Note on the impact of the war in Ukraine on Africa
On 24 February 2022, the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin announced the launch of a special military operation in Ukraine. Following this announcement, Russian troops deployed on Ukrainian territory.
This note, written on 10 March 2022, provides some insight into the importance of this conflict for Africa and the first steps for African countries to take.
I - Overview of relations between conflict countries and Africa
The relationship between Africa and the countries currently at war is not new. In the 1960s, many African countries had diplomatic and economic relations with the USSR, which included Russia and Ukraine. Despite the end of the Cold War and the crumbling of the USSR in the early 1990s, relations between Africa and these countries continued. On the one hand, Russia inherited the Soviet relationships in Africa in terms of military cooperation and heavy industry. On the other hand, Ukraine has increased its trade-in products such as wheat, sugar, rolled metal or chemical fertilisers with African countries.
Russia-Africa relations
Ukraine - Africa relationship
Long-standing and important economic relations
A popular land for African students
Russia and Ukraine import little from the African continent
Russia and Ukraine's agricultural imports from the continent are marginal - only USD 1.6 billion on average over the last three years. The dominant products are fruit, tobacco, coffee and beverages in both countries.
II - Africa's reaction to Russia's invasion of Ukraine
1 - Africa's first reactions following the declaration of war?
Country and Reactions
African Union?
South Africa
Non-permanent African members of the Security Council
Countries that have close military cooperation with the Russian Federation
Maghreb countries
2) Reactions of African countries to the UN General Assembly resolution on the conflict in Ukraine
No common front at the UN
A resolution against the Russian invasion was adopted on Wednesday 2 March with a massive margin of 141 votes in favour out of the 193 member states of the UN General Assembly.
28 African countries voted in favour of the resolution condemning the Russian invasion.
Some 17 African countries abstained from the vote at the UN General Assembly. They were Algeria, Burundi, Senegal, South Africa, Southern Sudan, Uganda, Mali and Mozambique. The other countries were Sudan, Namibia, Angola, Zimbabwe, Equatorial Guinea, Central African Republic, Madagascar, Tanzania and Congo.
Eritrea was the only African country to vote against the resolution.
8 African countries did not vote.
II - Overview of the impacts of the war in Ukraine on Africa
1 - On the humanitarian level: The urgent need to support Africans living in Ukraine
With the outbreak of war, there are increasing concerns about their safety.
Macky Sall, the Senegalese President and current Chairperson of the African Union (AU) and Moussa Faki Mahamat, Chairperson of the AU Commission, expressed "their extreme concern over the very serious and dangerous situation in Ukraine" in a joint statement, calling on "the Russian Federation and any other regional or international actor to imperatively respect international law, the territorial integrity and national sovereignty of Ukraine".
2 - In economic terms
This war in Ukraine will have several consequences.
a - Soaring energy prices
Rising oil prices
Rising natural gas prices
- Europe is concerned that its relations with a neighbour that supplies nearly 40% of its energy needs each year will deteriorate over time.
b - Forecasts of price increases for certain minerals
Bauxite and gold prices on the rise
Rising gold prices
Rising prices for other minerals
c - A sharp rise in the price of cereal products
- With 13 to 14 million tonnes purchased each year, Egypt is the world's largest buyer of Russian wheat. The authorities have just announced that they have a four-month reserve.
- Algeria also obtains 10% of its needs from Moscow, the world's leading exporter, while Morocco (12%), Tunisia (48%) and Libya (43%) have chosen to buy from Ukraine, the world's fourth largest wheat seller.
- In sub-Saharan Africa, countries such as Togo, Cameroon, Senegal and Nigeria, which are increasingly sourcing from Russia, could also be heavily affected.
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The combination of these consequences poses serious risks of social disruption in African countries already severely affected by several situations of fragility as well as the Covid pandemic.
3 - On the political level
In addition to threatening African economies, the war in Ukraine could have a devastating political and diplomatic effect on some African states. African governments may come under diplomatic pressure to take sides in the escalating dispute between Russia and Western powers.
The war in Ukraine will lead to increased military spending in rich countries to rearm. These increases in military spending, which come after a Covid-19 crisis that has severely strained state finances, will come at the expense of spending on tackling major challenges such as poverty, pandemics, education, inequality and the climate crisis.
Finally, this war will have potential and unpredictable consequences in countries in crisis where Russians and Westerners are already fighting, such as the Central African Republic, Mali, Sudan, Libya, etc. ?
III - Urgent and priority areas of action for African states
African states must act at least on three levels:
On the humanitarian front, it is important that Africa acts quickly.?If a continental strategy is not adopted, regional economic communities should organise themselves to :
a)??????Put in place mechanisms to facilitate the extraction of African nationals from war zones and their return to their respective countries. A pooling of resources could be of definite added value.
b)?????Activate all diplomatic networks and mechanisms for the fair treatment of African nationals in European countries. In particular, ensure that they are not subjected to discriminatory treatment such as that seen at the borders of some countries at the beginning of this war.
c)??????Put in place arrangements to ensure continuity of training in other countries for African nationals whose studies are permanently interrupted or compromised. A significant proportion of the students specialised in engineering and medicine. These are very important fields for African countries.
In economic terms, it is important to :
a)??????Take measures at national, regional and continental level to mitigate the negative effects of this crisis. This implies consultations between governments and African stakeholders in order to find appropriate ways of supporting the most vulnerable populations.
b)?????Organise also at national, regional and continental levels to seize the opportunities that this situation could bring. Opportunities exist for countries to become suppliers to Europe, which is in the process of reducing its dependence on Russia.
c) Most importantly, there is a need to accelerate the structural transformation of African economies in order to ensure the continent's food sovereignty. After the COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine is a reminder of the urgency of developing African productive capacities.
On the political and diplomatic level, African states would benefit from:
a)??????Working together to reaffirm their values and interests and to present common positions in all the international forums in which they will be called upon to express their views.
b)?????Contributing to the achievement of a ceasefire and to the search for durable solutions that take into account the interests of all stakeholders in the international system.
c)??????Intensifying consultations with their various partners so that the commitments made to development projects and crisis resolution in Africa are maintained and even intensified.
d)?????Drawing all the political and geopolitical lessons from the consequences of this major conflict in Eastern Europe.
These three areas of work are minimum elements for African states at the individual and collective level to deal with this major upheaval in the world today.
About the authors
This sheet is produced by STRATEGIES! Consulting firm based in Douala, Cameroon. It is a firm specialised in leadership and management that delivers its services in Africa as well as in Europe and the United States. STRATEGIES! supports private companies as well as national and international public institutions. It has been in existence for 27 years and is headed by Kah Walla.
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·??????[1] It is important to note that the continent has 18 oil producing countries: Nigeria, Angola, Algeria, Libya, Egypt, Republic of Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Ghana, South Sudan, South Africa, Chad, Sudan, Cameroon, Ivory Coast, Tunisia, Democratic Republic of Congo, Niger.
Apart from a dozen oil producing countries, the vast majority of African countries are net oil importers. The continent's energy dependence is very high.
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