November 15, 2024 - Newswires

Soybeans and corn fell for a fourth straight day; wheat slid to lows not seen since Aug. 27 ...

Good afternoon, Farmer Family ...

US farm markets all trended lower on Thursday.

Corn prices stumbled 1.76% lower.

Soybeans faced double digits losses tumbling 2.01% lower.

The rest of the soy complex also was in the red, as soymeal fell 1.58%, and soyoil lost 1.64%.

Wheat prices faced variable losses as Chicago SRW tumbled 1.99%, Kansas City HRW dropped 1.43%, and Minneapolis spring wheat fell 0.79%.

• Soybeans and corn fell for a fourth straight day, as traders worried that biofuel policy changes under the incoming U.S. presidential administration of Republican Donald Trump.
• The market continued to assess the appointment of anti-biofuel former congressman Lee Zeldin by Trump as head of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.
• The U.S. soybean crush likely surged to an all-time record in October, while soyoil stocks were forecast to have increased after hitting a near-decade low a month earlier, analysts said ahead of a National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) report.
• NOPA data will be released later in the session, with October crush among members estimated at 196.84 mbu.
• That would be an all-time record for crush if realized.
• Stocks of bean oil are estimated at 1.09 billion lbs for October 31.
• Brazil's soybean crop is expected to reach 166.14 million metric tons in 2024/25, up from the 166.0 million tons previously estimated, national crop agency Conab said on Thursday.
• Supporting the soybean complex, exporters sold 176,000 metric tons of soybeans to unknown destinations or 2024/2025 delivery, according to the USDA.
• For corn, weekly data from the EIA showed ethanol production at 1.113 million barrels per day during the week of 11/8.
• That was up 8,000 bpd from the previous week and an all-time record.
• Despite the improved output, stocks were only up 19,000 barrels to 22.039 million barrels.
• Exports were up 35,000 bpd on the week at 144,000 bpd, with refiner inputs of ethanol down 9,000 bpd at 909,000 bpd.
• Algerian state agency ONAB is believed to have made no purchase in a tender which closed on Wednesday for up to 240,000 metric tons of animal feed corn sourced only from Argentina or Brazil,
• Also, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said on Thursday that her government would in the coming days present a plan to protect the country's non-genetically modified white corn under the constitution.
• Brazil’s CONAB raised their 2024/25 Brazilian corn crop estimate just slightly, by 0.07 MMT, to 119.81 MMT in this month’s update.
• Meanwhile, wheat slid as the U.S. dollar continued its multi-day rally, weighing on export sentiment.
• The return of rain in the U.S. Plains helped improve crop prospects.
• Rain relief has also eased worries about Black Sea crops, while in Western Europe a drier turn in the weather has helped farmers accelerate planting after a rain-delayed start.

In this context ...

Basis bids for corn were steady to higher and bids for soy were unchanged in the U.S. Midwest, as the U.S. harvest drew to a close and some buyers sought to incentivize selling.

• Notably, the corn basis ticked up by 10 cents at an Ohio rail terminal, by 5 cents at a Nebraska elevator and by 5 cents at an Iowa elevator.
• Spot basis bids for hard red winter wheat were steady in the U.S. Plains, amid a quiet trade as farmers hesitated to sell at low prices.
• Protein premiums for HRW wheat shipped by rail to or through Kansas City were unchanged for all grades of wheat.

This morning ...

Wheat prices rose, but were on track for their biggest weekly fall since June. Corn was unchanged and soybeans slightly higher, but both were also heading for weekly declines.

• Notably, the most-active wheat contract on the Chicago Board of Trade was up 0.4% at 0425 GMT after falling to its lowest since Aug. 27.
• Wheat prices were heading for a weekly decline of 7.4%.
• Soybeans rose 0.4%, but were down 3.8% this week, and corn was unchanged, and down 2.8% for the week.

