November Newsletter: Sweden-US Green Transition Initiative

Dear Readers,?

As November unfolds, the U.S. election results signal a pivotal shift in the political landscape, with Donald Trump set to return to office in January. This development raises important questions about the trajectory of sustainable energy policies in the United States. While a Trump administration is expected to renew support for traditional fossil fuels and reduce federal emphasis on green initiatives, the global momentum for sustainability ensures that the energy transition will continue—driven by market forces, state-level leadership, and international partnerships.?

In this month's newsletter, we explore what this shift might mean for Sweden-US collaboration in the green transition. Eric Vettel, President of the American Energy Society, offers timely insights into navigating polarized energy narratives and fostering objective dialogue. We also examine the dynamic interplay between U.S. and EU climate policies, with Sweden positioned as a global leader in green steel and renewable energy.?

Despite political shifts, states like California and Washington remain steadfast in their commitment to ambitious climate targets, offering a blueprint for progress even in challenging times. As the global community adapts to new realities, Sweden and the U.S. have an opportunity to deepen their collaboration and demonstrate that sustainable innovation transcends political cycles.?

Navigating the Energy Landscape: Insights from Eric Vettel, President of the American Energy Society?

In this month’s newsletter we spotlight Eric Vettel, President of the American Energy Society (AES). Trained as a historian of science, Vettel has published articles on 19th-century chemistry, early 20th-century physics, and the biological sciences in the Post War period. His book, “Biotech; The Origins of an Industry” was a finalist for a Readers Choice Award from the “History of Science, History of Technology Society,” and a winner of the “Alfred Chandler Award in Business History” from Harvard University. From 2005 – 2009 he served one full term as the Director of the Woodrow Wilson Presidential Library, followed by an in-residency fellowship at the Miller Center at the University of Virginia (2009 – 2010), where he turned his attention to “energy.”? The AES was founded in its current form as an integrated energy intelligence and media company in 2011 and now has over 135,000 readers.?

As president of AES, Vettel is a strong promoter of objectivity in the energy media space. The key? “Discipline. Discipline. Discipline,” he said, underscoring the importance of resisting the allure of trends. “It's discipline--just not believing the hype.” He described how industry players—from Silicon Valley to Houston to Stockholm—can become entrapped in narratives that favor popularity over precision.??

A significant component of the AES’s impartiality is its funding model. Unlike typical media outlets that chase clicks and ad revenue, the Society is supported primarily by university subscriptions. “Universities—it doesn't matter where … Europe, U.S., Asia, Central, South America, Africa—higher education expects media to be objective. Expects you to provide evidence along with primary and secondary sources,” he said. This business model has freed the American Energy Society from the pressures of interaction-based journalism and promotes publication of well-researched, unbiased content. As Vettel put it, “People want objectivity. They like to hear what they prefer, but deep down, thoughtful people want the objectivity that we can provide.”?

Biased media obstructs foundational knowledge that impacts both policy and public understanding. “Too many people leapfrog the basics and jump right to their own preferences,” he noted, pointing to the example of a general unfamiliarity with key distinctions, such as the difference between a kilowatt and a kilowatt hour. This lack of understanding leads to conversations driven by superficial metrics, like “capacity,” without grappling with the economic or resource-related realities behind these figures.?

The Society’s commitment to fostering informed discourse goes beyond articles and reports. Vettel shared an impactful example of their work: hosting conferences in unconventional settings, such as Southwest Virginia coal country, to discuss green energy transitions. This was a rare conference because it engaged with a range of diverse voices, including those from marginalized groups and communities directly affected by energy policies. “We made sure that we had everybody in the room, not just the dominant voices,” he said, explaining that the event had representatives from the coal industry alongside solar, utilities and non-profits, and local Native American groups, as well.?

