Nuclear Fusion update

Abundant carbon-free energy from nuclear fusion has long been regarded as the ultimate goal. Recent technological advancements and the emergence of startup companies have sparked new optimism, but experts warn that the realization of fusion power is still a distant prospect.

Frank Laukien, a German-American physicist and billionaire entrepreneur, recently took the stage at the annual Forum Fusion in Berlin and he seemed exhilarated. He confidently proclaimed that within two decades, scientists would be able to replicate the process that powers the sun and harness it to generate infinite green energy on Earth. Laukien emphasized the importance of fusion as the third pillar alongside wind farms and solar panels to achieve a fully renewable energy supply, stating that "fusion is the key to a decarbonized future."

Observers may be forgiven for greeting Laukien's claims with skepticism. Fusion has been a topic of discussion for so long and has faced such monumental challenges that its realization, if at all, has always appeared to be in the distant future. Some critics argue that pursuing fusion is a distraction from more immediate actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

However, recent technological breakthroughs in the United States and the United Kingdom, coupled with concerns over global energy supplies, have shifted the focus back to fusion. In December, scientists at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories in California achieved fusion ignition, a self-sustaining nuclear fusion reaction. In late 2021, researchers at the Joint European Torus in the UK produced a plasma that generated 11 megawatts of power over a significant period. Private fusion companies are now receiving funding from government entities such as the US Department of Energy, as well as the German and UK governments. Additionally, private investors have injected over $4.7 billion into fusion energy startups, according to a 2022 survey by the Fusion Industry Association.

Scientists have been studying nuclear fusion, which combines atoms to generate energy, since the 1950s. However, due to the perceived difficulties and high costs associated with building an actual power plant, research and development have primarily been left to government-funded projects. Failures and delays have become so ingrained that an oft-quoted joke asks, "Do you know the fusion constant?" The punchline: "Success is always 30 years away."

The largest fusion project in the world, the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER), was initiated in 1985 by Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev. The project, currently under construction in Cardache, France, is overseen by 35 governments and has yet to produce tangible results.

Today, a growing number of entrepreneurs and scientists believe that a different approach is necessary, with smaller and more agile private companies having a better chance of achieving a functioning fusion reactor. Sibylle Günter, director of the Max Planck Institute for Plasma Physics in Germany, asserts that fusion research has made significant strides in the past two years and is edging closer to the vision of an inexhaustible energy source.

Frank Laukien recently co-founded Gauss Fusion with a group of "deep tech" entrepreneurs, naming it after the German mathematician. The company brings together top scientists and high-tech firms from Italy, Spain, France, and Germany, covering all relevant fields in fusion research, from magnets to surface materials.

Gauss is just one of more than 30 startups that have emerged in recent years, all competing in the global race to deliver fusion energy. Projected timelines vary, with U.S.-based startup Helion claiming it will deliver fusion electricity to Microsoft by 2028. However, this deal is largely seen as a publicity stunt, as having a grid-ready fusion reactor within five years is highly unlikely. Other companies claim they will develop a prototype reactor in the early 2030s.

According to researchers at Princeton University, the estimated cost of a 1,000-megawatt fusion plant ranges from $2.7 billion to $9.7 billion. Laukien estimates a cost of around $11 billion for a commercial power plant generating 2,000 to 3,000 megawatts.

Tony Donné, CEO of EuroFusion, an organization that brings together Europe's leading fusion research institutions, stated that private companies' claims of delivering fusion energy within ten years are primarily aimed at attracting funding. Donné emphasized the need to combine venture capitalist speed with the holistic views of public research.

Nuclear fission and nuclear fusion both utilize energy-rich neutrons to heat water, which then powers turbines to generate electricity. However, the methods differ fundamentally. Nuclear fission splits large uranium atoms to trigger a chain reaction, releasing neutrons. In nuclear fusion, two hydrogen atoms are forced to combine and form a helium atom. This process also releases neutrons for heating water but with crucial distinctions.

Unlike nuclear fission reactors that can experience meltdowns and release massive radiation, nuclear fusion reactors simply shut down if disturbed. Fusion reactors also do not produce highly radioactive waste requiring long-term storage. One fuel component, a non-radioactive hydrogen isotope called deuterium, is abundantly available in nature. The second isotope, tritium, is rare but can be chemically produced and recycled within the reactor by interacting it with lithium in the chamber walls. Fusion proponents claim that a single gram of fuel can produce as much energy as 11 tons of coal, with zero CO2 emissions.