South America

Brazil

Brazil's total corn harvest for 2024/25 is now seen at 134.8 million metric tons, more than 1 million tons higher than the September forecast, consultancy Safras & Mercado said on Thursday.

• With the revision based on a larger-than-expected planting area for Brazil's second corn crop, the consultancy sees the total harvest more than 7% higher than in the previous harvest.
• The second corn crop in Brazil's center-south region was estimated by Safras & Mercado at 96.33 million tons, compared to 94.64 million tons in the September forecast.
• The fresh forecast would mean the harvest would bring in over 10 million tons more than the previous season.
• With the good weather so far, there is greater optimism regarding the second corn crop's planting area, which is expected to increase by 4.3% to 15.34 million hectares compared to the previous cycle, Safras & Mercado analyst said.
• Conab only marginally modified yesterday its official production forecasts for 2024-25, with soybeans seen at 166.14mn t vs 166.05mn t last month, corn at 119.81mn t vs 119.74mn t last month, and wheat at 8.11mn t vs 8.26mn t last month.

Argentina

Argentina's Buenos Aires grains exchange said on Thursday that soybean planting had progressed very smoothly over the past week, following abundant rainfall across key parts of the major grains supplier's agricultural heartlands.

• Farmers have already planted some 20.1% of an expected 18.6 million hectares this season, the exchange said, marking a rapid 12.2 percentage point increase over the last week.
• Regarding the nation's corn farming, the Buenos Aires exchange said farmers had planted some 38.6% of an expected 6.3 million hectares, while wheat farmers had harvested 17.2% of an expected 18.6 million hectares of wheat fields.

Europe

European grain markets ended mixed.

• Front-month December contract ended 0.6% up at 210.75 euros, recovering from a 2-1/2 month low of 209.25 euros on Wednesday.
• March wheat, the most active position, settled 0.2% down at 219.75 euros ($231.99) per metric ton, after earlier hitting its lowest since late August at 219.50 euros.
• Wheat consolidated, as traders weighed an export-friendly slide in the euro against dollar.
• The euro dropped against the dollar to a new one-year low.
• Meantime, on the demand side, traders reported purchase interest from Spain for 30,000 tons of November shipment feed wheat at between 227 and 230 euros c&f free out.
• In Poland, 12.5% protein wheat dropped by around 35 zloty in the past week to around 955 zloty (220.2 euros) for November/December port silo delivery.
• As a result, one ship has just left Gdynia with 30,000 of wheat for Nigeria, continuing the recent trend of EU exports to West Africa.
• In France, a vessel with 30,000 tons of wheat for Morocco left Rouen last week, data from the port showed, and traders are expecting more cargoes this month.
• However, Chicago wheat slipped to a fresh 2-1/2 month low, weighed down by the dollar.
• Thus traders remained concerned about low sales.
• On this wake, on Wednesday, farm office FranceAgriMer cut its forecast of French non-EU wheat exports while increasing its end of season stocks projection.
• Strong internal prices had reduced the attraction of selling to exporters.
• Also, Strategie Grains estimated the EU wheat crop will see a 5% increase in acreage for the coming growing season, though they cited a tough start to planting will leave expected production near the previous year’s total at 114.4 MMT.
• Meantime, farm office FranceAgriMer said that 78% of the expected soft wheat area for next year's harvest had been sown by Monday.
• That is compared with 62% a week earlier and 70% a year earlier.
• Corn, meantime, is evolving on its own trend.
• The support of €205/t already tested at the beginning of last week on Euronext is holding firm and offers the reasons for a slight rebound that extended yesterday to all futures.
• Farm office FranceAgriMer said French farmers had harvested 71% of this year's grain maize crop by Nov. 11, up from 58% a week earlier but down from 96% a year before.
• For winter barley, farm office FranceAgriMer said 89% of the expected area for next year's harvest had been sown by Monday, against 78% a week earlier and 83% by the same stage in 2023.
• Rapeseed prices remained volatile with 13.50 €/t separated during the day yesterday the highest from the lowest for the February 2025 contract of Euronext.
• The downward correction observed on palm oil, soybean oil and then canola in Winnipeg is starting to affect the European market, which is closing at the lowest level in a week.

