Niger Coup: Anti-Western Sentiment and Military Takeovers in the Sahel

Anti-Western/French sentiment in Niger has become evident since a military junta seized power in a coup d'état on 26th July 2023.??

Key Takeaways:?

• Presidential Guards seized power in Niger on 26th July, ousting President Mohamed Bazoum?
• The coup has been widely condemned by the international community, with regional bloc ECOWAS issuing an ultimatum?
• Niger is a key Western ally in the fight against jihadist insurgents in the region?
• The coup is the latest in a series of military takeovers in the region?
• Anti-Western – particularly anti-French – sentiment has followed coups in Mali and Burkina Faso?
• Protesters supporting the coup waved Russian flags and attacked the French Embassy in Niamey, France has said it will evacuate its citizens because of anti-French sentiment following the coup?
• Juntas in Burkina Faso and Mali – which is allied with the Russian Wagner Group – have said that any forcible attempt to restore the ousted President would be seen as a declaration of war.?

The coup was led by Presidential Guard Commander General Abdourahamane Tchiani, who has proclaimed himself leader of the National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland , the ruling military junta, suspending the constitution and dissolving all government institutions ‘until constitutional order returns.’ The coup leaders have cited ongoing instability as the driving factor behind the military takeover. The coup has been condemned internationally, with regional bloc ECOWAS, the African Union and the UN rejecting General Tchiani’s claim to power, as well as Western powers including France, the US and the EU. ECOWAS has given a seven day deadline to free President Bazoum and restore civilian rule, while France cut off financial aid to the country.?

On Monday 31st July, the ruling junta claimed that France was plotting to intervene militarily in the country, and reportedly arrested the country’s oil, mining, interior and transport ministers, a former defence minister and the head of ousted President Bazoum’s PNDS party, while unconfirmed reports suggested that it had suspended the export of uranium and gold to France with immediate effect. The previous day, hostile crowds had gathered outside the French embassy, with some attacking the embassy. Yesterday morning, Tuesday 1st August, Paris said that it would withdraw its citizens from the country and offered to evacuate other Europeans as well. According to reporting from France24 , there are an estimated 600 French nationals in Niger. Anti-Western opposition movement M62 has allegedly urged the junta to hold foreign nationals hostage until foreign forces leave the country.?

The coup is the latest in a series of military takeovers of countries in the Sahel, with neighbouring Mali and Burkina Faso both experiencing two military coups in the space of a few months – August 2020 and May 2021, and January 2022 and September 2022, respectively. The region is home to a deadly cross border insurgency led by separate groups of Al Qaeda and Islamic State affiliated militants, which has claimed thousands of lives since spreading from northern Mali, with terror attacks routinely carried out in the tri-border region of the three countries in particular. On the Intelligence Fusion platform we currently have over 4000 incidents tagged as being terrorism related in the three countries - 1762 in Mali, 1816 in Burkina Faso and 476 in Niger, which also experiences jihadist activity in the south-east of the country near the Lake Chad region, along its tri-border region with Nigeria and Chad.?

Niger has become particularly important as a base for Western partners - led by France - to assist in counter-insurgency measures following the coups in Mali and Burkina Faso, which saw France withdraw from both countries. France reportedly has 1,500 troops currently based in Niger, and a major air base near Niamey. There are also 1,100 US troops reportedly stationed in the country.??

Following these previous coups anti-Western sentiment has been fomented by the ruling juntas, particularly in Mali, which has broken entirely with the French-led coalition as well as the UN MINUSMA peace keeping mission , and instead sought to fill the void left by its former Western military partners with the Russian Wagner mercenary group. Following the recent Burkinabe coup protesters waved Russian flags and attacked the French embassy in Ouagadougou , and these scenes were repeated in Niamey following the coup in Niger. In July 2023, the UK government published a report which stated that "Russian soft power had played an important role in influencing [Wagner's] involvement in Mali", and that it had medium confidence that "Prigozhin-affiliated media organised pro-Russian campaigns on social media since mid-2022 in the build up to a second coup" in Burkina Faso. Given what we have already seen since the military takeover in Niger, it would not come as a surprise if similar disinformation campaigns were to be carried out in the country.?

The Wagner Group has previously taken over mining concessions as payment in other African countries such as the Central African Republic (CAR), and there have been claims in open-source reports that Wagner has set up mining companies in Mali. In December 2022, Ghanaian President Nana Akufo-Addo claimed that Burkina Faso had also reached an arrangement with Wagner mercenaries and that a mine in the south of the country had been allocated to the group as payment for their services. Niger is home to significant gold reserves as well as being one of the world's biggest uranium producers.?

As part of its ultimatum, ECOWAS stated that it would “take all measures necessary to restore constitutional order”, and that “such measures may include the use of force.” France for its part has denied suggestions that it is planning to intervene militarily. Mali’s ruling junta have stated that both Mali and Burkina Faso would consider any foreign military intervention in Niger as a declaration of war on both nations as well as Niger.?

While it is perhaps too early to make any definitive judgements, and it remains to be seen what will come next in the wake of the coup, it adds to an already complex security situation in the region, where Russian influence appears to be growing at the expense of Western powers, and where insecurity only appears to be worsening. The humanitarian situation in these countries is already dire and it is to be hoped that international cooperation to meet these pressing humanitarian needs can still be achieved despite the ongoing fallout between the ruling juntas and foreign powers.?

We will continue to track the situation in the Sahel, and the wider West Africa region, as part of our 24/7 global intelligence monitoring. We currently map around 20,000 new incidents every month across the world, adding to our existing historical database of more than 1,000,000 incidents – each one mapped, analysed and verified by our team of intelligence analysts. To be among those who have access to this data, click here to book some time with a member of our team and take a tour of our platform. ??