Nicola Sturgeon resigns: Implications of a watershed moment for the SNP and for Scotland

Nicola Sturgeon has been a constant presence in Scottish public life for almost a quarter of a century. She is the promising protégée who rose to prominence during a period of tumultuous change and who, along with her one-time mentor, Alex Salmond, fronted an electoral strategy so successful her once fledgling party humbled Scottish Labour by supplanting them entirely. She was part of the leadership duo which took Scotland to within five points of independence and she is recognised, by friend and foe alike, as being one of, if not the, stand-out politician of the devolution era. Her resignation will come as a shock to her party which, while divided over its long-term strategic approach to securing a second independence referendum, has become synonymous with Sturgeon herself. Scotland’s premier political party will now hold a leadership election for only the second time in two decades. So, what does this mean for the SNP, Scotland and UK politics more widely?

To fully appreciate the gravity of Sturgeon’s resignation, and its implications, it is worth briefly dwelling on her political career to date. She was part of the generation of SNP members which debated whether to endorse devolution at all; this niche but historically important schism set fundamentalists (those who argued devolution was a compromise which undermined devolution) against gradualists (those who argued it was a stepping stone to independence) and it would shape the future of the Scottish National Party and, by extension, modern Scottish politics. Sturgeon was part of a small inner group, along with Alex Salmond and John Swinney, which won the day; the SNP backed the creation of the Scottish Parliament that it would come to dominate. The gradualists were in control. It is easy to think of Nicola Sturgeon as the First Minister who fronted an election winning machine and was the master of all she surveyed; she, however, dwells as much on the days where she and her party were on the fringes. She is the last of this ‘old guard’ of leaders, and the SNP now takes a step into the relative unknown. This is a big moment.

Her resignation will naturally be viewed through the prism of the next UK General Election. The SNP’s opponents will be buoyed by the fact such a formidable opponent has left the stage, but, in many ways, her resignation allows the SNP some time to breathe. Independence very much remains the live issue in Scottish politics and from a nationalist perspective the ‘cause’ is bigger than any one individual. Last year’s Supreme Court ruling – which said the SNP cannot hold a second referendum without the explicit approval of the UK Government – was a watershed moment for the party and led to many insiders opining privately that the baton would inevitably have to be handed to the next generation. There was a sense that Nicola Sturgeon had taken the party as far as she could.

Labour will now sense an opening in Scotland. With a referendum off the cards for the foreseeable future, Keir Starmer and Anas Sarwar will relentlessly press home the message that Scottish voters face one simple but stark choice at the next election: a Conservative or Labour Government. With a new and potentially inexperienced leader, the SNP may face an age-old problem it thought it had overcome with regards to Westminster elections: that of relevance. Expect Anas Sarwar to repeat the mantra – even if polls in England don’t entirely bear this out – that the road to a Labour Government runs through Scotland. Capturing a handful of central belt seats that Labour ceded to the SNP in 2015 could see Starmer over the line.

There is also of course the question of succession. Immediate focus will be on Kate Forbes, the Scottish Finance Secretary who has quickly risen through the ranks in recent years. A centrist who hails from the Highlands and Islands, she is viewed as a credible leader able to appeal to a broad spectrum of Scottish society. We may also see Angus Robertson, the SNP’s former Westminster Leader and current Constitutional Affairs Secretary, throw his hat into the ring. What is clear, however, is that a new leader will herald a new era for the party and wider yes movement – crucially, a new leader will have time on their side. Only time will tell if they can achieve what Nicola Sturgeon has failed to do.

Lastly, the timing may have come as a shock, but few politicians get to depart on their own (relative) terms. The fact Nicola Sturgeon did is testament to the dominant position she has long-held within her party. Some will mourn her resignation, and some will celebrate; there is no doubt that Sturgeon was as divisive a politician as she was a formidable one. Her party now looks to the next chapter in its long and intriguing history. It may prove to be the most important one yet.

Analysis by Kevin O'Donnell, Associate Director