Ukraine

According to operational data of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, as of 14 November, grain and leguminous crops in Ukraine were harvested from a total area of 10.643 mln ha, which is 96% of the planned area (11.116 mln ha).

• The gross grain harvest is estimated at 49.938 mln tonnes with an average yield of 48 c/ha.
• In particular, the corn crops amounted at 22.348 mln tonnes from 3.56 mln ha (88% of the planned) at a yield of 62.7 c/ha;
• buckwheat at 127.2 thousand tonnes from 87.8 thousand hectares (99%) with a yield of 14.5 centners per hectare;
• millet at 161.03 thousand tonnes from 88.1 thousand hectares (93%) with a yield of 18.3 centners per hectare.
• As for oilseeds, harvesting of sunflower and soybeans is nearing completion.
• Sunflower reached 9.96 mln tonnes from 4.78 mln ha (97% of the plan) with a yield of 20.9 c/ha;
• Soybeans, 5.889 mln tonnes from 2.56 mln hectares (98%) with yield of 22.7 centners per hectare.
• Rapeseed reached 3.5 million tons.
• Meantime, according to operational data of the State Customs Service, as of November 15, Ukraine has exported 16.255 mln tonnes of grain and leguminous crops since the beginning of the 2024/25 MY, of which 1.856 mln tonnes were shipped in November.
• As it is specified, the export figures for all major crops are noticeably higher than last year.
• Wheat exports reached 8.289 mln tonnes; barley 1.737 mln tonnes, and corn 5.945 mln tonnes.
• Total exports of Ukrainian flour since the beginning of the season as of 15 November are estimated at 28.5 thousand tonnes, including wheat flour - 26 thousand tonnes.

Russia

SovEcon increased its forecast of Russia’s 2025 wheat production to 81.6Mt from 80.1Mt.

• SovEcon estimated for last years Russian wheat crop 51.4 MMT, a slight 0.1 MMT drop from the previous number.
• The agency also cut 2025 corn production to 11.5Mt from 12.2Mt.

• Meantime, Russian 12.5% protein December shipment wheat was on Thursday at $226 to $229 a ton FOB, with a large consignment of 50,000 tons for November/December shipment offered for sale at $228 a ton.

Southeast Asia

Malaysia

Malaysian palm oil prices rose, after three straight sessions of losses but were on course for their first weekly decline in four, while the market awaited export data for cues.

• Notably, the benchmark palm oil contract for January delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange gained 0.28% by the midday break.
• The contract, however, has fallen 2.41% so far in the week.
• The European Parliament sought on Thursday to water down a ban on the import of commodities such as beef and soy linked to deforestation, and backed a one-year delay to the new rule, in a fresh push-back against the EU's environmental agenda.
• Meantime, Dalian's most-active soyoil contract fell 0.91%, while its palm oil contract rose 0.53%.
• The ringgit inched higher 0.04% against the U.S. dollar, making the vegetable oil more expensive for buyers holding foreign currencies.

Australia

Australia exported 6.13 million tonnes (Mt) of canola in the year to September 30, according to the latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

• Australia’s 2023-24 canola exports are little changed from the 6.02Mt shipped in 2022-23, and once again highlight the importance of European Union destinations in the first two quarters of the Australian shipping year.
• Rainfall models continued to build and align, with 25-50mm forecast over the next 8 days in WA and NSW.
• Meantime, canola had a second consecutive down day yesterday in the west.
• Bids fell $8 to $852, with GM at $752 FIS.
• Barley bids gained slightly to reach $326 as export business continues in the west.
• In the east, canola bids were down $4 to $816, with GM at $755.
• Barley bids remained firm around $312, with some spot demand from east coast end users providing a better option over harvest.
• Chickpea bids have now found support around $850 for Jan+ delivered Brisbane, indicating competitiveness in markets outside of India at this level, given the upcoming tariffs.

