Is a November 2018 change of government possible in Victoria?

The Daniel Andrews led Labor Victorian State Government elected in November 2014 will be seeking a second term in a little over six months’ time. The defeat of the Liberal-National Coalition Government in 2014 demonstrated that Victorians are willing to vote out first-term governments if they under perform.

The 2018 State Election will take place on Saturday 24 November, in line with Victoria’s fixed parliamentary terms of four years. At present, Labor holds 46 seats in the lower house, a stable majority. However, it requires complex arrangements of minor parties and cross bench members in the upper house to pass legislation.

The 2014 Labor win came on the back of a Coalition administration widely seen as inactive, and facing significant internal strife. Labor’s win included seizing a number of key seats along the Frankston Sandbelt, many of which are heavily marginal. At the same time, across the state it limited losses to a small number of key electorates such as Ripon to the Liberals, and Melbourne to the Greens.

While the Andrews Labor Government had been tracking well in opinion polling. In the most recent Newspoll Labor led 52-48 based on, primary votes of 39% Coalition, 37% Labor, 11% Greens and 6% One Nation. However, Galaxy polling had Labor slumping to a 53-47 deficit in June 2017, before recovering to a 50-50 tie in December, so the Newspoll suggests a continuing trend to Labor.

Premier Daniel Andrews’ ratings were 46% satisfied, 41% dissatisfied. Opposition Leader Matthew Guy’s ratings were 36% satisfied, 37% dissatisfied. Andrews led Guy 41-30 as better premier.

Labor led the Liberals 44-34 on party best to maintain energy supply and keep power prices lower, while the Liberals led 42-37 on law and order. 65% thought the Andrews government should be doing more to reduce gang violence, while only 25% thought the government was doing enough.

Labor expects a difficult campaign and fight to retain government. It is important to note that various senior political strategists and advisers from both major parties, including key figures who will guide their respective party’s 2018 state election campaigns, believe Andrews’ win in 2014 demonstrated that from that point on, Victorian voters would be willing to continually vote out under-performing governments even in their first term. This had substantial implications for the governing style of the Andrews Administration.

When considered along the historic divide of cabinet consultative vs will of the leader governments, the Andrews Government falls within the latter.

Premier Daniel Andrews is widely considered to oversee a government marked by centralisation of power within the Office of the Premier, as well as a limited number of key offsiders and lieutenants amongst the ministerial ranks. To date, Andrews has demonstrated a consistent willingness to involve himself in decision-making processes in the portfolios of ministers regardless of seniority (see firefighters/CFA actions), and sets much of the agenda of the government.

Similarly, the distribution and hiring practices of ministerial staffers, both junior and senior, has significant input and oversight from within the Premier’s Office. At a public level, this is demonstrated by most advertisements for ministerial staffers issued by the Premier’s Office, with enquires directed to contacts working for the Premier, not the minister to be staffed.

Daniel Andrews’ success in retaking government after only a single term in opposition, combined with certain natural styles, has led to a centralised administration and a Premier who prefers to lead rather than consult. While some internal and external stakeholders have described his office as at time remote from the rest of government, his staff are acknowledged to be highly devoted to him, and fervent backers of their boss, as well as the government as a whole.

A former party strategist, Andrews’ has a technocrat image, and an in-depth policy mind. He previously held the health portfolio is the previous Labor government, a complex area where he was widely seen a strong performer. His leading position on abortion law reform while health minister is viewed within various Labor circles as a particular positive from his time in the portfolio.

Since assuming office, Andrews, has implemented a dual track approach to implementing his agenda. A concerted effort has been made to achieve significant, on the ground accomplishments in policy issues that affect the core Labor base, such as wages and employment, local public schools and TAFE investment, and roads and infrastructure, while simultaneously using social media to highlight socially progressive moves such as regarding same-sex marriage. This mix is critical to the re-election chances of his administration.

While internal Liberal Party disagreements have been welcomed as a balance to disunity apparent at times within the Government, the Coalition’s moves to reunify and mount a concerted campaign demonstrate Labor may not count upon this issue. It remains to be seen how successfully Victorian Opposition leader Matthew Guy and Liberal Party president Michael Kroger will be able to put aside differences and mount a unified campaign.

Similarly, while the Andrews Government is known to have a stronger financial election fund than the Coalition, and its links with its members, activists and allied unions provides for a better organised ground campaign, these may be of limited effect should the public mood shift strongly enough against the government. For the Coalition, this also points to the need to strongly work the media and public image to cement an attitude of need for change, and hence overcome deficits in campaign infrastructure and funding.

Moving towards polling day, the Andrews Government election strategy will seek to deliver a messaging mix focussed on infrastructure, education, health, jobs, training and wages. These are areas experiencing significant economic and social stress from changes to the labour market over successive decades which have robbed the areas of their traditional industries and placed ever increasing economic power in the hands of middle and upper classes. The speedy response of Andrews and his minister to issues such as the La Trobe Valley power closures is evidence of this focus, as is investment in road infrastructure.

Simultaneously, Andrews and his team will seek to continue to engage the more progressive, inner city voters through social policy engagement. However, the government is acutely aware that outside of specific seats, many inner-city areas no longer elect Labor members. While the government will not give up attempting to take back electorates, greater emphasis will be on the heartland areas as well as targeted marginal areas such as the Frankston Sandbelt.

 So a change of government is possible, but the Liberals have a big challenge ahead of them.