NVD Backlog Update the national crisis is over or vulnrichment taking over?

The National Vulnerability Database (NVD) is facing a substantial backlog, with over 12,000 unprocessed vulnerabilities. Recent announcements and initiatives aim to address this issue, promising significant improvements in the processing and enrichment of vulnerability data.

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Latest Developments

On May 29, 2024, NIST announced a new contract for additional processing support for incoming Common Vulnerabilities and Exposures (CVEs). This support is expected to restore the processing rates to levels maintained prior to February 2024 within the next few months. Additionally, NIST is collaborating with the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) to integrate these unprocessed CVEs into the NVD, aiming to clear the backlog by the end of the fiscal year.

The 2024 fiscal year began on October 1, 2023, and ends on September 30, 2024. With this timeline, NIST and CISA are working diligently to ensure the backlog is addressed before the fiscal year ends.

The Role of CISA's Vulnrichment Program

CISA's Vulnrichment program plays a crucial role in this initiative. By enriching CVE records with Common Platform Enumeration (CPE), Common Vulnerability Scoring System (CVSS), Common Weakness Enumeration (CWE), and Known Exploited Vulnerabilities (KEV) data, the program ensures that organizations have the information they need to prioritize and manage vulnerabilities effectively.

According to the Automation Working Group's report on May 22, CISA is currently analyzing and enriching approximately 200 vulnerabilities per day. Given the conservative estimate of 2,981 new vulnerabilities discovered each month, the combined efforts of NIST and CISA aim to clear the backlog within the next 10-11 months. This projection sets the target date for a clear backlog around March 2025.

Feasibility and Timeline

Using the provided data, the monthly progress and feasibility of clearing the backlog are outlined below, nontheless there is no promise that this timeline will be speed up as the nvd processing might start as early as September 24 based on the current fiscal year. so far we can rely on the enrichment from cisa timing February 25 as clear date for backlog 12 months from the beginning of the crisis

Challenges and Considerations

Several challenges could impact the timeline and success of the Burndown Initiative:

1. Resource Allocation: Sustained resource allocation, including funding and staffing, is critical. Any disruption could delay the progress.
2. Technological Integration: Implementing and optimizing new systems and tools for vulnerability analysis and enrichment is essential.
3. Coordination with CNAs: Effective collaboration with CVE Numbering Authorities (CNAs) is necessary to ensure timely and comprehensive data submission.

Data Quality Challenge currently clattering the NVD

Experts like Jay Jacobs have highlighted inconsistencies in data quality across different sources already present in the NVD. Whilst the NVD has always formed a data quality check now that the CNA are allowed to source data without much data quality check the performance and data quality might decrese.

These insights underscore the importance of direct data processing from reliable sources, asthe NVD or alternative data quality like Phoenix Security | ASPM or our partner VulnCheck .

Challenges with CWE

With Phoenix Security | ASPM we analyse data and identify patterns and have visualized them here:

In the NVD CWE type confusion where the base is the recommended value class, variant compounds and even pillars are used

The type als seems to be manually specified where some field have upper case and lower case

Phoenix Security's Approach

At Phoenix Security, we have developed a robust Vulnerability Intelligence solution that addresses these challenges head-on. By connecting to over 32 data sources, we ensure comprehensive and timely enrichment of CVE data. Our 4D contextual risk-based formula provides enhanced training and prioritization, enabling organizations to manage and mitigate vulnerabilities effectively.

Unlike the NVD, which faced disruptions due to subcontractor issues and budget constraints, Phoenix Security's approach ensures continuous and reliable access to enriched vulnerability data. This approach is further supported by the new CPE initiative, which aims to provide more data directly from the source of vulnerabilities

CWE type confusion where base is the recommended value class, variant compund and even pillar are used

Industry Insights and Future Outlook

While the current backlog presents a significant challenge, it is expected to be a one-time issue rather than a recurring problem. With sustained efforts and strategic initiatives, the NVD and CISA aim to restore normalcy in vulnerability processing and enrichment by March 2025.

For those interested in learning more about these developments and the real data behind the NVD, I will be at Infosecurity Europe on 4th - 5th to discuss more about this

Join the conversation on hashtags #cve, #nvd, #aspm, and #vulnerabilitymanagement to stay updated on the latest in vulnerability management.

even AI knows it:

Conclusion

The NVD backlog and the subsequent efforts to address it highlight the importance of robust vulnerability management practices. Through initiatives like CISA's Vulnrichment program and innovative solutions from Phoenix Security, the cybersecurity community is working towards a more resilient and responsive approach to managing vulnerabilities. By staying informed and proactive, organizations can better protect their systems and data from evolving cyber threats.

With a clear target date of March 2025 for resolving the current backlog, the cybersecurity community must remain vigilant and proactive in implementing effective vulnerability management strategies. This will not only improve organizational security but also contribute to the overall resilience of the nation's critical infrastructure.