Nitish v Modi v Rahul Speech Analysis.Mostly negative, some positive
I am sharing 3 charts analysing the content of speeches by each of Nitish, Modi and Rahul. They are organised by dates. Mr Nitish Kumar's speech is dated August while Mr Modi and Mr Gandhi spoke in September
Overall Summary:
1. A majority of time in all the speeches has been spent on negative attacks. (Net Speech Content tone: Nitish : (-) 28, Modi : (-) 16, Rahul : (-) 39) This is the main reason why the swings in the opinion polls have been small. None of the parties are yet to close the deal
2. Mr. Nitish Kumar's speech has the highest loading of promises and the lowest time spent on achievements. Not spending a lot more time on achievemnts is odd because his satisfaction ratings as CM are very high.
3. Mr. Modi's speech has the highest loading of positive conversations. However, the time spent on positive messaging seems to be much lower than during the Lok Sabha election. Also, time spent on negative attacks continues to be quite high. A much more positive messaging could have swung a much larger proportion of votes in BJP's favour
4. Mr Gandhi's speech had the highest proportion of negative attacks. Read this article to understand the logic behind these attacks (Click here). I am not in agreement with this because neither opinion polls nor past academic history support this argument.
Chart 1: Nitish Speech
Chart 2: Modi Speech
Chart 3: Rahul Speech
Founder, Crowdwisdom360, Global B2C Decisions Platform
9 年Amitabh TiwariThat said, the slightly positive campaign by BJP is gaining them small share every week. We discussed this, only matter of time before this heads for a landslide.
Author| Ex Corporate & Investment Banker| Independent Consultant| Public Policy| Campaign Creator| Advisor & Strategist| Elections Analyst & Researcher| Columnist & TV Panelist| Mentor|
9 年Points to a pity plight of election campaigns in India in general. Less issue based and more personalities based. In Bihar the main issue is whether you want Modi or still prefer Nitish despite him having tied up with Lalu.
Founder, Crowdwisdom360, Global B2C Decisions Platform
9 年Nachiket, no insights yet but we should know a lot more over the next one week once fresh opinion polls are released.
In God we trust, all others must bring data
9 年Thanks for your response to my comment in your earlier article - https://www.dhirubhai.net/pulse/bihar-election-confusing-nitish-kumar-strategy-subhash-chandra?trk=mp-reader-card Well, this is slightly off the topic. But any insights on AMIM entry in Bihar elections? Do you think vote share of parties banking on Y&M will get deviated?
Product Leader - NielsenIQ APAC, INSEAD Online, Doctoral Student
9 年the Janta Parvar and Congress's only focus is to bring Modi down. No major plans or announcements on the development front