In December 2022, scientists at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory made headlines by initiating fusion through laser beams, yielding slightly more energy than required to start the process. While considered a "truly monumental" first step, according to LLNL director Kimberly Budil, significant challenges remain. Researchers point out that the energy gain from laser fusion needs to be much higher to produce electricity commercially. Scaling up the process and achieving the necessary energy gain is still a significant hurdle.

Focused Energy, a company with labs and offices in Austin, Texas, and Darmstadt, Germany, aims to overcome these challenges. They plan to build a laser-fusion demonstration facility in Hesse, Germany, between 2028 and 2030 and launch the first demonstration power plant, called SuperNova, in Austin by 2037, with a planned capacity of 300 to 500 megawatts.

Focused Energy received $46 million in funding from a recent U.S. Department of Energy competition and received nearly $50 million in funding from SPRIN-D, the German government agency responsible for advancing breakthrough innovations.

Some experts express skepticism about Focused Energy's timeline, highlighting the technological challenges that laser fusion still needs to address. Nevertheless, Laukien believes in the potential of a different technology called magnetic-confinement fusion, which has a longer history and is more thoroughly tested. Gauss Fusion intends to build its reactors within Germany's decommissioned coal and nuclear fission power plants.

In magnetic fusion, a large chamber surrounded by powerful magnets is used to confine and heat hydrogen gas to form plasma. The plasma, composed of charged particles, is held in place by the magnets and a vacuum, never touching the walls. The aim is to increase heat and pressure until fusion occurs, producing more energy than required to create the plasma. For ITER, the objective is to generate 500 megawatts of power, equivalent to a medium-sized coal-fired power plant, with an input of 50 megawatts.

Magnetic confinement fusion has also seen recent breakthroughs, such as the production of a record-breaking 11-megawatt plasma at the Joint European Torus in December 2021.

Regardless of when these startups achieve their goals, if at all, they are likely to surpass ITER, which has encountered significant delays. ITER's primary objective was to create a stable plasma for more than 400 seconds. However, welding and thermal shield defects discovered in late 2022 have prolonged the project's timeline. Fixing these flaws could take several years. Moreover, ITER is not designed to produce electricity for the grid; its purpose is to demonstrate the technology leading to the eventual construction of a commercial power plant known as DEMO.

Fusion startups argue that ITER's main obstacle is the complex challenge of aligning bureaucracies across 35 nations and securing sufficient government financing. They believe that startups, with their streamlined structures and private funding sources, are better positioned to overcome these obstacles.

While fusion offers potential benefits, some scientists caution against pursuing it as a primary energy source due to the challenges that still lie ahead. Stefan Rahmstorf, a climate scientist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, believes that resources should be focused on renewable energy and energy efficiency to address the climate crisis. Fusion scientists and entrepreneurs agree that expanding renewables should be a priority, aiming for 100 percent renewable energy sources by 2045. However, they argue that a reliable electricity source is needed for heating, as well as for trucks and aircraft. Fusion energy is seen as a potential solution for these needs.

Frank Laukien goes further, emphasizing the importance of achieving negative emissions, a central aspect of avoiding catastrophic climate impacts. He believes fusion energy is necessary not only to replace fossil fuels but also to capture carbon dioxide directly from the atmosphere. While fusion faces challenges, Laukien remains broadly optimistic, even though he believes laser fusion energy is unlikely before the 2040s. Gauss Fusion focuses on magnetic-confinement fusion, a technology Laukien believes is more mature and feasible. The company plans to build reactors within Germany's retired coal and nuclear fission power plants.

While fusion energy has faced significant obstacles in the past, recent technological advancements and the emergence of private fusion startups have reinvigorated interest in its potential. These startups aim to deliver functioning fusion reactors sooner than large-scale government-funded projects like ITER. However, challenges remain, and timelines are uncertain. Some experts advise focusing on renewable energy and energy efficiency, while fusion scientists and entrepreneurs argue that fusion energy can play a vital role in achieving a fully renewable and decarbonized future.