Nigeria’s February 2023 national elections: An Election campaign like no other

Kasirim Nwuke

22nd February 2023

In less than 72 hours, Nigerians will go to the polls in a first of two elections to elect those who will govern their affairs and shape their destinies for the next four years. On the 25th of February, Nigerians will elect a new president and a new National Assembly. The presidential election has captured the attention and imagination of practically every Nigerian at home and abroad and many West Africans. Every Nigerian can write a book or at least an essay about the 2023 presidential election campaign. The structure, the text, the complete narrative already exist in our minds and all that is required is to sit down and write. This is so because this election is different from any other that Nigeria has had in its recent history. The atmosphere is pregnant with fervent hope mixed with numbing anxiety and evokes in a way the final days of the reign of General Sani Abacha.

Until a few months ago, the general and perhaps settled view was that the presidential elections and the elections in general will as in the past be a straight fight between the two major political parties that have dominated the Nigerian political arena since 2015, the ruling All Progressive Congress (APC) of President Buhari, and the not-ruling Peoples Democratic Party. I use the adjective “not-ruling” instead of “opposition party” deliberately to underscore the absence of ?ideology in Nigeria’s two major political parties. Nigeria effectively has had a non-ideological “two-party” system since the return of civil rule in 1999.

For most of Nigeria’s post-military dictatorship period, political parties have served as platforms that enable a self-serving desire to rule which also grants unimpeded access to public resources. Military rule appears to have extinguished in loads of Nigerian politicians the belief in a better Nigeria, a better future and instilled in them instead, a belief in a better future for self and family – for the most part. And they have no compunction about showing off their new found wealth: large fenced off properties in their villages that they seldom spend a night in; homes in Dubai, London, and anywhere else overseas; children graduating from UK and US universities; galleries of expensive watches and cars. Lacking ideology, Nigeria has trundled along on non-ideological, nihilistic rule for more than 20 years. But that could be about to change because young Nigerians appear to have awakened to it and want to change it, peacefully, via the ballot box instead of a revolution. And that is why this election is like no other since 1999.

The Parties and the candidates

There are 18 candidates contesting for the presidency. The three leading candidates are Mr. Peter Obi former Governor of Anambra State of the little known Labour Party (LP), Mr. Bola Ahmed Tinubu, former Governor of Lagos State of the ruling APC, and Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, former vice president of the country under former president Olusegun Obasanjo and serial seeker of the presidency of the non-ruling PDP. Dr. Rabiu Kwankwaso, a highly regarded but very peripatetic politician, of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP). Serendipitously, the three leading candidates and the dark horse represent the three major ethnic groups and voting blocks in the country: ?Obi, Christian, Igbo, Eastern Nigeria; Atiku, Muslim/Fulani, Northern Nigeria; Kwankwaso, Muslim, Hausa, Northern Nigeria, and Tinubu, Muslim, Yoruba Western Nigeria. So, not unexpectedly, religion and ethnicity have become very important variables and arguments in this election.

The most competitive election in Nigeria’s recent history

After several months of campaigning by the leading candidates, it is safe to say, based on the evidence that this is the most competitive election in Nigeria’s recent history. It is so for two main reasons in my view. First, Tinubu and Atiku, both now in their 70s each believes this is their turn to rule the country. For Tinubu, visibly hobbled by ill health and age, 2023 is probably the last opportunity to try to achieve a life-time ambition. Panicked that the opportunity to rule Nigeria might be slipping, Mr. Tinubu asserted at a campaign event in Ogun State that this is “Emi lokan”, an expression that has since entered Nigerian music and political lexicon. Atiku asserted a similar claim when he told southeasterners agitating that the PDP should cede the presidency to their zone that they should wait for their turn, which will be after he has served out term. Clearly none of the two “Emi Lokans” will want to give up for the other. So, the two campaigns, the Atiku and Tinubu campaigns, have been at times very vicious in their attacks on each other.

Second, the Labour Party candidate, Peter Obi, buoyed by youth anxious and desperate for a better future, from an ethnic group whose full citizenship rights in Nigeria is often questioned by some, has risen to become a very serious contender. He has been the cynosure A foreigner reading Nigerian newspapers will be forgiven were he to think that there are just two leading candidates, not four. The two main political parties, PDP and APC have directed most of the arrows in their quivers at Obi of LP. To use a football analogy, Obi is like Pele with the football and the other parties are like the all the players of the opposing team doing their utmost to stop him from scoring a goal. Pele scored. Obi might score.

