November Equity Research Insights

This month features insights on: CMG, DIS, SN, NYT, ROKU, QCOM, FRPT and COIN

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Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG): While Chipotle’s stock took a hit post earnings call, NielsenIQ e-receipt data saw MoM and YoY increases in Monthly Digital Sales last September following a lull earlier in Q3-2024. NIQ e-receipt data also saw the Chipotle app/website gain Order Channel Share from food delivery service providers, hitting its highest % share yet this year of 68.9%. NIQ will continue to monitor how promotions like the Boorito and the limited time offering of Smoked Brisket may have affected digital sales in October.

Disney (DIS): NielsenIQ data shows that US Based Disney+ End of Period (EOP) Subscribers for September 2024 has remained largely stagnant. While the Monthly Amortized Average Basket is up 10.2% YoY and down -0.1% MoM. This suggests that the general US Disney+ customer is unaffected by price increases. Though, our data also shows that the Disney+ Basic Plan is taking a greater share of new sign-ups, averaging 40% this month, an increase of 7.9% YoY.

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Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN): NielsenIQ data has demonstrated inverse trends in Buy+Deposit and Sell+Withdrawal Indices. More people are selling and withdrawing in September than in August, which is in line with what was mentioned last month that September is usually a more difficult month to trade, and people are pulling back on putting more into the crypto market.

Roku, Inc. (ROKU): Roku reported Streaming Household growth of 12.8% YoY, just below NielsenIQ’s +12.9% YoY estimate. Growth rates for new household additions have stagnated in recent years as major streaming markets have become saturated. For additional charts on Roku, please contact us.

SharkNinja Inc. (SN): NIQ’s E-receipt data gives us an early insight into performance for new product launches like the SLUSHi, Luxe Café,etc. especially as in the U.S. DTC channel, which the company stated “will grow faster than the retail business over the next couple of years.”

Freshpet, Inc. (FRPT): NielsenIQ RMS data captures Freshpet sales in tracked brick-and-mortar Grocery, Mass, Club, and Pet Specialty stores. FRPT stock is up +82% YTD after raising guidance and reporting strong Q3 2024 net sales. RMS sell-through data remains well-correlated with FRPT reported Net Sales as key retailers for the company are included in tracked data. Retail sales continue to reflect strong dollar and unit growth for the company.

For additional charts on Freshpet, please contact us

Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM): guided for +40% q/q revenue growth from Chinese OEMs in C4Q, consistent with GfK’s expectation that these flagship launches will be the key driver for revenue upside to the Street. It is likely that Android revenue is even better than expected as Apple units are weaker than modeled.?

• Qualcomm officially announced its Snapdragon 8 Elite, the successor to the Snapdragon 8 Gen 3. Initial expectations are robust, driven by earlier flagship device launches at Chinese OEM, the focus on high-end devices and share gains in Samsung Galaxy S25 series.

New York Times (NYT): New York Times has traditionally been a beneficiary during a presidential election cycle as people generally seek more information and input on candidates and issues. NielsenIQ E-receipt data shows that bump once again during the final quarter before the November elections with our estimate of Total Digital Subscribers growth increasing to double digits. The combination of a natural uplift in subscribers due to the election cycle and NYT’s ability to successfully convert subscribers to their suite of offerings (New York Times, The Athletic, Wirecutter, Games, Cooking) as opposed to a la carte subscriptions should add a boost to profitability as well as subscribers.

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