November, 2024: Life Is A Poker Game
All content of this email is for entertainment purposes and not investment advice.?All the news we share via social media can be found here. To subscribe to this email, click here. Alternatively, we also have a LinkedIn version of this newsletter.??All past issues are here. This edition includes insights, news, and events.
What makes a decision great is not that it has a great outcome. A great decision is the result of a good process, and that process must include an attempt to accurately represent our own state of knowledge. That state of knowledge, in turn, is some variation of 'I’m not sure'." ―?Annie Duke,?Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts ?
Dear Gentle Readers,
Maybe you don't need people to tell you this, but I found Annie Duke's insight clarifying, "Life is poker, not chess." In a poker game, results are determined by both luck and skills, unlike chess, where the ability to strategize (skills) matters 100%. Many erroneously think that if we have done the work or followed the steps, we should be able to attain specific results. If the expected results are not there, the problem?must be the process or steps we took (a.k.a. "resulting"). A lot of us hate the world of "gambling", even though our daily life decisions force us to make many bets.?
This newsletter is being delivered late due to my lack of skills and not?lack of?luck. I have added "Time Management for Dummies" to my list to read in December, so there is hope. The silver lining of procrastination is that I discovered the world of Annie Duke, a world-class poker player (gambler), psychologist, and excellent author. I highly recommend all the books she wrote, particularly "Thinking in Bets."?At the least, you can show off your skills at the poker table this holiday season.
Joking aside, we now have a new president on the horizon. Mr. Trump's pending presidency has excited the whole world. Some are very happy with the result, others are not. Some maintain a "let's see" attitude. However, I think democracy in the United States, the process, has worked. The results may not make some happy, but it is unlikely the process' fault. We should probably keep it.??
We have heard much speculation about how the Trump administration will impact world trade, immigration, tax, and social policies, but how would the new administration specifically impact healthcare 3D printing??
I am no policy buff, but government policies matter in healthcare and elsewhere.
If we break things down, "healthcare 3D printing" contains three identities: emerging technology, life science/healthcare, and manufacturing. Looking at these three sectors separately, we could get a potential?forecast for the future. Also, in general, the more uncertainties (i.e. risks) there are, the lower a company's valuation will be.?Again, this is not professional or investment advice, but just some ideas I could bet on.?
1. Manufacturing
Interestingly, in August, Xometry published a survey of 150 manufacturing executives in the US, and the majority (55%) backed Mr. Trump over Kamala (38%). Granted, this is a small sample size with limited data, but this data is perhaps more reflective of the sentiment among businesses relevant to the additive manufacturing sector.? More specifically, as better described in this?article, these are potential significant impact areas: a) Restitution or expansion of tariff, b) Incentives for domestic manufacturing, c) Tax policy reform, d) Regulatory reform, and e) trade agreement and supply chain realignment.?
Given improved cash flow from tax cuts, I hope to see an increase in R&D in the US AM industry in the short term. Still, I?am concerned about the potential rising cost of raw materials/imported parts and an even more challenging labor market where AM talents are hard to find domestically already.? Of course, you have different issues/benefits if you are outside the US.??
2. Life science/healthcare -“Make America healthy again”
A wild card, indeed. Currently, even the most informed can only speculate. This poker game is on.
Most believe the outcome will be a mixed bag regarding how it will impact the healthcare pharma industry. PwC's summary suggests these four areas are worth attention to 1) Deregulation.?2) Flexibility and choice 3) Accessibility 4) National security.?
The most important questions for the 3DHEALS readers could be:
1. How will these policy reversals?or changes impact medical device reimbursement or biologic therapeutics?
2. How will the new proposal pay for itself??
3. How will these impact the merger and acquisition landscape in 3D printing??
4. How will these impact foreign startups aiming for the US medical/pharma markets?
3. Emerging technology
Some of the most vocal advocates for?Mr. Trump's presidential campaign this time around were the most influential entrepreneurs and venture capitalists who are big fans of:
AI + Crypto +Tiktok
Okay, not 3D printing. We are also a tiny industry.
But how will the same three topics, deregulation, immigration, and tariff, impact us?? While VC-funded startups may have an easier environment for exits, according to this article, less than 1% of the startups ever get VC funding. Worst of all, few lawmakers, perhaps even know what we do or only have a rudimentary understanding of the current value and future potentials of 3D printing in healthcare and everywhere else.
With a limited government budget, will there be enough non-diluted R&D and industry-specific funding for the sector? ? Will new immigration laws make it difficult or impossible for foreign founders to immigrate to the US (since the US has one of the best environments for healthcare startups)? Will companies be able to keep the existing workforce at an affordable rate?? Few can claim today that they know how and what changes will occur in January 2025.
Still, as French microbiologist and chemist Louis Pasteur?said, “In the fields of observation, chance favors only the prepared mind.”
“In the fields of observation, chance favors only the prepared mind.”--French microbiologist and chemist Louis Pasteur?
Hola! ?3DHEALS Instagram Account:
We are back online after some serendipitous help from our 3DHEALS tribe. You can now see our channel again.??
