Now What?

I've been thinking a lot lately about the state of our global economy, domestic markets, interest rate policy and the banking system. As I've spent countless hours researching where we are, how we got here and where we're going, I keep coming back to the same word: Accountability.

At the intersection of where we are in our professional lives, global economy, politics and science is: accountability (or a lack thereof). From Jordan Peterson's "Get your own house in order" concept, to Jeffrey Snider's "Eurodollar University", to Milton Friedman's "Robber Baron Myth" there are several mentors and examples for us to listen to that are offering different perspectives than the ones that aren't, haven't and won't work.

If we don't start thinking for ourselves (by reading, listening, questioning and communicating) and actually identifying the REAL problem, we may find our nation going further into the abyss; and it all boils down to accountability. How can we continue to vote or appoint the same "leaders" that have failed us for more than two decades? How can the Fed continue down a well worn path that leads to the exact opposite result they say they want (deflation)? Why doesn't America speak up when the math/facts don't add up? Why is dialogue dying, where is journalism, what happened to humility? Where did critical thinking go? Why are myths accepted as truth? Accountability.

In my life, I've had the pleasure of working and/or playing on some really great teams and some really bad ones. I find when the team believes it has a chance to win, it generally figures out a way to work together and accomplish that goal or at least give it a hell of a go. However, when it looks like the team can't win, human nature's survival instinct moves into Plan B and "mini teams" pop-up. These teams begin to pick internal battles they think they can win, even if it really means its going to guarantee a loss in the score that counts. Human psychology is odd, isn't it?

If we expect to see positive results and change, we must be willing to have hard conversations, admit when we just don't know the answer, share ideas and most importantly hold ourselves and others accountable in the most respectful way possible. In other words, it doesn't matter what you SAY, it matters what you DO and we measure the success of what was DONE by the RESULTS. We lost our way when we decided to celebrate what someone said, inferring their intention from their words, regardless of what they did and most disturbingly: when the results were not correct, we said nothing, did nothing and no one was held accountable. Remember when we didn't judge a book by its cover? Remember when we were all on the same team? Remember when results mattered more than intention?

Bringing this back home to our markets, how long are we going to watch Global Quantitative Easing FAIL to create inflation, good paying jobs or lasting REAL recovery and think if we just waste more money (and time) it will work? This is the Einstein definition of insanity. And instead of admitting it doesn't work, admitting we don't have the answer and working TOGETHER to solve the problem, we're going to spend trillions more on short term stimulus we know won't work (because it NEVER has! Japan, Europe, US, China, etc. have tried it over and over for years and, in Japan's case, decades)? The reason "capitalism" is failing is because WE are failing. What we need now is leadership. And not the kind that blindly follows what must be done when the edict comes down from the ivory tower. The kind that listens, uses logic and works to convince (NOT force) People as to why they should do something, vote for something or pay for something. And most importantly: clearly defines what the result should be and measures the actual result to determine success (ACCOUNTABILITY). The more WE fail in those regards, the more we lose the trust of our fellow Americans and the more likely our nation is to pursue paths history has shown lead to total disaster and suffering. There are either Judas goats amongst us, or we just don't have the right people for the jobs (local, federal, business, global, etc.) but that doesn't mean we can't find the right person, IF we are willing to use the appropriate criteria for selecting him or her (don't judge the book by its cover), we roll up our sleeves and we're honest (accountable?) with ourselves. True Leadership demands that from us and that's the kind of legacy I hope we leave to the next generation(s).

In the arena of the Fed and the banking system, the objective should be to encourage investment that leads to long-term, sustainable growth measured by increasing labor force participation, QUALITY job creation and wages that outpace inflation & lead to a higher quality of life for the masses. It also means admitting that the Fed wasn't and isn't designed to manage a global banking system (monetary system?) fueled by "dollars" that live and breathe outside its border, balance sheet and legal purview. This isn't populism vs globalism. This isn't Republican vs Democrat, this isn't the U.S. vs China, this is the world against deflation. This is the burden borne by the reserve currency in a technological age. The rest is just "mini teams" designed to distract us from the fact that we are NOT winning. The sooner WE start to demand results and stop letting insanity rule the day, the faster we can turn this ship around. The sooner we elect/appoint/follow leaders that reflect these values, which will only happen if WE reflect those values, the faster we can achieve greatness.