NIMBY to hit back! Green Ammonia Security Risks could block Energytransition plans

Shortly after the publication of the IPCC report stating that more needs to be done to counter possible Global Warming and its disastrous effects on the environment, pushing for an end to hydrocarbons, energy transition however is now again at risk. The current green hydrogen and green ammonia hype, as it is pushed as the only real feasible substitute for hydrocarbons in a low-carbon or Net-Zero future, are now hit by the old devils of activism and political strategies. Europe’s current and future green energy strategies are going to face possible increased opposition of NGOs and citizens as security risks related to green hydrogen and green ammonia are much higher than currently is being acknowledged. A possible NIMBY activism is to be expected in leading energy-transition countries, such as Germany and the Netherlands, after a new report stated that an exponential increase in transportation of green hydrogen but especially ammonia is more risky and could be even a no-go area for some participants.

Based on research done by accountancy company Berenschot, engineering consultancy Arcadis and Dutch applied science and technology organization TNO, more needs to be done to set up the right framework of policy, law and regulations, and risk mitigation measures to counter possible security risks in a situation of much higher volumes of transport of ammonia and hydrogen. Based on the techno-economic assessments that maritime transport of green ammonia is much easier and cost-effective, the report expects a large influx and growth of green ammonia based on EU and national government plans. The report expects megatonnage of ammonia to land in European ports, especially the Port of Rotterdam, looking at its Dutch and German hinterland. At the same time, ammonia import going to Belgium also will be going through Dutch waters, as the main Belgian port Antwerp is semi-landlocked. On-land transport, either heavy duty transport, trains or inland-shipping, all will be going through the Netherlands. Due to this it is expected that overall ammonia transport volumes will be exponentially higher, directly increasing overall risks. The potential pressure on other developments, such as housing, industrial operations or outright other transportation, is immense, as a potential disaster involving ammonia is expected to have a wide-range of effects on the surrounding areas.

To counter these risks, a potential solution is available, set up of a new pipeline infrastructure or construction of ammonia-crackers, but investments will be high and total projects implementation will take a vast amount of time. Looking at the above, conventional transportation will for an extended period of time be the main source.

Looking at the current legal and policy arrangements or quota’s per transportation volume available, major constraints are already visible, so governments and the EU need to act asap. If not, total transportation volumes available for high-risk products will not be sufficient, aka implementation and expansion of green ammonia projects will be hitting a brick wall. The same also will be the case possibly with green hydrogen, looking at its inherent risk profile and even higher emission risks when related to CO2/CH4.

Taking the devil’s advocate position, while taking into account the green and environmental activism or societal discourse with regards to hydrocarbons on one-side but also wind and solar projects, green hydrogen or green ammonia will be facing the same challenges. If more and more reports about security risks are being published, society and NGOs will be waking up. Combined with still extremely higher price settings and even potentially higher environmental risks, the green hydrogen race is not yet a win-win situation at all. If Dutch parties are being confronted soon by an increased societal pressure or even opposition, looking at the current political landslide the last weeks, no money can still be put on a green transition without hydrocarbons long-term.?With a potential orange light on in the Netherlands, activists in Germany and other European member countries will be waking up soon.?