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While we are not giving up on Instagram entirely (and those of you who work there, please help), this unfortunate event has motivated us to direct our attention to our?YouTube channel, where we create new content regularly.?
Jenny Chen, M.D.
Events/Community ???
Now On-Demand:?
3D Printing for Orthotics and Prosthetics.??A week ago, we successfully concluded our?event?focusing on 3D printing (and 3D technologies in general) in the orthotics and prosthetics industry. This is one of the most critical topics that defines our vision and achievements in healthcare 3D printing, and therefore?3DHEALS events?revisit this annually. For our 2024 version, our unique expert panel covered almost every body part in the O&P industry. The speakers included clinicians, industrialists, marketers, and startup founders. Each speaker brought their unique journeys (often measured in decades), perspectives, and wishlist to the conversation. What is also worth mentioning was our audience for the live event. Our analytics dashboard showed surprisingly strong results from India, Denmark, and Canada, in addition to our?US audience, among 40+ countries. We also had one of the highest percentages of clinicians signed up for the event, 15%, as opposed to typically less than 10%. (Your prosthetists?care! )The beauty of the 3DHEALS panel is that it is a mix of structured education in a relatively short period (15 minutes or so) and organic reactions and conversations among the audience. I want to thank all of the speakers, as well as a very engaging audience, for participating in this event.?This blog contains my thoughts after the event. Frankly, I felt out-of-date during the virtual event because there were so many advancements since I last reviewed the industry. This blog contains my opinions, which are not necessarily the truth, and I am open to critiques.
Mark your calendar:?
Design for 3D printing and Bioprinting Check out the upcoming 2025 3DHEALS events calendar.? ?
Podcast("The Lattice"):
If you are an auditory learner, you can now find recordings of some of the latest virtual events. We are working on a series of new podcasts as well. Stay tuned.
Partner Survey:
Point of Care 3D printing by Dr. Neha Sharma? "We’re thrilled to invite you to participate in a unique global survey on Point-of-Care (POC) 3D print labs! This survey, initiated by University Hospital Basel, Switzerland and MGA Mobility | MGA Medical – Mobility goes Additive e.V., aims to capture essential insights into the infrastructure, challenges, and best practices defining the future of POC 3D printing in healthcare." Here is the survey link. Want to get our updates more promptly? Here is our subscription link.
领英推荐
News ??amp; Thoughts
Core Legal Challenges for Medical 3D Printing in the EU?This publication by legal experts dissects the problem with MDR regulation into four quadrants: premarket approval, post market liability, intellectual properties, personal data protection. Worth a read if you are interested in the EU medtech market.? Pitch3D welcomes EU founders to apply.?
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Revolutionizing surgical planning with 3D printing While some people can (rightfully) snicker at VA, it is a undeniable a first mover in some of the biggest healthcare changes in the United States. That includes electronic healthcare system (EHRs). Here is an interesting article on the innovative history of VA.?
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Restor3d Secures $70M In New Financing To Advance 3D-Printed Implants?The importance and practicality of “personalization device” are not straightforward because of current technological and resource constrains. This was addressed in our event recent.?
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Pre-Surgery 3D Printing Research Launched for Insurance Reimbursement?Truth hurts. Sometimes, having the big picture does not make us feel better. Just when you are super excited about 3D printing for surgical planning, competing technologies with much less capEx are also showing up. AR/VR/MR, 3D scanning and intraoperative 3D cameras, intraoperative mobile MRIs are also very exciting and potentially endanger the promise 3D printing in this particular field. If this is a race, will 3D printing come out as a winner? Or should we put resources elsewhere, where 3D printing will likely win for the long run? This will be a hard question, and the concept of “sunk cost” immediately comes to mind.?
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A Band-Aid for the heart? New 3D printing method makes this, and much more, possible?A new 3D printing technique,” CLEAR (for Continuous-curing after Light Exposure Aided by Redox initiation), follows a series of steps to entangle long molecules inside 3D-printed materials much like those intertwined worms.” Innovation = Observation of Nature ->Design ->Experiementation/Hypothesis ->Observation of Results -> Iterate
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3D printing enabled ankle replacement solution receives FDA clearance?Orthopedics is a great field to dig in for 3D printing OEMs. More similar partnerships are needed.?
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APL and CurifyLabs join forces to personalise medicinal administration with 3D printing?Kids and pets, main customers of compound medicine, likely early customers of 3D printed pharmaceuticals.?
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Bioengineers and chemists design fluorescent 3D-printed structures with potential medical applications?Serendipidous encounter ended in “sparkles”. Do you know that several common chemotherapy including doxorubicin has intrinsic fluorescent properties?? ?
BellaSeno’s Pioneering 3D Printing Facility for Medical Implants to Open in 2025?Don’t miss our exclusive written and podcast interview with CEO and founder Mohit Chhaya
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NanoHive Raises $7m to Develop 3D-Printed Spinal Fusion Devices?Check out Nanohive co-founder Ian Helmar’s? presentation at our latest 3D technology for Spine event that just happened.?
