That Noise Is Time Teetering With The World's Destiny Again

“Don't spend time beating on a wall, hoping to transform it into a door.” ? -Coco Chanel

Coco Chanel was right, sometimes you either can't change things or they already have a path and it makes no sense to fight the future. The challenge is to be ready for it. But ready for what? What will 2030 look like? And what's the path there? Click on the image above to read the article.

What is the stock market telling us?

Consumer headwinds are very obvious and it is unclear if they will be very serious. Amazon this week saw a decline in its growth. Now those who don't like this brand may celebrate. They should hold off because it doesn't mean consumers are shifting to more physical retail. Is Amazon the new consumer and business economic bellwether stock? It might be and we should pay attention. Also increases in retail revenue with inflation does not make a return to days gone by, inflation is what it is, higher prices and it can and will erode consumer confidence if it remains persistent. Add in a war and the sentiment is not very positive. However, it should come as no surprise because you can't have a two year event like the pandemic and pretend that it is back to normal with the snap of finger and that all will be as it was. The question is how do businesses survive in this environment? Here are some thoughts and reading.

Retailing A Different World - One Continuous Experiment

"Retailing is an imperfect industry in an imperfect consumer economy." As such competing in a Pandemic era economy which is filled with uncertainties and unprecedented challenges from inflation, higher interest rates, continued supply chain disruptions and a war with a threat to attack the world with Nuclear Weapons is unthinkable. But the world rambles on. We have to conduct business, work, feed and cloth ourselves provide shelter and a safe environment for loved ones. The world moves on and life happens.

To be successful in retailing it isn't just one thing! It is a multitude of small and large moving parts that converge on each other. In the end creating a brand and or experience that is memorable with an existing brand is a larger order that requires investment and commitment. Nevertheless some rules are immovable, innovation, creative designs, smart customer analytics that identify opportunities and marketing intelligence that converts that to traffic and sales. Building a brand is also about the coveted customer experience, which in my view means something different in every organization and most are very much disconnected from their customer's beliefs. Of course the old age problem is how do you deliver something that needs emotional equations? Quite often most theories are marred by individuals and rhetoric by some who have never created or delivered it within an organization. There is no question that before an organization launches their customer experience initiatives they should evaluate how customer obsessed they really are.

Retail analytics are only as good as your market intelligence officers

Just for perspective consumers create about 2.5 quintillion bytes of data each day. That's an impressive number but it is also useless if this data can't be extrapolated and used to engage with your ideal customers. Your collection of data (customer information) is only as good as you are able to identify opportunities to improve sales and costs. IBM say's that 62% (global) retailers reported that the use of information (Big Data and analytics) is developing advantages for their organizations. Read more here It's been mentioned before here that data and supply chains are king makes in retail. There is a rough ride ahead however staying in the game is another challenge and without the right data growth can be muted. The problem, gut instincts were fine when the whole retail world operated that way. It doesn't anymore.

Geopolitics - The wars for resources

Mineral resources to build the future are politically charged. The raw resources needed to build batteries and the cleaner future are spread out in countries that are either friendly or opposed to democracy. A path to a world without dependence on oil will not be easy but necessary. Although it will lead to other resources in countries with less human rights and environmental laws the risk in funding those nations can't be allowed to happen. So, we may need to dig domestically to achieve that. Read more Canada needs to build its lithium and cobalt mining to compete. Globe and Mail

The war that Russia illegally started could last 10 years and it could escalate. There is a lot of sabre rattling from Russia with threats of using nuclear and other weapons on anyone interfering or causing a strategic threat to their country. But what does that mean? NATO members are already supporting Ukraine and they continue to arm them. And in the midst of all this Russia continues to face significant losses. So when do they determine it's enough and act on their threat? In addition the toll on the global trade and reliance on energy from Russia to the EU will begin to change. Read more The attack on Ukraine is also creating trade and supply issues. Not to forget that many believe this war is about Russia controlling natural resource supremacy in the European continent. Read this

Consumer confidence

What are consumers thinking? A lot depends on who and what you read in business and politics, when it comes to the economy, housing, inflation and the job market. The last three by the way do influence consumer confidence a great deal. And yet despite what some business and industry associations might have you believe, for example, increased spending in food is not necessarily a sign a positive consumer confidence. We have to eat and we need to buy those goods, paying more for food items means less in the cart for many. That can be psychologically a negative on consumer confidence. In this article by National Jeweller they clearly callout the impact on less affluent consumers. However, in France (Financial Post) and the UK consumer confidence comes with a harsher and different view BNN Bloomberg about things simply getting worse! One can only imagine what consumer confidence is like in China with the lockdowns.

Inflation or Stagflation?

