The Nuclear Weapon of the Digital Age or a Force for Good?

Strategic Insights into the Use of GenAI.

This week I will make an exception and release a special edition of "Sigmoid Rider", inspired by World Economic Forum Davos Meetings, with only one article delving into some strategic insights into the use of GenAI driven by our learnings from a previous transforming technology "Nuclear Energy" which is something that I also have first-hand knowledge leading the commercial operations of a giant Nuclear Power Plant construction as I like working for causes that I support. You will understand what I mean if you take your time and read the rest of the article before lynching me.

One can argue that the world's biggest problems and, hence, the most significant opportunities were always around energy and capital throughout the 20th century. This importance made the biggest corporations of that century (for most of it) banks and oil companies. Even today, the 3rd highest-valued company in the world in market capitalization is Saudi Aramco, with more than 2 Trillion USD.

Many wars and conflicts arose from the fight to access energy and capital. Who controls the energy and capital would rule the world. For this very reason, energy and capital were always at the top of the governmental agendas, shaping their domestic and foreign policies. These two made the "KING" of the world "USA" (and the Queen "Europe") having the reference currency after the Second World War and the world's biggest energy companies in terms of total output. It was too important to leave it to the control of private companies only. These were societal entities having impacts, transcending profit only. These were utilities impacting the everyday life of ordinary people.

In the western democracies where the industries were private this was creating a symbiotic relationship between the industry and governments acting in tandem with the collaboration of central banks and private banks and energy ministries and big oil, in monarchies or some emerging markets these industries were even kept for a long time (even now) under the government sector as state corporations or under big scrutiny with central banks or related ministries.

Nuclear energy was a product of the convergence of energy and capital in governmental energy strategy as it was too big of a bite for private enterprises. It was an innovation with a huge promise of energy production efficiency via using a minimal amount of energy-producing material vs. coal and oil to produce much larger amounts of energy (per material) with more reserves vs. future energy needs. But it also has bigger security and waste risks to human and environmental life.

One other feature of this type of energy was being more capital-intensive than other types of energy. It was taking billions of dollars (and still is knowing with first-hand experience recently leading commercial operations of one giant NPP construction in Turkey) to build a reactor to produce this kind of energy. So, not every country could make this happen both in terms of know-how and financing. This was a good way of getting a competitive edge for big countries who both have the know-how and capital to make it happen. Today, there are still only a handful of countries who has the technology and capital to build nuclear power plants, and they tend to keep it that way even the industry is more privatized.

One of the interesting aspects of producing nuclear energy different than other sources is you end up creating a much bigger energy in the form of heat to produce steam to power a steam generator than other forms ( with coal or natural gas) as you can not control the amount of energy to reduce it to the just needed amount. That is why one of the biggest cost element of making a nuclear power plant is the cooling structures to be able to control the amount of heat through out the process from nuclear reactor to steam generator and water output.

Probably this nature of nuclear energy propelled the use of it as a weapon where you do not need to control but unleash all of it to make the biggest blast possible. Unfortunately this is also strategic for countries who are able to make it happen vs the majority who can not as the school of strategy teaches.

Net is a technology product where energy and capital can create a huge unfair advantage in terms of unique competence for the owners of this technology. Given the aspirations of the owner, this technology can be used for both good and bad reasons, like the relationship between any product, company and strategy.

To note, I am a supporter of Nuclear Energy as an element of the Green Energy mix to address the climate crisis faster coupled with innovation, making it safer and less wasteful (which I believe is possible with my innovation philosophy - the power of "AND") as I think there is no way to get to the 2030-50 targets without it only with renewable energy efforts which I also heartfully support.

In the last 30 years or so, energy and capital had two younger siblings in the family of "kingmakers" called "data" and "compute power." Like their older siblings, these two created the biggest corporations of our new world:

1) Apple ($2.99 trillion as of Jan. 1) - Data and Compute power.

2) Microsoft ($2.79 trillion as of Jan. 1) - Data and Compute power.

3) Saudi Aramco ($2.14 trillion as of Jan. 1) - Energy

4) Alphabet ($1.75 trillion as of Jan. 1) - Data and compute power.

5) Amazon ($1.57 trillion as of Jan. 1) - Data and compute power.

6) Nvidia ($1.22 trillion as of Jan. 1) - Compute power

7) Meta ($909.63 billion as of Dec. 2) - Data and compute power.

8) Tesla ($789.90 billion as of Jan. 1) - Energy, Data and Compute power.

9) Berkshire Hathaway ($783.55 billion as of Jan. 1)- Capital

10) Eli Lilly ($553.37 billion as of Jan. 1) Capital - Treating the diseases of overconsumption of sugar around obesity and diabetes.

Wow, 7/10 are propelled by data and compute power, 1/10 by energy production, 1/10 by capital, and 1/10 by cleaning up the mess created in the capitalist process of overconsumption.

So, the younger siblings mostly took over the helm from the older ones. Are we having a cyclical reconstruction of the world order around these two younger siblings now? Are we going to have conflicts and wars to access them? or is it already happening in a new form?