Moral relativism

It is often said that Nigerians forget a lot and are quick to forgive the misdeeds and incompetence of those who rule them. Some use the term “Economics of Forgetfulness” to describe it. That is a wrong diagnosis of Nigeria’s troubling proclivity to forgive the misdeeds of its rulers. Nigeria’s main problem, as this election has revealed, is that it suffers an epidemic of moral relativism. The moral relativism appears in the way Nigerians treat corruption and it emanates from religion and ethnicity. Many Nigerians will defend corrupt persons who share their ethnicity while condemning to the high heavens persons of other ethnic groups accused of corruption. The moral relativism has become very pronounced this election cycle. Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the presidential candidate of the governing APC has a lot of unanswered and unresolved issues surrounding his character, competence, capacity and capability to effectively manage a 21st century multi-ethnic, multi-religious democracy. He is said to be of unknown age, unknown health status, and using an assumed name. He is also said not to have any childhood pictures of himself, no known childhood friends and classmates, no work history apart from serving as Senator at some point and as Governor of Lagos State, and no known source of wealth. Nigerians don’t even know how many wives he’s had and number of children he has. Yet, loads of observationally very brilliant people from his ethnic group and party members from across the country defend him, will vote and are urging Nigerians to for him.

The candidate of the non-governing party, PDP, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, comes with his own baggage too. A former vice president and former senior official of the Nigerian Customs Service with four wives (representing each of the four dominant ethnic groups in the country) and 32 children, Mr. Atiku has been running for president since 1992. I am unsure who between him and Kenya’s Raila Odinga holds the record for running for President on the continent. He too like Tinubu is fantastically rich and like the Tinubu, the source of his fabulous wealth is said to be unknown. Mr. Atiku has been an absentee politician in Nigeria, having largely relocated to Dubai since he lost the 2019 presidential election only to resurface in the country to mount yet another run for the presidency. His supporters find nothing wrong with his largely unexplained wealth and the fact that he abandoned the country.

Ethnicity, hate speech and religion

Politicians of the two leading parties, APC and PDP, have unleashed the incendiary brew of ethnicity, religion, and hate speech to advance their candidate’s and party’s interests in a way never done before. Religion has always been invoked one way or the other in Nigeria’s elections going back to pre-independence period. But today, aided by social media, and an impotent media council and Human Rights Commission, candidates and their supporters are using religion in a way that could constitute a threat to security of life and property not just during the election but in the post-election period too.

For the first time since 1999 Nigeria has a same faith presidential ticket (Muslim-Muslim). The governing APC decided to present to Nigerians, a same faith Muslim-Muslim ticket, challenging a quietly understood post-1999 consensus in the country that national unity requires not only a ticket balanced by ethnicity and geography, but a ticket also balanced by religion. This decision has riled Christians, especially Christians in northern Nigeria and presents a challenge to the notion of one North. An influential group of Northern Nigerian Christians led by former very high federal government official is mobilizing support a Christian candidate from the south. There is poorly concealed or camouflaged campaigning in Mosques and Churches. The candidates on their visit to UK’s Chatham House, London, made sure irrespective of their faith affiliation, that they met with the Archbishop of Canterbury. The two candidates who are Muslim went to perform the Umra Hajj and beamed it live to followers back in Nigeria. Friday worship at the National Mosque or some church by the leading candidates is regularly reported. ?

Candidates have not been shy about using ethnicity and religion in their campaigns. Kwankwaso argued that “Northerners will not vote for a South easterner in 2023”. The APC governor of Kaduna State Mr. El-Rufai called Mr. Obi a “trader” and a “Nollywood actor”, euphemisms for Igbo since the typical trader and the typical Nollywood actor in Nigeria is of Igbo extraction. Calling Obi a trader and a Nollywood actor conveyed the ethnic pejorative without being offensive since it also conveyed distinctions in class. Some Traditional rulers, Christian clergy, and Muslim clerics are competing too to endorse candidates of their faith. The Emir of Daura encouraged Northerners to “Vote only for your own, vote for Northerners ”. ?“"If I talk about Obasanjo and Obi, you'll think they're human beings" - Tinubu at the APC Rally in Edo state. ?Tinubu: “Igbos overcrowding Lagos because Obi refused to develop Anambra: Tinubu” . Sheikh Muhammad Bn Uthman Kano while endorsing Tinubu’s Moslem-Moslem ticket asserted that “All Muslims should vote the Moslem-Moslem ticket. Christians should be removed from every government ?in Nigeria. It took the servant of God, Elrufai, in Kaduna state to tame the infidels in the state".

Intra-party feud, intra-generational and intra-ethnic envy

Election time intra-party feuds are common in Nigerian politics but not of the sort seen this election season. President Muhammadu Buhari of the APC has vowed to leave a legacy of credible elections. One of the actions that he has taken to effectuate his vow is to reduce the influence of money in Nigeria’s elections. To this end, he approved the decision of the Central Bank of Nigeria to redesign the highest denominations of the Nigerian currency and to set a firm date, 31st January 2023 for citizens to exchange the old currency for the new ones. Buhari’s goal is to prevent or minimize vote buying on election day. The implementation of this good faith policy has caused enormous hardship to citizens. It has also unleashed an intra-party feud within the APC of unbelievable intensity. Tinubu and his team are petrified that the hardship caused by the policy could further and reinforce disaffection with the ruling APC and cost him the presidency. Tinubu alleged, without adducing any evidence, that the currency swap decision and the acute scarcity of fuel across the country are measures and actions designed to scuttle his ambition. Some APC governors who support him have sued the APC president of Nigeria at the Supreme Court to challenge the currency policy.

