Nostradavus 2024 Predictions!

Hello and Happy New Year!??

Yes, we are still in the window for that even though it’s late January. That’s the problem with receiving visions for the future, they don’t always fit neatly into the Gregorian calendar. Anyhow, welcome to the annual Nostradavus predictions for telecom, technology, and anything else I want to pontificate and prognosticate about.?

For those of you who are new to this annual article, here’s how it works. I will make a series of predictions about the year ahead with a sometimes windy, often wordy rambling followed by a too long; don’t read (tl;dr) style summarization of the prediction, like so:

Prediction: After wandering the NFL desert for 12 weeks and leaving themselves for dead at 6-6, the Buffalo Bills, after swearing allegiance to the power of terrorism go on a miraculous run to win their first Super Bowl with MVP Josh Allen accounting for 6 touchdowns to outweigh his 5 turnovers in the final game.?

Key Takeaway: I mean seriously, I can’t do this anymore. Can we all agree to just have a Bills/ Lions Super Bowl so that at least one fan base can end their suffering. I think we would all be OK with that. Can someone call Roger Goodell, this is a dream scenario, storyline-wise.?

Note: Did Nostradavus start this article before yet another gut-punch loss from the Buffalo Bills? Yes, yes, he did. Being a Bills fan is awesome. Wide right? Really? We already did that one; have we run out of new ideas? Go Lions, I guess?

For those of you who anxiously await these predictions so you can kill a chunk of time instead of working, thanks for coming back, and as always, only wager half of your net worth or less on my crystal ball, these predictions are cryptic, mysterious, and most certainly not financial advice!?

On to the predictions...?

“Um, Nostradavus, super excited to see you make stuff up and take stabs in the dark, but aren’t you forgetting something?”?

Silly me, how could I forget. For those of you who need to feel smug and self-superior because a leading internet soothsayer was completely wrong with his guesses, let’s go to the tape from last year. If you are a smart, sexy, we don’t need roads where we’re going kind of cat, skip ahead to the fearless forecast for 2024.

2023 Predictions in Review?

1. CX, CX, and more CX!?

I have been on this topic like a pitbull on a porkchop for a couple of years and I will continue to quadruple down on it. My only regret to this point is that my belief in excitement in the fact that customer experience is not getting the attention or thoughtful investment that is needed to drive the positive customer outcomes that are inevitable when you get these interactions right. The data is incontrovertible. At this point, companies that are investing in CX and putting in the time and effort to get it right are separating from their competitors. This trend is just getting started.?

Grade: A, with a couple of footnotes. Companies that are prioritizing CX are winning, but there is a potential downside, particularly as it relates to the many AI tools that have flooded the CX market in the last couple of years. With legacy companies rebranding as “AI” and new tools that are not yet battle tested entering the fray, many CX improvement initiatives are going awry and not achieving the results that were hoped for. This is avoidable and as with any new technology, avoiding the pitfalls is as important as what you get right.?

2. A large state-sponsored act of cyber-terrorism occurs?

I had predicted that last year would see a large-scale, government-sponsored attack and despite it being another year of non-stop bad news on the cyber-attack and compromise front, there was no all-out assault on national infrastructure in the U.S. or western European nations. That said, the early January grounding of all air travel in the US raises suspicion. I am leery when something at that scale gets reported as “a software bug”??

Grade: C- To be honest, the prediction was a little bit askew, it’s not like any nation state is going to cop to this with Putin going on TV and saying “how did you like not flying on January 11th?? That was us suckers."

The sad reality is that this war is being waged in the shadows and many of the most sophisticated hacking collectives, while not technically state sponsored are in fact, de facto units of the military in countries like Russia.?

3. The debate about the future of work, office hybridity, and work-life-balance heats up?

Oh, buddy, did I ever hit this one on the screws. Between big companies demanding people get back into the office and employees demanding some measure of the quality-of-life they had come to enjoy during the pandemic, this topic has mushroomed into a tug of war between corporate America and the labor force that still has a long way to go before resolution. Big companies are saying that they are losing collaboration and innovation with everyone working remotely, while employees hear that as, “get back in the office where we can keep an eye on you”, and “please enjoy your 10 hours a week of unpaid commuting time”.

