- MacroX's theme to clients over the past calendar year has been '"soft-landing" in the US with stable growth and declining inflationary pressures. Our real-time alternative-data-powered nowcasts of economic activity and the labor market have driven this strong conviction.
- The Fed has followed us with a 1-3 month lag and again today validated our call that inflation is on track - the labor market has cooled sufficiently, is no longer a "source of inflation pressures", but is also nowhere near a recession.
- Markets are currently pricing in ~75% chance of a 25bps cut in December and our data is showing that this might be too aggressive.
- Wouldn't it be cool to instantly decode Fedspeak and get a real-time second opinion and trade ideas? Well now you can via our new product.
- Today's press conference was mostly as expected but we did enjoy Powell bluntly addressing speculation that he would not serve out his full term with a very simple "No".
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