NOAA Upgrades Hurricane Forecast

The annual mid-season update issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts a 65% likelihood of an above-normal 2021 Atlantic hurricane season due to current atmospheric and oceanic conditions.

“After a record-setting start, the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season does not show any signs of relenting as it enters the peak months ahead,” NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad, Ph.D., said.

The NOAA’s May prediction was 13 to 20 named storms with winds 39 mph or greater and six to 10 hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or greater. Now, experts expect 15 to 21 named storms and seven to 10 hurricanes. Three to five of these hurricanes could become major, meaning winds are 111 mph or greater.

The latest outlook attributed the above-normal season to the reduced vertical wind shear and an enhanced west Africa monsoon. The tropics are expected to become busy during the last weeks of August through the beginning of September. If a La Ni?a pattern emerges over the eastern equatorial Pacific, it could keep Atlantic hurricane activity going into November.

?“Now is the time for families and communities to ensure their preparations are in place,” National Weather Service Director Louis W. Uccellini, Ph.D., said. “These storms can be devastating, so be prepared for all possible outcomes by staying tuned to the forecast and following safety information and possible evacuation notifications issued by emergency officials.”

?The National Hurricane Center is currently monitoring three disturbances that are believed to have low chances—30% or less—of development.

?The updated forecast is unwelcome news for property owners on the east coast of the United States and on the Gulf of Mexico. The new forecast serves as a reminder to stay vigilant throughout the remainder of the Atlantic hurricane season and to take proactive steps to protect their property and loved ones.

?Visit the NOAA website for more information on the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season.

?

? 2021 Zywave, Inc. All rights reserved.