No, No and No
Paula Allen
Telstra Business Awards judge, Strategy, tech, transformation and innovation C-level executive
In the last few weeks I have had two senior Chief Investment Officers and one Deputy say to me variants on ‘Geopolitics doesn’t matter as all investments are subject to it’, and that ‘Geopolitics hasn’t had much impact on markets’. These views are wrong, and it is important we understand why - those insights will help us navigate this new world.
Since WW2 geopolitics has been largely predictable. That was due to the USA setting up and maintaining the new world order (the UN, new treaties, rule of law, etc). That enabled us all to grow up thinking the world in which we navigated was pretty easy. We could plan, set new trade agreements, organise layers of supply chains, invest in new initiatives, all in the knowledge that our world was sure. Throw in the occasional shock, yes, but our world was largely predictable. Ultimately, that sure world enabled globalisation. We’ve been playing checkers - just see one or so moves ahead, nothing terribly complex to think through.
It's important to acknowledge that surer world, as realising what we’ve had enables us to imagine what to do if it’s no longer there or no longer reliable. For example, those supply chains.
Now we are playing chess. Now you have to see a number of moves ahead. Including allowing for some unforeseen, more complex, moves. Now the consequences of getting it wrong can be so much worse, that safety net we have all grown up with is fast unraveling. That is why geopolitics matters. It is the basis of our trade, our associations, our faith that the world is ‘known’ and safe. Now we have to cater for it not being so.
There are still excellent opportunities available, but now we will have to really think them through and debate them. Whoever gets that thinking right, can profit enormously. Get it wrong, and you can lose in ways not previously imagined. Now, it is chess, not checkers, and someone can always get antsy and upturn the chessboard! But if we do the work, we can be rewarded with extra insights, hence extra opportunities from which to benefit. Game on.
The meta data of those CIOs might be interesting in context but to openly state that macro does not matter is, shall we say, brave. This is a good article which I wholeheartedly support. Globalization, in all its forms and at all its levels peaked sometime ago (decades) but has not had much visibility until more recently. Strategists, CIOs, governments, etc, are more than a little behind the curve on post-peak globalisation and few will understand that moving away from the previous steady state is not just an inverse path.
Telstra Business Awards judge, Strategy, tech, transformation and innovation C-level executive
2 天前FYI, last week I gave an example as to how geopolitics can help investment teams and businesses generally. https://www.dhirubhai.net/pulse/how-business-investors-can-use-geopolitics-benefit-paula-allen-jq6mc/?trackingId=9YLsgqZlxGTnUNs%2BgUa04A%3D%3D
Retired
2 天前I don’t think you can predict someone who’s inherently unpredictable. If you guess right that’s just lucky. No way to run a global economy??
Founder and Chief Investment Strategist, Thinking Differently. Available exclusively from #portfolioconstructionforum.edu.au
2 天前Really? How truly frightening. Hope they are not looking after billions in super. There is a fundamental difference between the usual media noise over every utterance of politicians and what is happening now. You have called it a game of chess. I am writing an article comparing it poker.
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2 天前So far, it looks like geopolitical demolition. Easy to tear down. A challenge to build. But, maybe his strategy is to move USA to Mars?