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3D-printed mini-tumours: a leap forward in improving cancer immunotherapy?Sometimes, maybe “good enough” is good enough. Given more than 90% failure rate for cancer drugs at clinical trial stage, maybe a simplified bioprinted tumor model with smart design will do the job at an affordable price.?
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VCA Animal Hospitals Launches 3D Printing Lab for Pet Orthopedic Surgeries “VCA Animal Hospitals, incorporated as VCA, Inc., operates more than 1,000 animal hospitals in the US and Canada.The company is based in Los Angeles, and was founded in 1986. Until its acquisition by Mars Inc. in 2017, VCA traded on the NASDAQ under the ticker "WOOF".”[Wikipedia”]
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restor3d’s Kinos Range Ankle Implants with Additively Manufactured Cobalt Chrome?Modular design allows surgeons to have intraoperative optionality to personalize final implantation outcome.?
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Building new bones with help from 3D printing One of a few (possibly only) mSLA-based 3D printable bone materials. “AESO is a novel and renewable liquid resin made by the epoxidation of fatty acid double bonds followed by epoxy ring acrylation and is an excellent option for 3D printing and photopolymerization to fabricate complex structure for biomedical applications, with multiple studies reporting no cytotoxicity.” Don’t miss our conversations on 3D printing bone and biomaterials this year.?
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Boston’s Additive Edge: Inside Boston Children’s Hospital 3D Printing Lab?In addition to many fun memories as a fellow there more than a decade ago, every visit to CHB innovation lab is like traveling through a time and technology museum. Incredible group of clinicians and engineers working together. Sometimes the engineer is also the clinician (Kudos to my mentor Dr. Sanjay Prabhu).?
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Georgia Tech’s 3D Printed Splint Saves Another Child with Windpipe Defects?Another life changing work out of the Hollister Lab. Check out a related event focusing on soft tissue engineering (breast implant) with a member out of Georgia Tech.
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Self-improving AI increases 3D-printing efficiency?Yes, one of the best ways AI/ML can help 3D printing is by optimizing machine settings for desired outcome. Bioprinting is even harder, and AI/ML could be even more helpful.
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Enhancing neurosurgery with 3D printing You don’t need to be a neurosurgeon to realize how critical (and life saving) a good cranioplasty/cranial implant is to come patients. The number of people with a “hole” in their skull (literally) is not insignificant. Many have to live with this defect but they really should not have to. If you can stomach it, here is one article to see what they look like (and why some people would end up with it). Also, PEEK is not the only 3D-printable biomaterials that can do the job. Noval designs can enable a variety of biomaterials, including metallic implants to have the same mechanical properties similar to PEEK, as explained in our virtual event recently by Ruben Wauthle, CEO of Amnovis.?
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3D printing lung tissue from mucus-based bioink Despite more treatment for COPD, mortality for this increasingly more prevalent disease has not improved in past decades. In addition of vascularization, this is another approach towards our deeper understanding and therefore combating this silent pandemic. Here is the publication.?
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3D printing use in radiology saves an estimated 41 minutes, $2,500 per case Possibly one of the most important publications for healthcare 3D printing this year. “In terms of time spent, radiologists and other healthcare providers allocated about 34 minutes toward consultations, 32 minutes on segmentation, 21 minutes on computer-aided design, and 6 minutes on preparation/post-processing. The average total time expended per 3D printing case was 92.4 minutes for providers and 335 minutes for other nonproviders (e.g., technologists, engineers and scientists). These times correspond to an estimated provider effort cost of about $339 and $267 for other care team members, or a total of almost $606 per case on average.” Data is likely valuable and correct, but economic analysis may need a deeper dive.?
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Israeli Startup’s 3D Printer to Make Custom Lenses in Eye Clinics?Another high value arena with many interesting new products leveraging 3D printing and bioprinting.?
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Researchers Develop 3D-Printed Medication To Treat Deadly Infection In Pediatric Patients Compound medicine is frequently much needed in the pedicatric population, as in veterinary medicine. Customization and small batch production are perfect problems to be solved by 3D printing.?
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Vital3D Talks Shaping the Future of Medicine With Organ Bioprinting Will photonics experts succeed in demoncratizing two-photon polymerization bioprinting??
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3D printing goes “green” with microalgae ink? Microalgae sounds almost magical. Instead of replacing all plastics (esp. PFAS), the economics (and performance) may be better to just replace all the PFAS in 3D printing, which claims to be environmentally friendly.
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Metamaterial and 3D Printing Too many people are asking us what metamaterieals can do for healthcare 3D printing, and I did not even know what they are. Here is a short blog for some foundational information on this very relevant topic.? ?
3D-printed PEEK-based Spine Implant Cleared by FDA PEEK has many advantages as a biomaterial for implants, but modified titanium and metamaterials could both disrupt its future markets.?
BLI secures $1.8 million to advance 3D bioprinting?Biological Lattice Industries?(a Pitch3D startup) combines multiple biofabrication tools including MEW (Melt-electrowetting 3D printing) and AI/ML to create a powerful tissue engineering system. Check out the founder's presentation in our past event here.?
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