November 2, 2022
Ailevon Pacific Aviation Consulting
Ailevon Pacific Aviation Consulting is an international aviation consulting firm specializing in Air Service Development
This month we’re coming to you from Perth, Western Australia where we kick of the industry’s newest symposium designed to give you the data edge in your conversation with airlines, be it cargo, passenger or both.
With World Routes in the rear-view mirror, and the end of the current calendar year fast approaching, attention has firmly moved to NS23 capacity opportunities.?Recent crew, aircraft and facility operational challenges plaguing some markets are dissipating, or stabilising, leading into the peak northern hemisphere travel season.?As IATA Slots convenes in MEL later this month, we take a look (below) at a recent route commencement, that since starting, has been a challenge for one airline, just as another plans to launch on the same sector during NS23.?As elevated demand continues to be ever-present, airfares are priced also at elevated levels, underscoring greater quarterly earnings recently announced to markets, or evident in most recent monthly statistical reports.
Domestic markets continue to climb out of their post-COVID closures, or still power ahead of 2019 levels (the US comes to mind in this respect), while in international markets, newly opened markets (e.g. Japan, Hong Kong etc.) continue to revive and thrive as restrictions fall away.?With the large Chinese market still largely not evident in international travel, and airfares in some markets representing strong demand characteristics, are we set for a prolonged period of higher airfares??Supply (i.e. seat capacity) continues to trickle back, but should the Chinese market return, will elevated pricing levels remain?
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DATA Insight: September a good start for Air New Zealand AKL-NYC
Smarter data gives us the opportunity to consider the ramifications of decisions made & implemented – and for what may be occurring now or into the near future.?Taking cues from past historical data points allows some degree of confidence in forecasting – but it’s never perfect.?Historically, new NZ services to points in the USA, such as IAH, YVR, & ORD have taken time to build and have in time proven a success, which is why they are all soon to be re-instated or have re-started already.
?Since the commencement of Air New Zealand’s services between Auckland & New York, we’ve assumed a heavily popular service with New Zealanders, and a slow up-take in American’s using the service.?In the data available to date from Statistics New Zealand, we understand that to be the case.?The first few rotations between NYC and AKL had reasonably good passenger load factors (PLF’s), however as Sept. has marched on, PLF’s have trended down (see graphic below).?There has been much in the local media in New Zealand about the “gas & go” stop-overs in NAN that have on occasion been required – but the lower PLF’s, regardless of any passenger, baggage or freight payload limits are for now, initially, much lower than expected.?Overall, the statistics also tell us that approx. 70% of the passenger loads have been New Zealand residents.?The demographics of the service are also compelling!?Whilst it’s still early into the launch of this new service, we’re hopeful the early success will be reflected in recent past starts by the airline.?We’ll look again in 5 months’ time, when we hope to take a view on the services performance to date over the first 6-month period.?
Air Service Data Analytics Symposium: 2-4 November – starts today!
?From a spectacular event location at the DoubleTree by Hilton Perth Waterfront, Perth will be a fantastic location to hear from our line-up of data providers and speakers
?It all starts later today as we begin the delivery of our Air Service Data Analytics Symposium – Hosted by Tourism Western Australia & Perth Airport!?We look forward to nearly 40 people attending this event, which is the ideal size to create these quality engagements.?We’re delighted that those attending and speaking represent the most inquisitive and curious minds in the industry, seeking excellence in their engagements with airlines & partners.
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The next RoundTable for airlines, airports and destination marketers is in Cairns, 31 May – 2 June?2023, at the Shangri-La Marina Cairns.?Look out for more detail later this month to register.?If you’d like to have a particular airline speak, please let us know.?Already, Air NZ, American Airlines, Fiji Airways & Virgin Australia have agreed to speak.
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