International grain and oilseed tenders & trade

• Algerian state agency ONAB is believed to have made no purchase in a tender which closed on Wednesday for up to 240,000 metric tons of animal feed corn sourced only from Argentina or Brazil. ONAB has issued a new tender for 240,000 tons of corn with offers to be submitted on Friday, Nov. 15. Corn shipment in the new tender is sought in up to six consignments each of between 30,000 and 40,000 tons, again sourced from Argentina or Brazil only. Shipment is sought between Dec. 1-15, the same as Wednesday’s tender.

Outside markets ...

Energy markets

Oil prices closed slightly higher in choppy trading.

• Notably, Brent crude futures settled 0.4% higher, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 0.4%.
• Both benchmarks had briefly dipped into negative territory during the trading session.
• A steep draw in U.S. fuel stocks outweighed oversupply concerns and demand worries stemming from a stronger dollar.
• U.S. gasoline stocks fell by 4.4 million barrels last week, the Energy Information Administration said.
• The stockpile of 206.9 million barrels for the week ended Nov. 8 was the lowest since November 2022.
• Distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, fell by 1.4 million barrels.
• Meantime, U.S. gasoline futures settled 0.8% higher, while heating oil futures closed down about 0.3% after briefly spiking on the data.
• Capping oil-price gains, however, was a 2.1-million barrel rise in U.S. crude inventories last week.
• Also, the International Energy Agency forecast global oil supply will exceed demand in 2025 even if cuts remain in place from OPEC+, as rising production from the U.S. and other outside producers outpaces sluggish demand.
• Meantime, the dollar surged to a one-year high, making dollar-denominated oil more expensive for holders of other currencies, which can reduce demand.

This morning, oil prices fell, as investors weighed signs demand in top crude importer China continues to underperform amid the country's uneven economic recovery and expectations of fewer Federal Reserve rate cuts.

• Notably, Brent crude futures dropped 1.31% by 0825 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down 1.3%.
• For the week, Brent is set to fall 3.06% while WTI is set to decline 3.67%.
• China's oil refiners in October processed 4.6% less crude than a year earlier, falling year-on-year for a seventh month, amid the closures of some plants and reduced operating rates at smaller independent refiners, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed.
• The decline in run rates occurred as China's factory output growth slowed last month and demand woes in its property sector showed few signs of abating even though consumer spending increased, government data showed.

Ocean freight markets

The Baltic Exchange's main sea freight index surged about 3.8% to its highest since October 15 at 1,692 points, reversing a 0.2% fall in the day before.

• The capesize index climbed by 190 points to 2,936 points.
• The panamax index rose by 5 points to 1,213 points.
• Conversely, the supramax index shed 7 points at 1,029 points.

Equity markets

US stock indexes retreated.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.5%, the S&P 500 fell 0.6%, and the Nasdaq composite sank 0.6%.
• Some of the stocks that got the biggest bump from Trump’s election lost momentum.
• Tesla fell 5.8%.
• US weekly initial unemployment claims fell -4,000 to a 5-1/2 month low of 217,000.
• US Oct PPI final demand rose +2.4% y/y.
• Oct PPI ex-food and energy rose +3.1% y/y.
• Hawkish comments from Fed Chair Powell reduced the chances of a Fed rate cut next month.
• Meantime, the 10-year T-note yield rose to a 4-1/2 month high, before ending -0.2 bp lower to 4.449%.
• Some positive corporate news limited losses.
• In Europe, the Euro Stoxx 50 closed up +1.97%.
• Eurozone Sep industrial production fell -2.0% m/m, posting the biggest decline in 8 months.
• China's Shanghai Composite Index closed down -1.73%.
• Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 fell to a 1-week low and closed down -0.48%.

This morning, Asian stocks were mixed.