When asked how a second Trump presidency may affect the energy transition, Vettel acknowledged that the Republican party will shift away from aggressive green initiatives, but such moves would not be sustainable long-term. “We know for a fact that there's going to be an energy transition because the sector is always in transition,” he said. “Under the Trump administration, the U.S. will step back, or at least try to redirect it, but not for long. We’re not destined for a new direction.” Energy, he explained, is in a constant state of flux, and the current transition toward more sustainable practices is inevitable, though varying in pace and direction.?

The expected shift under Trump would likely foster an environment where traditional fossil fuel industries see renewed support. This could mean reduced federal emphasis on renewable energy projects and deregulations that favor oil, gas, and coal industries. Such policy changes would reverberate across the global market, impacting international energy partnerships, trade agreements, and climate initiatives in the short term.??

Interestingly, Vettel points out that such a pivot in U.S. policy would present both challenges and opportunities for other countries, particularly those already leading in sustainability. He mentioned Sweden's strong position in the green transition, describing it as a nation poised to step into a more prominent leadership role. “We have to turn to somebody. No doubt we’ll turn to Sweden,” Vettel stated, highlighting that with a potential vacuum in American leadership on climate action, European states like Sweden could gain influence.??

Vettel’s perspective, however, isn’t rooted in unchecked optimism. He once again emphasized the AES’s commitment to maintaining objectivity by evaluating both the strengths and limitations of Sweden's approach.??

“Along the way, we will call out the hype. That's our job. But we will also celebrate wisdom, progress, and achievement, too. It's not just about taking someone down. It's also sharing praise,” he said. “That's an important part of objectivity that’s too often forgotten.”?

Sweden's Leadership in Energy Transition: Innovations and Insights?

As highlighted in Eric Vettel’s discussion of global energy trends, the energy transition is both inevitable and multifaceted, with nations like Sweden emerging as leaders. Known for its ambitious climate targets and innovative solutions, Sweden provides an example of how countries can navigate energy challenges while fostering economic growth and sustainability.?

Sweden’s green transition is more than policy - it is driven by advancements in renewable energy technologies, grid modernization, and sustainable business practices. As Vettel pointed out, countries like Sweden are well-positioned to step into leadership roles in the global energy shift, especially as other nations face varying paces and priorities in the transition.?

For a concise overview of Sweden’s strengths and innovations in renewable energy, check out the one-pager on Sweden’s energy transition. You can also learn more about the policies driving this transition with the tool Panorama Sweden, developed by the Swedish Climate Policy Council.??

Transatlantic Climate Policy Dynamics: Sweden's Role and Insights?

A recent report from Resources for the Future, Transatlantic Cues: How the United States and European Union Influence Each Other’s Climate Policies, delves into the evolving climate policy landscape across the Atlantic. Authors Milan Elkerbout, Dallas Burtraw, ?sa L?fgren, and Lars Zetterberg highlight the interplay between major policies like the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the EU’s Net-Zero Industry Act (NZIA), emphasizing areas of collaboration and competition in driving the green transition.?

The IRA marks a pivotal shift in U.S. climate policy, prioritizing subsidies to encourage clean energy adoption. It contrasts with the EU’s focus on carbon pricing and emissions trading through mechanisms like the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). These differing approaches have created a dynamic exchange of ideas, inspiring each side to refine their climate strategies.?

The NZIA responds to the IRA by accelerating the commercialization of key technologies and simplifying processes for net-zero projects in Europe. Sweden’s active role in green steel production exemplifies this shift, with companies like SSAB and LKAB leveraging EU policies to pioneer hydrogen-based solutions.?

Sweden plays a unique role in the EU's climate framework, demonstrating innovation in industries like green steel and renewable energy. Projects like Hybrit, a joint venture involving SSAB, LKAB, and Vattenfall, showcase Sweden’s capacity to lead in decarbonization. However, challenges remain, including securing access to renewable electricity and navigating competitive pressures from U.S. subsidies.?

A Swedish business report cited in the study raises concerns about the IRA’s potential to redirect investments away from Europe, impacting sectors like hydrogen and e-fuels. Despite these challenges, Swedish enterprises see opportunities to capitalize on U.S. incentives by investing in eligible sectors like clean energy and electric vehicles.?