The idea of either situation escalating should have us all concerned. Although, it should be pointed out that despite the exit from the Spanish flu in 1920 and the roaring twenties that followed, the world did not walk away unscathed. They went through a period of severe deflation that lasted about 18 months. For stagflation to take root you need inflation (we've got that), a decline in economic growth (the US had a hint of that) and high unemployment (not at this time unless layoffs accelerate). Don't panic! The underlying economic conditions showed a robust consumer confidence and spending. Europe is already facing stagflation, the war of course doesn't help much. Read more Is Europe a prelude to what North America might face? No one wants to say so. However if inflation does persist and consumers pull back, which is what the stock market is telling us, that means that layoffs may not be that far behind. For perspective Robinhood announced the lay off of 9.0% of its workforce. And pharma company Novartis is in the process of cutting $1.0 Billion in costs. Experience with downturns tells many of us who have gone through them that there are more organizational changes to come.

It's Ironic! Twelve months ago Bankers were coming out saying Canadians have too much savings in their accounts and they need to unlock and spend it. Curiously, the Bank of Canada is planning on punishing Canadians with higher interest rates for doing exactly that. Read this The Bank of Canada must recognize that while Canadians may have bought more goods than services and trips during the pandemic lockdowns, their cost of buying those goods has gone up because of the overly inflated prices (GREED) charged to ship these goods. Add in the lockdowns today in China and you have a long battle ahead.

The future of social media - free speech and the metaverse

Tweet, tweet, tweet! Elon Musk continues to fill the news with his pursuit to close the deal on Twitter. He's sold a lot of stock and could lose a billion dollars if the deal falls through. Read this. And Tesla did not have a good week, its value dropped by $126 Billion. This may also be because investors are wondering how much Musk can spread himself? Now to add some brevity you may want to listen to the Jackson Five Rockin Robin song where the word "tweet" is used. And if you listen to the lyrics you might just think of Elon as that Rockin Robin! Listen here some of the lyrics are here as well. "He rocks in the tree tops all day long Hoppin' and a-boppin' and singing his song, all the little birdies on Jaybird Street Love to hear the robin go tweet tweet tweet. " (Song writer Jimmie Thomas)

Meta (Facebook) this stock performed better last week than it has since February. It is quite possible that Zuckerberg saw the forest from the trees and his planning for Meta was ahead of the herd. It is also possible that Meta will be as much a challenge for Google as it will be for other social media sites. Zuckerberg believes that they will be ready for the world by 2030 with 17,000 employees working on AR and VR. I also believe that 2030 will be a pivotal year that's why we referenced 2022-2030 as the decade of change. Watch this CNBC

Is freedom of speech being stifled on social media and by governments? Have you lost your voice? Has it gone too far? And what should be acceptable and unacceptable? Are we truly progressive if we are afraid to speak up? Does it create more division when we are not? And does that create a stronger platform for populist movements? Read this article as it attempts to answer the same questions. New York Times and this one in Economist This may become the existential debate of our time.

Executive Decisions - What CEO's and Board Directors are thinking.

That Noise Is Time Teetering The World's Destiny Again. CEO's and Board Directors have barely recovered from the pandemic and it certainly feels like it's out of the frying pan into the fire this time! So, what should they be doing right now? Let's do this. The board is responsible for the well being of the organization, its strategies and continued performance. They work with management to identify risks and opportunities and ask a lot of questions about the performance of those strategies relative to the external economic and competitive environment. There are four questions that need to be asked and stay on their radar. 1. How much of our pandemic revenue is shifting to physical channels? 2. What are our operating challenges with each? 3. What are our risks to strategies and how well are we mitigating them? 4. What are the future opportunities that we need to build for?

Personal Log: True leadership starts with standing up for causes

I am a big believer that you do not define your leadership until you are willing to stand up and stand out on issues that impact society. Yes that is me last year fighting a quarry in our community. It may be hard for some to believe that someone who has held senior executive roles, director positions and even chair of a board would do this. Then again here I am and at the same time earning the respect of many community members. Leadership is a journey of risks and opportunities. I tell my kids that you need to increase the power of your faith in yourself and a higher being, if you chose to, so that you can strengthen your fate in life. When people like us are willing to stand up and standout we shake up the fabric of what is misaligned in the world. Silence does not make the world better.

Once again thank you for reading The Business Brief.

My intent is always to have us look at the issues with an open mind and a lot of questions. It is the only way to decipher the world. Besides it is also believed that effective intellectual leaders have an opposing mind, able to look at all sides of an issue and as a result make better decisions.

If you have any questions, need an advisor on your team or looking for someone to make keynote presentation I can be reached at [email protected]

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