On top of that, organizations large and small are investigating tools to automate what was human labor and reduce or even remove the need for people. I for one look forward to our Jetson’s style future where most work is performed by robots and people have time to live their lives as they imagined. Either that or Rosie the Robot Maid leads the machine uprising and enslaves us all. Nostradavus is very bullish on the future in general and is generally just excited to see what happens next.?

Grade: A+++ This is going to continue to shake out over several years as we collectively find the right sweet spot for hybrid work, reimagine downtown areas and the office spaces that are now sitting half occupied, and integrate AI tools into our work that allow more time for the business of being human. The reality is, being told that you must go to the office to sit on the same 8 hours of Zoom meetings you were taking from home is not the best use of the energy and creativity that lies within us all. A lot of ink has been spilled on the general differences and frictions that exist here, it’s going to take all of us working together to figure this out.

4. The Economic Storm sinks some telecom ships?

Is it just me, or was 2023 the strangest economic year of all time? We were told there were headwinds and organizations everywhere were preparing to deal with what looked like an inevitable recession. Companies laid off workers and cut spending projects while interest rates and inflation shot up like a rocket making houses, cars, gas, and food more expensive for all of us. While we were all braced for the worst, the US economy showed its resiliency ending the year with record corporate profits, all-time stock market highs, and record low unemployment. That said, the cost of money did hit some companies in the telecom sector hard with data center provider Cyxtera and ISP Internap filing Chapter 11. Do I get to count the latest Avaya bankruptcy, or are we just treating that like an event we can count on happening every year??

Grade: A- While companies in the telecom sector did not fail en masse, a lot of the signs of distress and trouble were there with stock prices hitting all-time lows at giants like AT&T and Lumen and mass layoffs into the hundreds of thousands across the industry. Look for more struggles in the year ahead as companies continue to grapple with the problem of no longer having cheap money available to kick the can of bad decisions and unprofitable business models down the road.?

5. Metaverses and NFT Marketplaces Take Center Stage?

OK, I swear, I am not going to be a crypto bro this year and predict the mass adoption of Web3, Defi, blockchain or anything else, though I do still hold firm that all of this stuff is happening, and we are in the change-happening-very-slowly phase of change-happens-slowly-and-then-all-at-once. There are a lot of people focused on these topics and big investments are being made in all things blockchain and Web3, we just aren’t seeing and feeling it in our daily lives. There are some arguments that the Metaverse is already here, though I would say that it is still very much not a part of life the way social media is today.?

Grade: D. OK I’m done, the Mean Girls were right, I need to stop trying to make blockchain happen. I’m selling all my crypto and NFT’s and trading them for Beanie Babies and Stanley Cups.

Once again, I’ve hit my incredibly high bar of “you win some, you lose some” with these predictions. I nailed a few and missed, but not completely on a couple. Remember kids, Cs and Ds earn degrees!?

On to 2024!?

1. More CX, I am not letting this go!?

This is the third year straight that I am predicting that customer experience will be a major driver of technology investment and corporate strategy, and not just for business to-consumer companies. With the proliferation of new AI tools and all the data pointing to the fact that companies who are investing in best-in-class customer service and loyalty programs are outperforming their competitors in every key metric, the race to be a leader in CX is all the way on and will not be slowing anytime soon. Customers are demanding highly personalized, frictionless experiences from the brands they do business with, and it’s not just millennials and Gen-Z, we are all digital citizens now and whether you like it or not, your brand isn’t being digitally compared to your competitors, but to the best and easiest experiences people are getting from companies like Uber, Amazon, and yes, even United Airlines and their wonderful new app. Even B-to-B companies are winning market share with these initiatives. You have two choices at this point, ignore it at your own peril, or call Eclipse to help beat the pants off your competition.?

Key Takeaway: If you’re not investing heavily in customer experience and journey, you’re simply not paying attention at this point.

