Nigel Farage: The Ultimate Game-Changer in UK Politics

With Tory support slumping and Reform UK's surging, Nigel Farage is in a uniquely powerful position, and could be the man to dictate the future of British Conservatism.

Nigel Farage hasn’t been in the political limelight since 2019, when he lead the Brexit Party to victory in the EU parliamentary elections. However, 2024 may be the year that his political dormancy ends.

While best known nowadays for GB News and his appearance on I’m a celeb, Farage is still the owner and honorary president of Reform UK. Given Reform’s impressive polling performance, and the dire state the Conservative party, Farage’s return could be a game-changer for UK Politics.

Tory slump, Reform UK surge

It’s no secret that the Conservative party is in crisis. Pollsters are predicting that they are heading for their worst election defeat in history, and may be reduced to less than 100 MPs.

Key to this analysis is the effect of Reform UK’s popularity on the Tory vote. If Reform were to stand down, according to Electoral Calculus, this would increase the number of Tory seats from 80 to 133. The right-wing split is badly damaging the Tories, allowing Labour to mop up easy victories as Reform steal away disaffected Conservative voters.

Last week’s YouGov poll put Reform on 16% of the vote, just 5 points behind the Conservatives. A male-only poll actually has them ahead of the Tories, on 19% and 17% respectively. This surge in Reform UK support is worrying Tory strategists, who feel that Richard Tice will cost them the election.

Farage to the Tories?

Tory MPs are urging Sunak to give Farage a job in government, such as ambassador to Washington, in exchange for Reform standing down their candidates at the election.

Farage did this in 2019, ensuring that Corbyn’s Labour, who were proposing another Brexit referendum, couldn’t win, allowing Boris Johnson to finally deliver Brexit. But Farage has ruled it out this time, declaring that there was ‘zero chance’ of any pacts with the Tories.

Farage’s unwillingness to co-operate with Sunak is understandable, given that the Tories have completely betrayed their 2019 manifesto commitments, especially on immigration. From Reform’s perspective, in 2019 they sacrificed their own electoral prospects and handed the Tories an 80 seat majority so that Brexit could be delivered. In return, Johnson, Truss, and Sunak have raised taxes to their highest ever peacetime level, allowed immigration to spiral out of control, and have created a cost-of-living and healthcare crisis the likes of which this country has never seen before.

Without the ability to nullify Farage, the Tories are in a more vulnerable position than at any other point in their 200 year history. Reform UK are already eating into their voters across the country, all the while their star-man is nowhere to be seen. Were Farage to return, and campaign with Tice and co for Reform UK, it would be disastrous for the Conservatives in both 2024 and beyond.

It’s no wonder that Tory MPs are desperate to get him onboard, with one Red Wall MP saying ‘He already has a great relationship with Donald Trump and he would make an excellent interlocutor between the two countries. Bung him a peerage and make him ambassador is what I would do’. Political bribes likely won’t work this time, and the Conservatives only have themselves to blame if they are wiped out at the election.

Farage the Game Changer?

In 2015, Farage’s UKIP party received around 12% of the vote, and with Reform’s current polling performance consistently at similar or higher levels, his return could spell doom for the Conservative party. Farage still remains highly popular among voters, and his return would quickly add several points to that 16% YouGov poll, possibly seeing Reform draw level or overtake the Tories nationally.

An Observer poll suggested that 37% of current Conservative voters would be more favourable towards Reform UK with Farage as leader. He is clearly in a uniquely powerful position, and any decision he makes could have huge implications for the future of right-wing UK politics.

At Liz Truss’ Pop-Con conference earlier this year, Farage suggested that leading Conservative and Reform UK figures could come together after the election. With electoral wipe-out for the Conservatives, a war on the right of British politics will ensue, and it is entirely possible that we could see a new entity representing the interests of both parties.

Farage himself said that ‘there’s a historic opportunity to really change things’. He cited the case of Canada’s Progressive Conservative Party, who, after 9 years of government, were reduced to 2 seats at the 1993 election. The party was then replaced by, coincidently, the Reform Party, which subsequently changed its name to the Canadian Alliance, and then merged with the old Progressive Conservatives to form a new party. Farage declared ‘If there was a model, it’s Canada’.

Regarding the election, he said that ‘If Reform do well and get a lot of votes and a reasonable representation of seats — and the Tories do very badly — then something very big is coming afterwards’. His return could obliterate the Tory party, and a possible merging with Reform may allow Farage to dictate the policy programme of any future British Conservative movement.

The aforementioned Electoral Calculus poll suggests that Sunak, Hunt, and Mordaunt are all at risk of losing their seats the election. Kemi Badenoch, current Business Secretary, is one of the only cabinet ministers whose seat is predicted to be safe, arguably making her firm favourite to replace Sunak in the post election fallout. But Nigel Farage also will certainly feature in that conversation.

Matt Goodwin accurately summarised this situation as the ‘beginning of a prolonged, ideological, political civil-war on the right of British politics’. Nigel Farage is undoubtedly a key player in UK politics, and could be the man to dictate the future of British Conservatism.

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