• The Nikkei 225 index gained 0.3%, the Hang Seng in Hong Kong slipped 0.1%, the Shanghai Composite index dropped 1.5%, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 gained 0.7%, while South Korea’s Kospi edged 0.1% lower.
• Japan’s economy grew at a 0.9% annual pace in the July-September quarter, higher than the 0.5% increase in the previous quarter, even as the Bank of Japan raised its key interest rate to 0.25% from 0.1% in July.
• A report from the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics showed the nation’s retail sales rose 4.8% year-on-year in October, beating forecasts.
• But industrial output slowed from the previous month and improvements in the property industry were marginal.

Currency trading

The dollar index rose, posting a new 1-year high.

• Weekly jobless claims fell to a 5-1/2 month low.
• Oct PPI rose more than expected.
• Meantime, Fed Chair Powell said there’s no need for the Fed to hurry interest rate cuts.
• On the other hand, the EUR/USD tumbled to a 13-month low.
• Eurozone Sep industrial production posted its biggest decline in 8 months.
• Also, comments from ECB Vice President Guindos put pressure on the euro when he said the economic recovery in the Eurozone was weaker than expected.
• In addition, the dovish minutes of the Oct 16-17 ECB meeting weighed over the euro.
• The USD/JPY, meantime, rose, with the yen sliding to a new 3-1/2 month low against the dollar.

This morning, the dollar fell to 155.51 Japanese yen from 156.23 yen. The euro edged up to $1.0568 from $1.0534.

Settlement Prices for Key Commodity, Index & Currencies

• Chicago wheat Dec contract was down 10.6c/bu to 530.2c/bu;
• Kansas wheat Dec contract was down 7.6c/bu to 533c/bu;
• Minneapolis wheat Dec contract was down 4.4c/bu to 566.4c/bu;

• MATIF wheat Dec was up €1.25/t to €210.75/t;

• ASX wheat Jan '25 contract was up A$1/t to A$325/t;
• US DWI Cash (durum wheat index) was not available;

• 1CWAD (Canadian durum) avg spot price was up C$0.29/t to C$326.74/t.

• EDW (EU durum) Dec contract was up €5.5/t to €319.5/t;

• Chicago corn Dec contract was down 7.4c/bu to 419c/bu;

• MATIF corn Mar was up €1/t to €207.25/t;

• Chicago soybeans Jan was down 20.2c/bu to 987.4c/bu;
• Winnipeg canola Jan contract was down C$21.5/t to C$627.6/t;

• MATIF rapeseed Feb was down €4.5/t to €530.5/t;

• Brent crude Jan was up US$0.28/barrel to $72.56;

• WTI crude Dec was up US$0.27/barrel to $68.70;

• BADI (Baltic Dry Index) was up 62 points to 1.692;

• Dow Jones was down 207,33 points to 43.750,86;
• S&P 500 was down 36.21 points to 5.949,17;
• NASDAQ Composite was down 123,07 points to 19.107,65;

• US dollar index (Dec '24) was up 0.219 points to 106.598;

• AUD/USD weaker at US$0.6454;
• USD/CAD firmer at $1.4061;
• EUR/USD weaker at $1.0529;
• USD/RUB firmer at ?99.3911.

That's all, thank you.

We wish you a nice day.

Author: Sandro F. Puglisi

Source: Me, AAFC, ABARES, Abiove, AHDB, Amis, Argus Media, Baltic Exchange, Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, CFTC, CGC, China AgMin, Clear Grain Exchange, CME, Conab, Copernicus, CWG, ECB, ECMWF, EIA, Euronext, European Commission, Eurostat, FAO, FCI, FED, GASC, GIWA, ICE, IEA, IGC, IKAR, JRC MARS Bulletin, LSEG, MPOB, National Bureau of Statistics of China, ODC, OIAC, RBA, Reuters, Rosario Grain Exchange, Russia AgMin, Russian Grain Union, S&P Global, SovEcon, StatCan, USDA, UA AgMin, and Others ...

Note:

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