2. The Inevitable White-Collar Disruption of work from AI begins?

The narrative right now is, “No, AI is your friend. It’s here to make your job easier. It doesn’t want to take your job and make you homeless. It’s your copilot buddy!” The reality is that this isn’t exactly how capitalism works. Profit motivated companies have an impetus to drive profitability and efficiency and if a machine, that doesn’t get sick, complain, take time off, or make human errors can do the job, you best believe your new friend will be taking that job. Look for jobs adjacent to the highest skilled professions to start being disrupted, think paralegal work, copywriters, bookkeepers in accounting firms, etc. This will start as a trickle and as AI models improve and specialize, eventually becoming a waterfall in certain industries. Over time this disruption will be as impactful, maybe more so than, the impact of manufacturing automation. That all being said, don’t take up arms against the robot overlords just yet, because…?

Key Takeaway: Let the chaos begin, AI is going to start disrupting office work.?

3. This will be the year of AI Disappointment?

We are all the way in the depths of the hype cycle on AI, which means a series of things. 1) New participants will enter the market with half-baked tools that get marketed and sold without solving the challenges they say they will. 2) Legacy platforms will suddenly proclaim themselves as AI. (If you want to rile up resident Eclipse AI expert, Matt Dickson, come tell him how your 20-year-old platform is suddenly a leading AI tool). 3) Companies will get FOMO and make rushed decisions to just put anything in, leading to inevitable disappointment and outright failure. This will be the year of CEOs telling subordinates, “Johnson, I just read about this AI in the airplane magazine, why do we not have that? Go get us some AI right now or I’ll find someone who will.” The reality is, to do this right, you need to slow down, assess what you are trying to accomplish, and make thoughtful decisions. Unlike many other technology investments, AI is not RonCo “set-it-and-forget-it", it will need ongoing tuning, attention, and iteration. Half the battle right now is avoiding the common mistakes that are already being made, this can be done well, you just need to call Eclipse.?

Key Takeaway: As you begin your journey on implementing and using AI tools, avoiding mistakes is just as important as what you get right.

4. Immersive Digital Workspaces Emerge?

This ties in nicely with the ongoing conversation on the future of work. There is a lot unsettled here, and I know that corporate America wants this to be a command-and-control conversation with the solution being something to the effect of “shut up and get back into the office”. The reality is that all of us are going to have to work together to find a new way forward. I agree with some of the sentiment that offices are great for collaboration, innovation, and moments of serendipitous “do- you-have-five-minutes-to-work-through-an-idea?” magic. But they are also a place of distraction, noise, and if you have a substantial commute every day, diminished quality of life. We are foolish if we do not continue to embrace the digital tools that we have and the next generation that will have us feeling more together in digital space. Listen, I am a people guy, I love being in the room and at the whiteboard, and there will never be a full replacement for three-dimensional human interaction. That said, we have a once-in-a-generation opportunity to redefine productivity, teamwork, and work-life balance. We are obligated to keep tinkering and exploring. Going back to what we were all doing in 2019 would be an enormous, missed opportunity. Now let’s all throw on our 3-D headsets and discuss those TPS reports!?

Key Takeaway: The technology we use to connect and collaborate gets more robust and immersive. Ready Player One meets Office Space.?

5. Quantum Computing Breaks Through?

This is my longest shot prediction, but one that is an inevitability at some point in the future. There are a lot of challenges with getting to a place where Quantum can effectively start to replace classical computing models, not least of which is the inability to run at room temperature. Cooling cost alone makes widespread adoption problematic today. This is a global race to gain the advantage of this exponentially powerful style of computing with nation states and the most well-funded companies sprinting towards the future. When quantum computing does become more prevalent, the world as we know it will change completely. All cyber security measures that exist today will become irrelevant, AI will quickly blow past humanity as the most intelligent species on the planet, and we will unlock secrets to longevity that will have us living well beyond where we do today. The science fiction future is speeding towards us. Let’s hope we are ready when it arrives.?

Key Takeaway: Quantum computing advances to the point where it enters mainstream consciousness the way ChatGPT did last year.?

There you have it, another 100% guaranteed to be a somewhat accurate set of fearless predictions.?

As always, throw your comments and your own predictions in the comment section of LinkedIn and thanks to the 7 of you who were able to grind it all the way out til the end.?

I hope that the year ahead finds you filled with joy, wonder, love and abundance.??

Dave?