NIQ Equity Research Insights
This month features analyst callouts on Fortinet, Qorvo, Skyworks, Alcon, Tesla, SharkNinja, Deepseek and OpenAI
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FORTINET (FTNT):?? In 4Q NIQ captured billings reached a quarterly high, consistent with reported billings. Strength continued through early 1Q, driven by co-terming of new licenses to existing subscriptions and strength for FortiGate security devices such as the 400F Next-Generation Firewall (NGFW) as enterprises seek threat protection at scale through the use of AI-powered security.? ?
NIQ Analyst: Imaad S.
Qorvo (QRVO) and Skyworks (SWKS): Non-U.S. RF supplier share gains within low-end Android smartphones are now well understood; however, NIQ data shows that U.S. suppliers are also ceding share in the high-end, presenting further downside risk. Qorvo holds roughly one-third of the RF revenue share in high-end Android smartphones. Skyworks’ position is significantly smaller, but increased competition will make it more difficult for it to reestablish itself in this critical segment amid content losses at Apple.
NIQ Analyst: Brad S.
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Alcon (ALC): Distribution for the Precision7 Weekly lens accelerated in December and NIQ anticipates that 4Q sell-in revenue will benefit as the company fills the channel with the product ahead of the official launch in 1Q25; the new lens is expected to contribute to share gains for the brand as it taps into the underpenetrated Weekly lens market.
NIQ Analyst: Colin Hurley
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA): Tesla recently announced the first major refresh to the Model Y, the world's best-selling car, since its debut in 2020. Comparing initial US sales trends?to the Model 3, which underwent a similar refresh in 2024, Model Y sales are outpacing all variants of the Model 3 in the first 3 weeks post-announcement. While this outperformance is expected to some extent given America's preference for SUVs, it should be noted that Tesla is currently only selling a highly optioned "Launch Series" trim priced at $60,000. Once lower cost trims become available in the coming months the gap could easily widen further.??
NIQ Analyst: Hugh MacGillivray
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SharkNinja (SN) - Sell-out strength for SharkNinja continued through January data in both the U.S. and International regions and as a result NIQ raised sell-in revenue estimates for 4Q and 1Q ahead of the company's earnings.
NIQ Analyst: Colin Hurley
DeepSeek/OpenAI -?DeepSeek has significantly penetrated OpenAI’s user base. From December 26 (V3 launch) to January 20 (R1 launch), DeepSeek accounted for 18% of new user registrations among the two companies. Following R1 and up until February 9, this number rose to 82%. Also, between the V3 and R1 launches, 54% of new DeepSeek users had previously opened OpenAI accounts and post R1 48% of them had done so.
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