Nowhere To Turn: The crisis of Afghan refugees in Iran

As the drought now continues to exact a heavy toll on the human and natural environment for the third year running, the dispute between Kabul and Tehran, now well into its second century has taken the limelight again in 2023. Afghanistan and Iran are both characterized by an arid climate and face frequent water scarcity. In recent times, with the climate change has been the cause for a continued spike in more frequent and intense droughts, heatwaves and temperature rises in the Helmand River Basin. Communities on both sides of the border who rely heavily on this river for their survival, have been severely affected and yet a solution does not seem to appear in the horizon.

Water, more precious than gold, has historically played a significant role in the relationship between Afghanistan and its downstream neighbor, Iran. The conflict over who is entitled to how much of the water dates back to the British government establishing the border between the two countries some 150 years ago. And now yet again, Afghanistan and Iran have been at loggerheads for much of this year over the Helmand River and its water. And now on the third year of the drought plaguing both countries and the people in those areas, the two neighboring countries have been locked in a tense melee over shared transboundary rivers. The Taliban side continues the claim that there is just not enough water to provide Iran with greater amounts while the Iranian government continues to assert its right over water from the Helmand river as per the 1973 Afghan-Iranian Helmand Water Treaty.

The issue of Helmand River was a contentious issue under the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan as well as former President Ghani was often criticized by his Iranian counterparts for putting in place restrict regime and regulations in controlling the water and at times of using the water as a political leverage. In March 2021, Ashraf Ghani inaugurated the Kamal Khan Band saying “from today, the control of water in the province is now in the hands of Afghans”, and stressed that from now on, Afghanistan “would no longer give free water to anyone”, while “Iran can get extra water if it gives oil in return”.

After the start of the second Taliban era in Afghanistan, Iran contributed to the solution of the Afghan Problem by supporting various diplomatic processes. They also developed de facto relations with the Taliban and attended various conferences. Although Iran demands an inclusive government in Afghanistan, it is also seen that Afghanistan has handed over the Tehran Embassy to the Taliban. Preventing the US from returning to Afghanistan and limiting the activities of Takfiri terrorist organizations, including DAESH, are among the primary objectives of the Tehran administration. However, it should also be noted that the Taliban-Iranian relations are not completely solid. Traditional problems such as the Water Issue continue to complicate relations between Afghanistan and Iran. The use of water resources between the Helmend and Herirod rivers has occasionally caused disagreements between the parties and the disputes over the sharing of the Helmend River come to the fore.

However, the general tendency of the decision makers in Kabul is to take less water or cut off the water flow altogether, even beyond Iran’s rights. This is a violation of the agreement. For example, during the first Taliban era, the Taliban administration did not allow any flow of water to Iran. During the republic era, the Afghan decision-makers brought the “water for oil” formula to the agenda, used this issue as a bargaining chip, and tried to gain gains by putting forward the water trump card in meeting Afghanistan’s energy needs.

Also, before August 15, 2021, Afghanistan tried to build dams in a way that would disrupt the existing water regime. During the second Taliban period, the conflict continued, although the Taliban regime provided water flow to Iran from time to time. While the Taliban administration is trying to continue the construction of the dams initiated during the reigns of Hamid Karzai and Ashraf Ghani, this situation arises against Iran’s interests and expectations.

Currently, the Taliban’s biggest problem is that it has faced the problem of international recognition. Therefore, it would not be surprising if the Taliban developed a strategy that could be described as “recognition for water”. While the official state policy is that Iran does not like the international recognition of the Taliban administration and has not given any indication on this issue, the government of Iran has found another tool to counteract Taliban’s water restrictions.

In September 2023, the Iranian Interior Minister announced that the government of Iran is planning on deporting over 5 million illegal Afghan immigrants back to Afghanistan, with the daily number of voluntary and non-voluntary deportations reaching 3,000 to 4,500 daily. This was followed by the Iranian authorities doubling down and denying Afghans with temporary work permits and the right to seek employment as well as banning residence and work of Afghanistan in 16 states in Iran. Some of these refugees are those who have been living in Iran for decades and others are the members of the former government, human rights defenders, women’s rights activists and members of the ANDSF who had to leave the country after the collapse of the government in August 2021 in fear of Taliban’s extrajudicial reprisals.

As it stands, it does not take long to decipher the intention of the Iranian authorities behind this mass deportation is the spat between Iran and the Taliban over the cross-border water resources. In addition, Tehran, for some time, has complained of receiving little assistance from international agencies despite hosting one of the largest populations of Afghan refugees. Whether Tehran is simply seeking leveraging the refugees and migrants to gain access to the Helmand River waters or some level of financial assistance for its humanitarian gestures remains to be seen, however the leap is not too long to make a call on this one.

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