NK reportedly sending troops to Ukraine ? Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar killed in Rafah ? Moldova EU membership vote marred by Russian interference
North Korea allegedly sending troops to help Russia's armed forces in Ukraine
On October 13th, 2024, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky claimed that North Korea is sending its troops to help Russia's armed forces in Ukraine. Russia is allegedly forming a North Korean battalion that could be deployed to Russia's Kursk region. Dmitry Peskov, Vladimir Putin’s spokesman, dismissed the allegations as ‘another hoax’ and ‘fake news’, however, South Korea's National Intelligence Service believes the claim to be accurate. Many countries, the United States among them, have previously accused North Korea of supplying arms to Russia, including ballistic missiles. Both countries have denied accusations of arms transfers, despite significant evidence suggesting otherwise.?
According to Ukrainian intelligence, North Koreans have been helping Russian military with engineering and provided information on the use of North Korean ammunition. Some North Korean officers have also reportedly been killed in a recent Ukrainian strike. Kim Yong-hyun, Minister of Defence of South Korea, indicated on October 15th, 2024, that further deployment of North Korean troops is highly likely due to a mutual agreement between Russia and North Korea ‘that is almost equivalent to a military alliance.’ Some reports suggest that sending North Korean soldiers to Russia may be for the purpose of wartime training and to collect information on the capabilities of its weapons to make adjustments.?
This development, if true, would mark a shift from transferring weapons to transferring regular troops, highlighting a growing alliance between Russia and North Korea. US National Security Council spokesperson, Sean Savett, noted that it would indicate ‘a new level of desperation for Russia.’ The two countries have strengthened their ties since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and again when Putin visited North Korea in June 2024 – the first such visit for more than two decades. The visit concluded with the two leaders signing a treaty pledging mutual military support in the event of an attack. At the time, Putin said that the two countries were ramping up ties to a ‘new level’ and Kim Jong Un expressed his full support for Russia's actions in Ukraine, framing them as efforts to protect Russian sovereignty and stability.?
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Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar killed in Rafah
On October 17th, 2024, the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) confirmed that Yahya Sinwar, Hamas’ leader since August 2024 and the architect of the October 2023 terror attack on Israel, had been killed the previous day. Khalil al-Hayya, a top political leader of Hamas, has since confirmed Sinwar’s death, while reiterating that no Israeli hostages would be returned until there is a ceasefire. Sinwar’s death has revived hopes of a ceasefire and hostage release, with him being seen by many as the main obstacle to reaching an agreement. At the same time, Hezbollah has threatened to launch a new phase of attacks against Israel, with new types of precision-guided missiles and explosive drones reportedly used in recent days.??
Sinwar, who had been hiding in Gaza's tunnels, was killed in a firefight during a routine patrol by the IDF in Rafah. The encounter was initially considered unremarkable, with three Hamas militants eliminated, and only upon closer inspection one of the bodies was identified as Sinwar's, confirmed the following day by DNA testing. The IDF had intensified operations around Rafah, based on intelligence suggesting Sinwar's presence, and the pressure, combined with the elimination of other Hamas leaders, had reportedly forced Sinwar's out of hiding. A spokesperson for the IDF said that Sinwar had probably been attempting to escape to the north ‘to safer areas,’ when he was killed.??
While Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Sinwar’s death marked ‘the beginning of the day after Hamas,’ he warned that the war in Gaza is not over until the remaining hostages have been released. He has convened a special meeting that focuses on negotiations for a hostage deal, however, any ceasefire opportunities will depend on who becomes Hamas’ next leader. According to Israeli officials, Yahya Sinwar’s brother Mohammed recently took over as military commander and is likely to continue his brother’s hard-line tactics if he becomes the group’s next leader. The other potential candidate, Qatar-based Khaled Meshal, a former chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau who remains a key leader in Hamas, is seen as more pragmatist. Nevertheless, until a clearer picture emerges, it will be difficult to tell the group’s next move.?
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Moldova narrowly votes in favour of joining the EU amidst Russian election interference accusations
In a closely contested referendum on October 20th, 2024, a very thin majority of 50.17% voted ‘yes’ for inserting a clause in the constitution that would define European Union (EU) membership as a goal, with around 51% of eligible voters casting ballots. The referendum took place alongside a presidential election, where President Maia Sandu secured 42% of the vote, leading to a runoff on November 3rd, 2024, against Alexandr Stoianoglo, a Russia-friendly former prosecutor general, who boycotted the referendum, calling it a scheme to boost Sandu's prospects in the presidential election. The votes were held amid claims of an intensified Russian ‘hybrid war’ to destabilise the country and derail its path to join the EU, with multiple reports of election interference.?
Peter Stano, a spokesperson for the EU, said that the vote took place under ‘unprecedented interference and intimidation by Russia and its proxies.’ The United States echoed these concerns, saying that Russia is actively working to undermine Moldova’s European integration. Sandu accused criminal groups of vote-buying, saying that Moldova has ‘clear evidence that these criminal groups aimed to buy 300,000 votes.’ In the run-up to the vote, Moldovan authorities alleged concerted attempts to meddle in the vote, including a vote-buying scheme by Ilan Shor, a pro-Russia oligarch convicted of fraud, who is currently living in Russia. Authorities also took down online resources they said hosted disinformation and announced they had uncovered plot in which more than 100 young Moldovans received training from private military groups in Russia on how to stage mass unrest.?
The referendum was crucial for the pro-Western government that has been in power in Moldova since 2021, which strongly supported the pro-EU campaign. Moldova applied for EU membership after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and was granted candidate status. The formal EU accession talks began in June 2024 and the country is aiming to join by 2030. Moldova’s relations with Russia have deteriorated since Sandu condemned the invasion of Ukraine and diversified energy supply away from Russia. However, some observers argue that pre-election polls had overestimated the pro-EU feeling in Moldova and that the ‘yes’ vote won only because of unusually high voter turnout among the Moldovan diaspora, who largely support EU integration. This kind of argument is likely going to help the narrative of Russia, which accuses Sandu's government of ‘Russophobia.’ Russia continues to deny interfering in the elections, with Russian government spokesman Dmitry Peskov claiming that Moldova's election was not free, and that the results showed a ‘hard-to-explain’ increase of votes in favour of President Maia Sandu and the EU. ?
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