Stableford Market Commentary - November 2023
Markets Anticipate Lower Interest Rates
Equities had their biggest monthly mover of 2023 during November as investors anticipated lower interest rates and an economic soft landing.
The significant November rebound in equities stands in stark contrast to the disappointing earnings season and 5% rates that drove October lows.
The narrative changed markedly in November with weaker economic data and the resulting dovish Fed rhetoric leading investors to anticipate larger interest rate cuts in 2024 from the Fed.
The lower yields drove equity valuations up substantially as investors anticipate easier days ahead for earnings. As Exhibit 2 shows, investors now anticipate fed funds to be 60 basis points lower at the end of 2024 than they did a month ago.
As a result, US 10-year Treasury bond yields also fell a precipitous 60 basis points in November.?
So where do we go now?
Read the November Market Commentary for a detailed overview of the situation.
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