NIFTY update 25 Jan 2025

In our post-June 2024 rally., in all of our writings and personal interactions., we have recommended sell / unwind at and above 24400 nifty index level . Market went up another 6+ percent almost from there to 26200 odd., but nifty is back at 23000 at beginning of Jan 2025. It was also mentioned that second half of 2024 would be volatile for all markets.

Now let's see what is happening in the superindicator. But first ., the legal disclaimer : i am not a licensed portfolio manager or advisor. I write these articles for myself. As a log to maintain a dated record of my work., and as an educational post. Please consult a licensed professional for your investment / trading in the equity markets.

What i am about to write will shock many people. and they will not like it. If you are one of those who are perpetually bullish about the markets., you have been warned. You will not write what's written hereafter.

One of our superindicators has given a super sell signal. The last signal it had was in april 2023 ., when it gave a buy. This is one of our slowest ., but the most potent signal. When it comes ., we cannot ignore it. It leads to very long term moves. the april 2023 one lasted almost 18 months. i dont know how long this sell signal will last.

It signifies either or of the two things. Market will stay in a big range., not crossing the all time highs for a considerable period of time. The second.... market will trend down., keep making lower lows for a considerable period of time. What could that period be ... we do not know.

What is the probability of this signal turning from a sell to a buy. Of course it can., every time it does., thats why we get bull markets and bear markets. As you can see its not a bottom or top catching signal. It is a long duration market signal. It means one thing for sure., market will have a difficult time coming near or crossing Dec 2024 - Jan 2025 highs.

There will be pain for a considerable time.

From another study of ours., the following might unfold in the next few months. Market will go to somewhere around 22000., then correct sharply to 24000 odd levels ., and then again start falling ., this time nicely making lower highs and lower lows., and eventually come to around 19-20000 level. and this might unfold in the time period 6-18 months from ATHs. We are already 4 months in., after making all time highs.

The only confirmation needed is from SP500. According to our research., spx is likely in the last leg of this super bull market rally. 6000+ a few hundred points looks most likely to be a major top for the US markets. Once SP500 comes or goes below 5600-5800 level., all hell will break loose.

Or maybe none of this will unfold., and i would be completely wrong. Only time will tell.

LET ME REMIND YOU ONCE AGAIN. THE ABOVE NOTE IS JUST FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSE. IT IS NOT A RECOMMENDATION TO SELL OR BUY OR ACT UPON IN THE STOCK MARKETS.

I AM NOT A LICENSED ADVISOR.

Stay Profitable. Stay Healthy.