Nov 27am, FX/S&P/BTC Commentary
Euro-1.1325. Nothing really new to say here. The bigger picture bias is still slightly negative but we're testing first good support at 1.1300. If 1.1300 gives way or even better, a close below it, I'd expect a test of the 1.1220 low. This will test the bulls--see if they come back in. Seems since early August, whenever a big level of support gives way and prices drop quickly, the next day or over the next few days the move gets reversed. Today's range is only 50% of the 10-day average range so there is room to move. There is good resistance between 1.1354 and 1.1363 with 54 being yesterday's mid. Can sell early morning strength above 45 with stops above 63 looking for a move lower into NYK close testing 1.1300 support. Can also wait to see how the 950 to 1050am period trades versus the 920 to 950am period to set the tone. The left hand chart is the weekly $Yen. I'll let people smarter than me figure out the Risk on/Risk off trades as seems that's the big talk these days, but I am bullish $Yen. You can see on the chart, the magenta?? dashed horizontal line at 114.00 is a big level going back a few years. The market has been banging up against it since September now. The longer the market trades sideways just below it, the greater the odds it breaks and when it does, I expect the market to follow through to 118.00 which is the next big low volume trading zone. Any weakness in here shouldn't get below 112.00. I expect the Yen crosses to go bid as well but iIll just focus on EurJpy since the others are also news and policy driven.
S&P-2665ish. No change in view here. I still think the 2635ish down to 2600 is big support and holds and for a move to new highs next year. A print of 2850 confirms.
BTC-3700. Remember when Goldman postponed their IPO in October 1998 because the equity markets were getting crushed? Seems I have to follow their lead and postpone the TureCoin ICO I had planned for December. Now I'll have to wait for the BTC to get back above 10k. Just kidding. BTC is never getting back above 10k. In all seriousness, I do believe BTC is here to stay--I don't know what reason besides lower prices attracting more selling is causing the weakness but I do think longer term traders and or investors who need exposure should start to scale into longs if capable. In the short term however, there is no sign the bottom is in. BTC has disconnected lower again as you can on the point and figure chart. Would need a print of 4100 to just stabilize the market in short term mover above 5200 to suggest the low is in. Next target on the downside is 3000 to 2900.