Noise Noise Noise

"For tomorrow, I know, all the Who girls and boys will wake bright and early; they'll rush for their toys, and then - oh, the noise; oh, the noise, noise, noise, noise! That's one thing I hate: all the noise, noise, noise, noise!" Dr. Seuss's 'The Grinch' poignantly captures the overwhelming din in today's AI sphere. This constant buzz—encompassing real and speculative AI developments—symbolizes our times.

The Constant Clamor of AI Progress

The loud noise of AI announcements has become deafening. From speculative futurology to exaggerated marketing claims, the noise makes it hard to discern reality. This tidal wave of hype and controversy often drowns out genuine progress. AI Video, Live AI translations, Multimodal AI, MS Pilot with AI, Meta Text to graphics in Facebook. All this was just last week.

Before analyzing the signal within this noise, it's worth understanding why the AI sphere has become so noisy. Breakthroughs in natural language AI like ChatGPT have captured the public imagination. Businesses jostle for advantage in an accelerating arms race. Vying for attention, pundits make sweeping predictions while journalists sensationalize and rubbish. Literally, tens of billions of investment capital is at stake, and for MST, GOOGL, AMZN, and META, hundreds of billions are at stake.

Google's Gemini Demo Controversy

In an effort to catch up to Google, the search giant introduced its new multimodal AI system Gemini, showcasing its abilities in text, video, images, and code. The impressive videos that were initially met with excitement and praise, raised skepticism when compared to competitor ChatGPT.

During the high-profile on-stage presentation, Google demonstrated Gemini having detailed conversations, multitasking between topics, and admitting with knowledge gaps Gemini still outshines ChatGPT in capability and intelligence.

However, further examination revealed that the scenarios were narrowly tailored to favor Gemini over a handicapped version of ChatGPT. Critics pointed out that ChatGPT was not running the latest updated model, and its full capabilities were not displayed.

This realization cast doubt on the integrity of Google's benchmarking methods. The selective demo was perceived by many as exaggerating Gemini's current abilities to garner positive PR. This seeming display of deception called into question Google's trustworthiness in presenting its AI progress and comparisons.

The controversy surrounding the Gemini reveal reflects an emerging pattern of tech companies overstating their AI's readiness through carefully curated demos. While showmanship has always been part of tech product unveils, misleading hype versus honesty has become a rising point of contention. The Gemini demo raised questions about Google's sincerity and commitment to transparency.

Pattern of Deception

The Gemini demo controversy is not an isolated incident. Google has faced scrutiny in the past for overstating the capabilities of its AI projects in ways that erode public trust.

In 2018, Google demoed an impressive AI assistant, Duplex, who could book phone hair appointments. The demo appeared to showcase Google's mastery of natural conversation AI. However, it was later revealed that Duplex had been carefully curated to work only in limited scenarios with heavy reliance on human intervention. This sparked accusations that Google misled with a staged demo that exaggerated real progress. Five years later, Duplex is still not available.?Hmm, is Google already on the back foot and could quickly become the next Xerox, Polaroid, or Sears?

Transparency Creates More Noise

The immediacy of live releases and public testing for new AI models enables a new level of truth-seeking that many tech leaders are unaccustomed to. Rather than releasing marketing materials and press announcements about capabilities, the public release of models like Gemini and GPT-4 allows people worldwide to test and compare qualifications in real time.

This brings a new level of transparency that technology leaders are not accustomed to. Many came of age during the era of vaporware marketing, when companies could promise revolutionary capabilities that were more fiction than reality. Now, with generative AI and natural language interfaces, capabilities go from marketers' mouths to users' hands and eyes in seconds.

Hype is now deflated almost instantly when real-world testing reveals limitations. At the same time, genuine capabilities and innovation become quickly evident. This real-time public feedback loop cuts through marketing noise and focuses attention on actual model performance. This new transparency is uncharted territory for leaders who control narratives through carefully orchestrated announcements. But for the advancement of AI, transparent public testing may be the best way to discern reality from the hype in this noisy landscape.

Soap Opera Drama

The constant plot twists and revelations in the AI sphere make it seem like a gripping soap opera. One day, a new model seems revolutionary; the next, it's been exposed as all hype. The claims, counterclaims, and comparisons between companies evoke daytime television drama.

Make sure to get some popcorn as the year 2024 is expected to be a bumpy ride.

It's hard to discern where the truth ends and the speculation begins regarding recent AI announcements. The comparisons between models are designed for shock value rather than conveying any real meaning. Every day brings new revelations that upend what we thought before.

Conclusion

The AI hype cycle has been a wild ride, marked by impressive breakthroughs but also concerning missteps. Google's controversial Gemini demo highlighted the challenge of discerning reality from a marketing spin. While remarkable progress is being made, healthy skepticism remains warranted.

The constant plot twists and revelations in the AI sphere make it seem like a gripping soap opera. One day, a new model seems revolutionary; the next, it's been exposed as all hype. The claims, counterclaims, and comparisons between companies evoke daytime television drama. Make sure to get some popcorn, as 2024 is expected to be a bumpy ride.

Disclaimer: The musings and ramblings in this article are entirely my own concoction. They should not be mistaken for the official stance, policy, or wisdom of Aptean or any other entity in the universe. So, if you find yourself chuckling, puzzled, or eyebrow-raising intrigued, remember – it's all me, not them.