NIGERIA: (Re-)initiation of Coverage. A patriotic BUY recommendation on account of renewed economic diplomacy and drive.

Photo credit: Ngozi Akinyele FNIMN, MNIPR / Coronation / EnterpriseNGR

A few incarnations back, I served as a buy-side and later on a sell-side research analyst. I've always loved the concept of carefully analysing investment opportunities for pros/cons upsides/downsides headwinds/tailwinds, making recommendations, taking positions and watching them play out ... or not.

With that in mind - I make bold to (re-)initiate my coverage of the Nigerian economic landscape with a patriotic BUY recommendation on NIGERIA, even as we all gaze into the 2024 crystal ball and position for success.

Since May 2023, I have keenly observed a renewed drive for what I describe as "economic diplomacy" by Nigeria's state and non-state actors.

Here are a few events I've tracked:

1) President Bola Ahmed Tinubu's Inaugural Address

Highpoint: "Subsidy is gone."

2) Mission to G20 India

Highpoint: $15 billion+ of investment commitments and prospects to Nigeria

3) Mission to #Dubai

Highpoint: NGR<>DXB ban lifted ... or not yet lifted (I haven't flown there yet though)

4) Mission to United Nations (UNGA)

Highpoints: UNGA speech; Nasdaq closing bell ringing; full townhall with Nigerians-in-diaspora; NewGlobe, KwaraLEARN and Chairman Nigeria Governors' Forum Secretariat (Governor Abdulrahman Abdulrazaq) showcasing successful localised investment partnerships in basic education.

5) Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) #NES29

Highpoints: Presidential keynote to a congress hall of Private Sector players "...bring your ideas; bring your leadership; be highly inquisitive?and bring your capital!"

6) Mission to Saudi-Africa summit in Riyadh

Highpoint: multi-billion dollar investment flows and commitments to Nigeria

7) Launch of Lagos State Government International Financial Centre in collaboration with EnterpriseNGR and Coronation

Highpoint: invitation to the Lord Mayor's Michael Mainelli Show and the first African city to be invited in 805 years of the event.

8) Calibre of the presidential cabinet and economic managers

Highpoints: Wale Edun, Taiwo Oyedele , Olayemi Cardoso , Dr Jumoke Oduwole , Dr. ‘Bosun Tijani , Tola Odeyemi , etc. Fitch Group, Inc. views the cabinet as supportive of reform and a positive driver for maintaining Nigeria's stable B- outlook rating.

Now let me address your palpable scepticism - "Does this work? We've been here before."

Yes. Economic diplomacy works.

There is empirical evidence over the past 25 years (a meta-analysis of 32 studies of trade and investment impact of economic diplomacy across a sample of nearly 1,000 analysed points).

Of course, there are exceptions BUT at its core, economic diplomacy is about using economic means to achieve political ends ... [leveraging] the power of economic forces to achieve strategic objectives. - quoting Farhat Asif (PhD)

The appeal to me in Nigeria's case is what 英国伦敦政治经济学院 's Professor Linda Yueh describes as a sense of "commercial openness" and that there is no one general approach to economic diplomacy.

Nigeria is open for business and Naija no dey carry last, as we were passionately reminded at The Platform Nigeria on October 1.

If I were a betting man, I would bet on Nigeria... but I'm not a betting man.

I'm a Nigerian.

So I'm buying Nigeria - long term.

How about you?