The Confederation of Swedish Enterprise (CSE), representing over 60,000 companies across Sweden, has expressed concerns about the potential impacts of the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) on European competitiveness. The CSE notes that sectors such as green hydrogen and e-fuels may face increased competition from U.S. investments, especially as subsidies incentivize U.S. production. While the high transportation costs of hydrogen may limit short-term trade impacts, the CSE is worried that Nordic countries, with their competitive advantage in green hydrogen production, could be at a disadvantage as investments shift toward the U.S.??

The potential reduction in U.S. electricity prices could also put energy-intensive European industries, like chemicals, at risk. Furthermore, the IRA’s domestic content requirements could hinder EU exporters from accessing the U.S. market, raising concerns about the weakening of multilateral trade systems. The CSE fears that the IRA, combined with European responses, may trigger a costly global subsidy race, potentially distorting competition in the EU and inflating the green transition’s costs.??

However, it also recognizes potential benefits for European companies investing in U.S. clean energy sectors and notes that while the IRA could hurt specific clean energy production sectors, it may lower the cost of consumption in others. The CSE advocates for the EU to avoid engaging in a subsidy race, instead focusing on removing market barriers, promoting open trade, and maintaining technology neutrality. It further supports carbon pricing through the EU ETS as a more effective, sustainable approach to decarbonization over subsidies, in line with the polluter-pays principle.?

As the U.S. and EU refine their policies, Sweden’s role as an innovator and collaborator will be critical. Transatlantic cooperation, particularly in areas like carbon pricing interoperability and trade regulations, could pave the way for more effective climate strategies. Sweden’s experience in integrating stringent climate targets with economic competitiveness offers valuable lessons for global policymakers.?

Upcoming Event: Bridging Green Agendas?

Are you interested in the report mentioned above? GTI and the Embassy of Sweden are proud to host the seminar "Bridging Green Agendas: EU-U.S. Climate Policy at a Crossroads," in partnership with Resources for the Future, Mistra Carbon Exit, and IVL (Svenska Milj?institutet), taking place at the Embassy of Sweden in Washington, DC.?

During this seminar, Milan Elkerbout, a Fellow and Director of the International Climate Policy Initiative at Resources for the Future, will present the recent report and discuss the growing geopolitical challenges. This in-person seminar will explore how these policies will influence climate action over the coming decade and how we can re-evaluate best practices for effective, net-zero oriented climate policy.?

If you would like to attend, please reach out to [email protected].?

Fact of the Month:?

Sustainability Policies in California and Washington?

This month, we highlight some of the sustainability policies in California and Washington state, showcasing their commitment to a greener future.?

California's Climate Leadership?

• Global Warming Solutions Act (AB 32): Since 2006, California has been on a mission to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2020 and aims for a 40% reduction by 2030. The state utilizes a cap-and-trade system that allows major polluters to buy and sell emissions allowances, driving innovation in clean technology.?

• Zero Carbon Emissions by 2045: California has set an ambitious goal to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2045. This initiative includes stringent vehicle emissions standards, green building codes, and sustainable land use policies.?

Washington's Clean Energy Vision?

• Climate Commitment Act (CCA): Washington is taking bold steps with the CCA, which establishes a cap on greenhouse gas emissions for major industries. The goal is to cut emissions by 95% by 2050, with funds from a cap-and-invest program directed toward clean transportation and climate resilience projects.?

• Clean Energy Transformation Act: This policy mandates that all electricity in Washington come from renewable or zero-emission sources by 2045, paving the way for a sustainable energy future.?

• Zero-Emission Vehicles Requirement: By 2035, all new vehicles sold in Washington must meet zero-emission standards, significantly reducing the state's transportation-related carbon footprint.?

These policies illustrate how California and Washington are among the states leading the way in sustainability efforts, setting ambitious targets that not only combat climate change but also inspire other states to follow suit.??