A November Election?

I was asked in July to supply a short cameo for a workshop looking at Brexit contingency planning. This is not a forecast, but a story to help an organisation plan for various contingencies. Now that it has been used, I am free to share. The cameo concerns itself with the breakdown in negotiations, an impasse, where the Government falls. Now that is Labour Policy to hold a GE and the PM is saying a GE is a distraction ( as she did in 2017), what does this solve?

He is my starter for 10:

A 3 week GE is called in November. The opinion polls predict very different results, with the ￡ coming under pressure as different outcomes emerge almost daily. The results come in. Different constituencies and different regions swing wildy in different directions.

Labour wins the most votes, but the Conservatives hold the most seats. Labour has piled up votes in safe areas and won a few seats in Scotland but only a handful in England.

The Lib Dems have polled around 12-14 % but the votes are concentrated in a few areas so end up with around 20 seats, mostly at Tory expense. This is because some UKIP votes return to UKIP fearing a softening by the Tories.

The big loser of the night is Boris Johnson, whose constituency swings heavily Remain.

Many marginal seats fail to fall and some previously safe fall or become marginal.

The Tories cannot get a majority with DUP. Labour can get a majority with SNP but not with Lib Dems.

The clock is ticking!