A Note on a Dynamic Probability Distribution

How very pleased I am that my uncle, Prof. Dieter K?hle from Talheim, remembers the fruitful collaboration with my late father, Michael F. Koebel.

In the newspaper “Heilbronner Stimme”, K?hle recalls a statistical journal article from 1981 in which Koebel mathematically models and predicts the spread of an epidemic or its decline and breakdown. This article was published in a special edition of the "Statistische Hefte" and was titled "A Note on a Dynamic Probability Distribution". 

Back then, the lack of processing power limited any predictive simulation to a population of only a few hundred. During the #COVID-19 #pandemic, this model has tragically gained renewed interest and relevance.