both for NYC and the state. So goes NY city so goes the state, which depend on taxes from the city. Many also question the Mayor’s leadership and indeed his decision-making has been shaky, to say the least but despite his many shortcomings, the mayor will be around for another year and whatever our policy disagreements and disappointments, citizens and elected officials alike must find ways to work with this Mayor to slow the city slide into disarray.

Fear of getting sick, anxiety about the economic downturn and uncertainty about the future make for a dangerous brew.

The convergence of people’s fear of getting sick, and of a deep and long-lasting economic downturn, has created a lot anxiety and uncertainty about the future, which affects our health and economic activity. People tend to limit their investments during times of uncertainty thus reinforcing the cycle of decline in economic activities.  How our leaders react and guide us through these perilous times will be determinant in how long and how bad this gets. So, the big question is: what do we do as residents and citizens of this country? 

During this time of uncertainty, we need leaders who can put the public good ahead of their own political ambitions. However, this may be too high an order given the upcoming electoral contests. In parallel or maybe even as an alternative, we need our local community leaders to step in to help fill the vacuum. From the church to community-based organizations, these leaders need to tap into the best of New Yorkers. In order to sustain our city during this crisis, our leaders must look within our communities to identity and leverage our human assets. While most people are either experiencing or anticipating the economic squeeze, it is in our best interest to support and help keep operational community organizations like soup kitchens, homeless shelters and most importantly drug rehab centers. 

It is a brave new world and we are on our own.

The absence of leadership of leadership at the federal level means that our community must look within to maintain a minimum level of normality but that will require collective awareness and actions.  People are scared, frustrated, angry and feel that the worst is yet to come. Indeed, the signs are already showing in the increase in crime rates. However, as New Yorkers, we have tremendous capacities to give and to act in big and small ways. For example, the increased in the homeless population has resulted in many scavenging in garbage bags for bottles that they can turn in for the 5-cent deposit. If buildings took the steps to pre-sort the recyclable bottles, this would be an act of kindness but also one that ensures that our garbage bags are not ripped open with the content strewn on the streets, which attract rodents that ultimately affect our health.  

Another example is the role of the church.  Harlem probably has one of the highest densities of church in the city, it is time that these faith leaders open their doors to the homeless and set aside funds to expand their soup kitchens and food banks.  As the gospel instructed, it is time to do to “the least of these,” who are the hungry, thirsty, homeless, naked, sick, and imprisoned. As the Department of Sanitation deals with a $100 million budget cut, our coop boards need to be talking to each other to not only keep our neighborhood clean but to spruce it up. The potentials are endless and their impact would benefit those who receive as well as those who give. 

NY City can be the beacon on the hill.

Our city can be a beacon for how major urban centers respond to the social challenges of the day but that will require leadership. From the governor down to community leaders and community boards, and more importantly each of us can ensure that we act in ways that advance the collective good and sustain our city’s quality of life.  Covid-19 could destroy all the progress we have made over the past two decades but it can also serve as a positive disruptor that gives us an opportunity to rethink our relationships with each other but also for policymakers to rethink how the city functions. We have a choice to fall into despair or band together to benefit our city and our communities. I trust our leaders will be up to the task but in their absence,  I trust in New Yorkers doing what they can to help our city thrive.