North Korea in Ukraine: A Limit in the "No Limits Partnership" between Russia and China?

Benjamin Tocchi, 07 November 2024

Discussion surrounding the recent deployment of North Korean troops in the Russo-Ukrainian War has been centered on how these reinforcements will change the facts on the ground as the conflict approaches its third year. However, the recent agreement between Russia and North Korea, and the possibilities of what Pyongyang will receive in return, has the potential for a consequential limit in the "No Limits Partnership" between Moscow and Beijing.

Though much is made about the "axis" of Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea, this is not an alliance in the traditional sense of diplomatic and defense relations. Unlike NATO, a multilateral series of agreements between member states, the alliance, and the other member states, the current relationship between the four states are bilateral spokes radiating from Moscow. While Beijing, Pyongyang, and Tehran are united with Moscow in opposing the Western "rules-based" international order, there is little commonality between the four outside their enmity against Washington. Each chooses to support Moscow for its specific geo-political aims, increasing the chances of disharmony between the three Asian members, and resembling a constellation more than a straight-line axis.

While the participation of Chinese "volunteers" ultimately saved North Korea from utter annihilation during the Korean War, the Soviet Union was historically the primary benefactor and patron of Pyongyang. North Korea's Soviet orbit is illustrated by the Stalinist nature of the Kim dynasty's rule down to the Soviet DNA and architecture of the Pyongyang Metro. It was only in response to the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 that China supplanted Russia as North Korea's patron.

Beijing has taken a cautious approach towards the Hermit Kingdom in the decades since. China's primary policy towards North Korea has been to provide enough aid to the Kim dynasty to ensure the continuation of the North Korean state as a buffer between China and the capitalist economies and US treaty allies of South Korea and Japan. An assertive, unpredictable, and self-sufficient North Korea has never been viewed positively by Beijing. The Chinese lifeline has been enough to keep the Kim dynasty on life-support and dependent on Beijing's generosity but never sufficient to enable the development of a stable neighbour.

This calculation now looks less stable in light of North Korea's military agreement with Russia. Whether or not Moscow and Pyongyang's agreement received Beijing's consent, Russia will undoubtedly provide some form of "rent" for borrowing North Korean military forces. With Kim now availing himself of either Russian military hardware and expertise, energy exports, or both, North Korea will become less dependent on China than at any time since 1991.

North Korea's increasing ties with Russia and the fruits of any Russian payment-in-kind will magnify the contrasts between Russian and Chinese geo-political strategies and foreign policy aims. The most immediate impacts will be the increased capabilities and opportunities of the Kim regime, along with a new Russian check against accelerating Chinese supremacy in the Sino-Russian partnership. Long-term, this will cause conflict between Russia and China and their divergent methods towards power projection and foreign policy aims.

Under Vladimir Putin, Russia has pursued a policy of strategic destabilization and upholding an anarchic world order, ensuring Moscow has the space to pursue its strategic interests. On the contrary, Beijing prefers a multi-polar world order based on stable and predictable ties modeled on Imperial China's hegemonic relationship with its "vassal" neighbouring states. The People's Republic of China may be an authoritarian and revanchist quasi-communist state, but it is still true to its imperial roots. A self-sufficient and assertive North Korea is not in China's long-term plans, nor in Beijing's interest.

As the Russo-Ukrainian War continues to devolve into a meat-grinding quagmire, the balance of power in the Sino-Russian partnership will continue shifting towards Beijing and away from Moscow. The long-term implications of increased Russian support and ties with a Chinese vassal state will increase frictions between the two powers, and a rising China is increasingly in the position to start placing limits on the "No Limits Partnership" between the two historic rivals.

"We have no eternal allies, as we have no perpetual enemies. Our interests are eternal and perpetual, and those interests it is our duty to follow." – Henry Temple, 3rd Viscount Palmerston

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