By the Numbers

mahBY THE NUMBER$

05/10/21 Edition

1.    STOCKS - The S&P 500 is up +13.3% YTD (total return) through trading on 5/07/21. The split between “up” and “down” trading days YTD is 56/44, better than the 54/46 split achieved over the years 1950-2020. The S&P 500 consists of 500 stocks chosen for market size, liquidity and industry group representation. It is a market value weighted index with each stock's weight in the index proportionate to its market value (source: BTN Research).   

2.    BE A CONTRARIAN - The last 7 times that the S&P 500 index recorded a negative total return result over a trailing 12-month period, the index bounced back each time with a positive gain of at least +15% (total return) over the next 12 months. The 1-year average return of all 7 comebacks is +27.6% (total return). The most recent example was when the S&P 500 fell 7.0% (total return) for the 12 months ending 3/31/20 but bounced back with a +56.4% gain (total return) for the 12 months ending 3/31/21 (source: BTN Research).         

3.    A YEAR LATER - As of 4/30/20, our nation’s jobless rate was 14.8% with 23.1 million Americans out-of-work. As of 4/30/21, our jobless rate was 6.1% with 9.8 million Americans out-of-work (source: Department of Labor). 

4.    CONNECTED - From the end of 2020 through last Friday 5/07/21, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil has increased +34% (to $64.90 a barrel) while the average price of a gallon of gasoline has increased +31% (to $2.95 a gallon) (source: NYMEX, AAA).     

5.    FRONT AND CENTER - Dr. Anthony Fauci has been the Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases since 1984. Fauci, 80 years old, has served 7 Presidents – Reagan, Bush 41, Clinton, Bush 43, Obama, Trump and Biden (source: NIAID).

6.    LOWEST EVER - The nation’s “general fertility rate,” defined as the number of births per 1,000 women between the ages of 15-44, was just 55.8 births in 2020, a record low rate for birth data that has been tracked nationally since 1909 or for the last 112 years (source: National Center for Health Statistics). 

7.    FEWER KIDS - The United States recorded 3,605,201 births in 2020, the 6th consecutive year the total has declined, and the smallest number recorded nationally since 1979 (source: National Vital Statistics System).   

8.    NEW HOMES - 103,700 new single-family homes began construction in the United States in March 2021, the highest monthly total reported nationwide since June 2007 (source: Census Bureau). 

9.    BUCKS FROM THE GOVERNMENT - Pandemic stimulus payments to individuals and federal unemployment benefits made up 22% of the record-setting US personal income total reported by the government for March 2021. The same 2 categories made up just 3% of national personal income in January 2020, i.e., immediately before the pandemic began (source: Bureau of Economic Analysis).  

10.  TIME OFF WITH MONEY - One piece of the “American Families Plan” that President Biden proposed on 4/28/21 was a federally mandated “paid leave program” that would be phased in over a decade. At the end of 10 years, all US workers would be eligible for 12 weeks of paid leave (per year) under a variety of circumstances, including the birth of a child, the military deployment of a loved one, or recovery time needed following a serious illness. The worker taking “paid leave” could receive as much as $4,000 per month (source: American Families Plan). 

11.  BANKS - Through the first 4 months of 2021, no US bank had failed and required a financial bailout from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). There have been less than 10 banks that have failed in each of the last 6 calendar years, i.e., 2015-2020. 389 banks failed over the 3-year period 2009-2011 (source: FDIC).

12.  A MAJORITY STILL WENT TO COLLEGE - 66% of 2019 high school graduates (pre-pandemic) enrolled in college in the fall of 2019. 63% of 2020 high school graduates (after the pandemic started) enrolled in college in the fall of 2020 (source: Bureau of Labor Statistics).  

13.  FEWER PEOPLE AND FEWER TAXPAYERS - Between the 2010 census and the 2020 census, the population of 47 states increased but declined in 3 states – West Virginia, Mississippi and Illinois (source: Census Bureau).         

14.  THE LAST ELECTION - 155 million Americans voted in the November 2020 election that sent Joe Biden to the White House, 17 million more than the 138 million who voted in November 2016. The 155 million voters represent 67% of the nation’s citizens who are at least age 18 (source: Census Bureau).     

15.  IT’S ALL ABOUT THE MONEY - The NFL signed sponsorship agreements with 3 gambling companies in April 2021 to operate retail and online gambling in those states that permit betting. Ironically, the NFL sued the state of New Jersey just 9 years ago (2012) to stop legal sports wagering on pro football in that state (source: NFL).  

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Written and Copyrighted ? 2021 Michael A. Higley. All rights reserved. Email [email protected] for information. 

                                                          Past performance is not indicative of future results.  By The