The Nuanced Abortion Model

The US Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs v. Jackson in 2022 has proven to be immensely consequential. Two years later, Change Research polled 2,745 likely voters (1,240 men, 1,457 women) nationwide from April 17-22, 2024.?The study found that since the Dobbs decision, 60% of US women feel like their rights are slipping away; and 56% of women (42% of men) identify women losing their bodily autonomy as a problem.

From the overwhelming vote on the Kansas Constitutional Amendment to poll after poll showing increased voter enthusiasm among supporters of reproductive rights, it has become clear that Democrats need to harness this energy to persuade independents and turn out left-leaning voters nationwide.?

Change Research has developed model scores that not only estimate each registered voter’s support for abortion rights, but also models more nuanced feelings about abortion in a given region or district so that users may tailor language accordingly, and more accurately optimize digital, mail, and field targeting and outreach.

Nuanced questions

In contrast to the existing abortion-related models on the market, Change Research’s models predict the answer to more nuanced questions, which is critical for targeted outreach, rather than just producing a single number to estimate how someone generically feels about abortion. Change Research can provide estimated scores for every registered voter in your district or region, allowing you to target voters with tailored messaging, and to segment your district’s voting population into three distinct categories:

Which of the following statements comes closest to your views:

1. I am personally against abortion, but I do not believe the government should prevent a woman from making that decision for herself.
2. I personally believe having an abortion is wrong and should be illegal.
3. I personally support a woman’s right to abortion and believe it should be legal and available.

Up-to-date scores for a changed environment

With new laws being passed, Supreme Court hearings taking place, and bombshell stories in the news regularly, it is important to utilize models that leverage up-to-date data.

Because of the volume of responses that we?collect each week, our model is trained using the most up-to-date data and understands where people are today, rather than where they were last year or in the last decade. After the last question of every survey that Change Research fields, we ask respondents a set of standard questions to understand the changing political environment. We’ve collected hundreds of thousands of responses to a number of different abortion questions over the last two years.?

How to use these scores

These more nuanced questions allow you to target your outreach more precisely with more finely tuned messaging. Messages that emphasize a more freedom-oriented approach to abortion will likely resonate well with those who don’t believe that the government should limit abortion.

• In electoral contexts, we recommend using these scores in conjunction with existing turnout and support scores to build targeted persuasion and turnout tiers. By combining together these different scores, you will be able to precisely target your messages and audiences for maximum effect.

• These scores can also be effective for targeting volunteer activation and mobilization. By targeting those with high scores for a particular answer, you can make sure that you are reaching those who are most likely to connect their legislators, attend rallies, and volunteer their time.

Magnify AI Targeting Models: Less Waste, More Winning

Talking to the right people is crucial. Magnify AI Targeting streamlines strategic communication to the voters who will help you win.?

Magnify AI Targeting is powered by Change Research’s groundbreaking and innovative AI models. This technology allows us to offer highly accurate targeting models for a fraction of the price of traditional solutions. Learn more.?