Nigeria – Elections likely to proceed as scheduled in most states despite security threats
Torchlight Predictions
Developments
Insights
Buhari’s decision will boost frontrunner Tinubu’s prospects of winning the elections.?Buhari – who is from Katsina – remains popular in northern states and his presence on the campaign trail will help Tinubu – who is from the southwest – make inroads in these areas. Buhari’s initial reluctance to support Tinubu raised concerns within the APC that they could lose significant votes in the north to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar, who is from Adamawa and is popular in the northeast.?
Meanwhile, Obasanjo’s endorsement will strengthen Obi’s presidential bid, but he remains unlikely to win. Obasanjo retains significant influence among ethnic Yoruba communities and political circles in the southwest – Nigeria’s second-largest voting bloc. However, his endorsement alone is unlikely to make the inroads Obi requires to effectively challenge Tinubu in this region, particularly in rural areas where the Labour Party has limited reach. With the exception of the southeast, this factor will also limit Obi’s ability to reach rural voters in other regions and he will rely on urban youth to make up most of his votes.
Obasanjo’s endorsement of Obi will also further dent Abubakar and the PDP’s electoral prospects, as Obasanjo is a former PDP leader. The PDP’s chances are already?weakened ?by Obi’s candidacy and a split with five of the party’s 14 governors. These governors argue Abubakar’s candidacy undermines Nigeria’s longstanding rotational presidency system between northern and southern states given that Buhari is also a northerner. The five governors will announce their preferred candidate in the coming weeks. If they do not reverse their decision and back Abubakar, they will only strengthen Tinubu’s candidacy, with each of them having significant influence in their respective southern states.
领英推荐
Strategic Outlook
Elections are likely to proceed in the coming months, despite the INEC’s warning. The warning comes after regular?attacks ?on its facilities.?Around 15 of 36 states, namely in the northwest, northeast and southeast, are most affected by insecurity, including attacks by Islamist militant, bandit and secessionist groups. However, it is unlikely that it will impact enough constituencies in these areas to warrant a complete cancellation or suspension of the polls. A delay will also trigger accusations from opposition parties that Buhari and the APC are interfering with the electoral process, which in turn would exacerbate security challenges, with anti-government demonstrations likely, as well as further attacks on election infrastructure.?
That said, insecurity is likely to disrupt voting in enough constituencies that it will credibly delay the election results. This will likely lead to heightened political tensions during these days that will trigger localised violence, but will ease once the results are announced. In addition to the northern and southeastern states, which will see violence by non-state armed groups and clashes between rival supporters mobilised along ethno-religious lines, electoral violence is also likely in Lagos where voting tallies will be close.
More insights:
Want further access to high quality geopolitical risk intelligence analysis??Register here .
If you are a subscriber,?sign in to your account ?for more Torchlight Insights.
Torchlight AI 2023 Predictions:
To help guide your strategic decision making, see our top five expert?predictions , per region, for 2023.
Webinar - insights on demand:
Catch up on our?‘Global Energy Crisis: Winners and Losers’ webinar .