The Then & The Now

The Then and the Now was a legend used to scare Gallifreyan children in the popular Doctor Who stories. The legend said that it was an existence which got its hands on a time machine and destroyed its own timeline, then became an impossible walking paradox.

Eerily Covid-19 rose to the challenge to haunt children (and many adults alike). The impact it has had on the global economy, the aviation industry is quite similar, virtually destroying 100 years of aviation’s timeline and becoming a paradox we have yet to fully understand.

Science fiction aside, the impact Aviation has on planet Earth is undoubtedly large. Representing roughly 35% of global trade, facilitating 57% of world tourism or supporting approximately 65.5 million jobs globally.

As States began restricting traffic to combat the onslaught of covid-19, the industry witnessed mass flight cancellations, visa suspensions, border closures and traffic coming to a grinding halt. March and April represented a colossal disaster for the industry with April International passenger demand collapsing 98.4% compared to a year earlier and load factor plunging 55.3% to barely 27.5% as analyzed by IATA.

Many Airlines and the hardworking people supporting the industry became an unfortunate casualty to the wrath of the disease which has led to mass lay-offs, cost cutting and bankruptcy filings for many well-known businesses.

With the disappearance of international and domestic air traffic, many Governments, agencies, and businesses were left scrambling to secure vital goods and supplies threatening food security, the supply of personal protective equipment (PPE) and ventilators. Aviation and Air Cargo in particular, rose to the very challenge still providing the connectivity needed to ensure the well-being of mankind. Airlines began re-purposing passenger aircraft to carry cargo both in the belly and in passenger cabins once used by holiday makers and road warriors who now remain confined indoors binge watching Doctor WHO or adjusting to the new normal of teleworking.

The question now remains how the industry will re-emerge from its current state, will we ever go back to our previous timeline and what would it take to get us there? As Governments begin easing lock-down measures and businesses and transport opens will aviation be treated any differently?

Historically Aviation has always proven to be a resilient industry, bouncing back quickly from 9/11, SARS, MERS, and the Global Financial crisis. This time around bouncing back is contingent upon the speed at which Governments, Airlines, Airports and Regulators move to quickly adopt ICAO’s Council Aviation Recovery Taskforce (CART) roadmap or “Take-Off” program, which has been nurtured by IATA, ACI, ICAO and leading states coming together in record time to establish the road-map to resuming aviation activity and aiming to suggest what the “new normal” looks like.

The guiding principles call for measures to be outcome based supported by scientific evidence and with fact-based risk assessments. Collaboration is vital between Governments to implement consistent mutually accepted measures and that these measures should be in place as long as they are deemed necessary by the industry.

Social distancing, face masks, temperature screening and the use of sanitizers has become second nature to us, and aviation is no exception. At least temporarily we can expect as activity resumes a range of multi-layered health measures or as IATA calls them “biosafety” guidelines to be employed where possible to mitigate the risk of covid-19.

Many Airlines and Airports have rushed to assure passengers (and crew) of the precautions, additional measures, and health practices they are implementing to restore confidence in a system which has collapsed. Airports have also taken the chance to re-consider enabling or investing in new technologies such as biometric facilitation, sanitization and new baggage programs with the aim to offer as many touchpoints throughout the journey which can be deemed “contactless” thereby offering an additional layer of protection and confidence for the returning public.

But these measures in themselves while they are effective in restoring confidence in the system we need to also pay attention to demand enablers and currently there exists a lot of confusion, ambiguity and apprehension by potential travelers on whether they will have to undergo health testing at various parts of their journey, are borders open and visas still valid? and lastly perhaps the biggest impediment to restoring travel is the subject of mandatory Quarantine.

Implementing an ill thought out blanket approach to quarantining passengers potentially can deter both leisure and business traffic from returning to the skies. It will take a great amount of convincing people to travel if their journey entails a lot of uncertainty, lost time, potentially exorbitant costs and a threat to their livelihoods.

There has been some progress with domestic traffic bouncing back strongly and quickly in Asia and North America and while we see small bubbles or international corridors opening up between States we must act swiftly to harmonize policies to restore confidence in the industry and for the traveling public.

For no matter how accustomed we get used to teleworking or birthdays over video calls, nothing brings us closer to real world opportunities and economic prosperity as aviation does, connecting loved ones, friends, business associates or that well deserved beach holiday after spending the better part of the year in isolation removed from human interaction.

As we return to the new reality of air travel, I remind myself at least temporarily what is aviation then and now if not a mix of science fiction and science fact.