Buhari’s apparent unwillingness to deploy the resources and coercive powers of the ?Federal Government’s to ensure APC victory at the polls appears to be very concerning to Tinubu and his team. Some members of his team have accused the Buhari presidency of working to scuttle Tinubu’s presidential ambition. The APC Governor of Ondo State described the currency redesign policy as “a dagger drawn at the heart of the ruling APC on the eve of the elections to destroy it and the governments it controls at the federal and state levels.” The APC Governor of Kaduna State in a statewide broadcast countermanded Buhari’s policy on the currency swap, directing residents of the State to ignore the president’s decision. The APC Governor of Kano State went to the extreme. He asserted that Buhari has not achieved anything in his 8 years in office. ?Adams Oshiomole, a former APC governor of Edo State lambasted Buhari at a recent campaign event. Ruling party running as opposition? Nigerians have never seen this before.

The campaign has also surfaced intra-generational and intra-ethnic envy as important variables in Nigerian elections that were largely ignored. Nigerians in general respect age. So, it is not surprising that many Nigerians of Obi’s age appear to accept Atiku’s and Tinubu’s candidacies instead of Obi’s. But respect for the elderly is probably not the only explanation for the largely timid support for Obi from people of his generation. There is also intra-generational envy. Former President Jonathan was a victim of that envy too. Intra-ethnic group has played out in this election too. Among Obi’s fellow Igbos, elite support for his candidacy has been very tepid. Perhaps strategically. But his biggest critics so far have been his fellow Igbos, among whom is the current governor of his home state, Anambra. there was some resistance to the fact that he is from Anambra State, the state that has produced practically all the Igbos who have played important roles in Nigeria’s national life. And there are divisions within regions. To the surprise of most observers, the vice presidential candidate of the APC, Kashim Shettima, alleged that the “North is not supporting him because he is Kanuri, not Hausa ”.

Fake News and some silly arguments

Fake news and deliberate misinformation abounds. There appears to be no compunction for moderation in deploying this arsenal. At times, the impression is created that the candidates of two major parties, PDP and APC, have run out of arguments or simply have nothing to say to the Nigerian people. Tinubu said nothing at his campaign event in Kano. He thought candidates in Nigeria’s Northwest will be content to see his new dance moves, proof that he is healthy and vigorous enough to husband the affairs of the country. The leading jesters of the APC and PDP, Mr. Keyamo for the APC and Mr. Dino Melaye appear to be having a great time spewing inane stories and arguments. At other times, the candidates of APC and PDP and their campaigns are competing in regard to who between Atiku and Tinubu is the bigger thief. Members of their families have not been left out. Tinubu’s son, Seyi asked voters in Anambra State to “Vote for my father because I married an Igbo woman and he has a penchant for discovering, nurturing and empowering talent”. Mrs. Titi Atiku Abubakar?urged her Yoruba kinsfolk to vote for Atiku because “No Yoruba has been president’s wife since 1999-I want to be the first …I want Yoruba people to support the candidacy of Atiku. Atiku’s victory will make me the first lady of the country.”

Conclusion

Nigeria is at an important crossroad in its journey. Provoked by the routine humiliation they suffer in the hands of politicians and those who rule them, emasculated by the lack of jobs and opportunities at home, angered that they are forced to abandon their ageing parents in Nigeria in search of better and at times humiliating opportunities overseas, the youth of the country have risen to assert their voice in the national conversation. Most of them have made a choice. And that choice is Mr. Peter Obi of the Labour Party, with the very simple message of “Moving Nigeria from Consumption to Production to make a New Nigeria Possible”. How they made that choice is still unclear. But what is clear is that youth choice has created a national choice problem that has made this election campaign like no other in Nigeria’s recent history.

These elections could determine if the nation makes the right choice on which path to take: continue on a part that has stunted its growth and circumscribed opportunities and possibilities for its youth for years. Or choose a new path. It is an election in which being non-partisan is not a choice. As Elie Wiesel counseled “Always take sides. Neutrality helps the oppressor, never the victim.” In this election, "Siddon de look" is not an option. One must choose between a Nigeria of the past and a Nigeria of the future, between a Nigeria where things don't work and a Nigeria where things can work, a Nigeria that young people want to run away from and a Nigeria where young people want to stay in or return to, a Nigeria whose passport is respected and a Nigeria whose passport most want to abandon. Nigerians will exercise that choice on Saturday 25th February 2023. One prays and hopes that they make the right choice/decision.