Northern Ireland Local Elections: What does this mean for Westminster?

Last week, Northern Ireland took to the polls to elect their new local councils just a mere two weeks after many voters around England did the same. After the Conservative Party suffered steep losses in the English local elections, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak would have been looking to Northern Ireland for some respite, in the hope that they could offer a glimmer of hope that power-sharing might return to Stormont. Regrettably for Sunak, the local elections in Northern Ireland granted historic results, which are likely to have far-reaching implications to reverberate from across the Irish Sea.

Power-sharing and the Good Friday Agreement

In a poignant juxtaposition, this year commemorated 25 years of the Good Friday Agreement (GFA) — a historic peace accord that laid the groundwork for resolving the longstanding conflict in Northern Ireland through the principles of power-sharing, collaboration, and acknowledgement of diverse identities. However, the celebrations unfolded against the backdrop of the political institutions in Northern Ireland being suspended, a consequence of a bitter dispute over post-Brexit trading arrangements.

There was an expectation that results would yield a clear mandate for either Sinn Féin or the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) to break the political deadlock and advance their respective political agendas. However, the outcome has added more uncertainty to an already complex situation.

Sinn Féin's Milestone and the Decline of Unionist Parties

Sinn Féin has now emerged as the largest party in both local government and Stormont, marking a significant milestone in Northern Ireland's political landscape. The non-aligned Alliance Party also saw success which reaffirmed its position as the third-largest party in Northern Ireland. The DUP’s vote share remained unchanged placing them as the second largest party in local government, whereas the parties of the wider unionist movement parties saw their vote shares significantly decline.

Challenges in Restoring the Executive

Whilst the results are being heralded as a momentous win for Sinn Féin, this success should not be misconstrued as a failure of the DUP.?In truth, the leader of the DUP Jeffery Donaldson, has emerged in a strengthened position with his unionist challengers losing large shares of the vote. In most areas, the DUP held its ground and even made gains in others. ?The party will interpret this as a reaffirmation of their opposition to the trade border in the Irish Sea and will therefore continue to oppose Sunak's Windsor Framework - putting the brakes on any immediate possibility of a return to power sharing.

With the nationalist mandate strengthened, there is an expectation that Sinn Féin’s vice-president Michelle O’Neill will push for Irish reunification. However, in the wake of the election, O’Neill called on the British and Irish Governments to focus their efforts on the immediate restoration of the Executive.

Budget Crisis and Political Tensions

As Westminster continues to run Stormont, Northern Ireland is facing real-term cuts to its public services amid soaring inflation. Northern Ireland Secretary Chris Heaton-Harris has had to step in and set the budget with civil servants running the executive departments. Following the results, Heaton-Harris has made calls on the DUP to restore power-sharing in Stormont, stating that no new financial packages will be considered for Northern Ireland until the Executive is restored. Echoing these calls is the head of the Northern Ireland Civil Service Jayne Brady, who wrote to the four largest parties pleading with them to form a government at Stormont.

With all being said, there is speculation that the DUP will now be looking to revive power-sharing. Their price would be a legislative amendment which cements Northern Ireland’s place as a trading partner with the UK, codifying in legislation that all goods produced in Northern Ireland will always be allowed to move freely in the UK even if they are set to EU standards. It is said the package will also call for an increased funding package for the region – an added degree of political contention in which Sinn Féin has warned Westminster that the financial package would not be “one party’s Wishlist”.

What happens next?

The recently agreed Windsor Framework represented a breakthrough moment for Rishi Sunak, showcasing a breakaway from the Johnson and Truss administrations and proving that he was committed to moving things forward, with multiple parties to break the political impasse. There is no doubt that the growing nationalist vote and the strengthened DUP position will be a further thorn in Sunak’s side, with both parties cementing their mandate thus increasing political tensions. But, as we near the next General Election, Sunak needs political wins to demonstrate progress. With neither side in Northern Ireland showing a willingness to concede, he may need to compromise if he is to be successful in breaking the deadlock and restoring the Executive.?