Do we know a technology akin to Nuclear (being a product of Energy and Capital) that can be the product of these two siblings (data and computing power) in terms of multiplying the efficiency of the intended outcome to even levels that are more than needed now, that can be weaponized thus can be very strategic in terms of creating an unfair advantage to the owners of it?

Yes it is "unfortunately and thank god" Generative Artificial Intelligence (GenAI).

Why is it, unfortunately? It is because the unfair advantage it creates is so big that under the hands of the wrong owners, it can also turn into a weapon like nuclear with unprecedented damage to humanity and world order. It has risks and unintended consequences like nuclear waste. It can be used for unethical purposes like deep fakes and disinformation for creating biased opinions to threaten democratic elections. It can be used to steal creativity of artists. It can make people lose their jobs as they become obsolete or replaced with cyber workers of GenAI.

Why is it thank god ? Because it is also not only a technology for profit but a societal imperative that can democratize the creativity and productivity of billions of people to live a better life. It can be used to augment the innovation capabilities of vital industries like health care (as nuclear also does) and education for the good of humanity. It can be used to alter the unintended consequences of using carbon fuels for energy, helping the innovations needed to fix the climate crisis. It can create new and more jobs (than lost) around this unique ecosystem, transcending technology companies into all employers of the world, private and public.

I support GenAI as I support Nuclear Energy. I see more good in it than evil and believe in humanity's collective wisdom to make better use of it than evil to address the world's biggest challenges, like climate crisis, income inequality, hunger, pandemics, education quality, etc. GenAI has the power to democratize the capabilities needed to make them happen, and we need more people involved to solve these global problems.

It is all about learning from the case of nuclear and make sure we collectively push GenAI towards a future about creating more good than evil.

But we should not be naive. We should also consider the differences between GenAI and Nuclear when designing a future with GenAI.

GenAI focuses on artificial intelligence, aiming to replicate or surpass human cognitive abilities. Nuclear energy primarily deals with power generation and to some extent health. The scope and implications of GenAI extend into everything we live with, requiring a more comprehensive approach to its management.

With its highly specialized knowledge and high capital intensiveness, nuclear technology was and is limited in accessibility, driven by the power-hunger of countries. GenAI, on the other hand, is more widely accessible (thanks to the private creators of the technology supporting the open source mentality different than the owners of Nuclear technology) with potential applications across all industries. This accessibility poses challenges in ensuring responsible deployment and preventing misuse.

The pace of GenAI development is unprecedented. Unlike nuclear technology, which evolved over decades, GenAI is rapidly advancing. This necessitates agile regulatory frameworks and ethical considerations that can adapt to the evolving landscape. We have much less time.

Prerequisites for a Better Outcome with GenAI

1. Ethical Frameworks: Establishing robust ethical frameworks is paramount. Ethical guidelines should govern the development, deployment, and use of GenAI to ensure alignment with human values and prevent unintended consequences.

2. Global Governance: International collaboration is essential. Establishing global governance mechanisms, standards, and agreements will help manage GenAI's evolution on a global scale, preventing unilateral decisions that could lead to misuse.

3. Transparency and Accountability: Developers and organizations must prioritize transparency in their GenAI systems, making them open source. This includes explaining decision-making processes, disclosing biases, and being accountable for the system's actions.

4. Inclusive Decision-Making: Involve diverse voices in GenAI decision-making processes. A multiperspective approach ensures that the technology benefits all of humanity and mitigates the risk of biases that could be inadvertently embedded in GenAI systems.

5. Continuous Assessment and Adaptation: Regular assessments of GenAI's impact on society and the flexibility to adapt regulations and frameworks as needed are essential. This approach allows for iterative improvements and the mitigation of unforeseen consequences.

We need conversation, collaboration, consensus, and bodies that facilitate these to make all these happen. This week's WEF Davos meetings were a good example of having businesses, NGOs, academia, and governments around the same table with the theme of TRUST. It was great to see Sam Altman and Satya Nadella of the GenAI world, among other CEOs and world leaders, talking about the future of the world with GenAI with humility and vulnerability, not knowing all the answers but looking to find them together with conversation, collaboration, and consensus.

Learning from historical mistakes, understanding the similarities and differences, and implementing robust prerequisites can pave the way for a positive and responsible integration of General Artificial Intelligence into our society.

Keeping an open mind and not demonizing GenAI like we did for Nuclear energy is a good start, as GenAI has much less deadly consequences in the near future.

Lets not miss the opportunity to invest our energies to learn, use and develop it to make it safer with less unintended consequences as we did for Nuclear Energy (we could have beed in a much better shape in climate efforts if this was the case for nuclear). Let's proactively address ethical concerns, foster global collaboration, and remain vigilant in the face of rapid technological advancement; we can navigate the path of GenAI with foresight and responsibility much better than we did with Nuclear Energy.

May the force (for good use of GenAI) be with you.

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Cheers,

C.Firat Caliskan