Nick Xenophon declares return to SA politics ahead of High Court decision

Twenty years is an eternity in modern politics.

It is twenty years since Nick Xenophon was elected to the South Australian Legislative Council in the 1997 election.

It is ten years since he made the transition to federal politics in 2007. Now he wants to come back.

With limited mention of the pending High Court decision regarding his ability to continue as a Federal Parliamentarian Senator Xenophon has launched a carefully targeted assault to win state lower house seats at the 2018 SA state election.

Leveraging his success winning the Federal House of Representatives seat of Mayo from Liberal Minister Jamie Briggs, Senator Xenophon's SA Best party intends to offer candidates in state electorates, including a few that fall within the Mayo boundaries. That seems sensible. No doubt the resources of a federal electorate office have been helpful in preparing the local community.

SA Best has identified Adelaide Hills and Fleurieu Peninsula seats such as Heysen and Finniss as being vulnerable, where sitting members are retiring. Former Liberal Leader Isobel Redmond has served Heysen since 2002 and Michael Pengilly has been the Member for Finniss since 2006. Both over 60 are retiring in March. The advantage of incumbency eroded.

Mawson is another target. A Labor seat held by Tourism Minister Leon Bignell since 2006, has been subject to a wild redistribution which now extends from the southern suburbs to include Kangaroo Island and a long stretch of the Fleurieu coast.

Senator Xenophon himself will leave the Senate to contest the eastern Adelaide seat of Hartley, his long-time home. Before yesterday the sitting member, Vincent Tarzia, who won the marginal seat in 2014, would have been expecting his biggest threat to come from Labor not Canberra.

Seats like Morphett and Waite are also in unconventional situations.

Waite is held by former Liberal Leader now Labor Cabinet Minister Martin Hamilton-Smith. He won the seat in 2014 as a Liberal and faces an uphill battle to retain the seat. However, a Xenophon candidate will change the equation for Liberal MP Sam Duluk who is seeking to transition from Davenport. The redistribution means that much of the Davenport community is now in Waite.

Morphett is another messy affair. Liberal preselection disagreements have resulted in sitting member Duncan McFetridge quitting the Liberal Party and running as an independent. This will split the Liberal vote.

Labor has also suffered from infighting and uncertainty remains in Florey after Jack Snelling quit the ministry last month after sitting member Frances Bedford stood her ground. Bedford is yet to confirm her intentions, but is likely to run as an independent.

Mount Gambier is also represented by an independent. Troy Bell was forced to quit the Liberal Party in August due to accusations from an ICAC investigation.

Unveiling the first seven of a likely 20 SA Best candidates Senator Xenophon declared his aim was to secure the balance of power and force more openness and accountability in areas including government spending, freedom of information and anti-corruption laws.

Senator Xenophon ruled out that he or his candidates would accept ministries and refused to say which party he would back in a hung parliament.

Liberal leader Steven Marshall immediately ruled out any minority government deal, although Labor left the prospect open.

Senator Xenophon is seeking to capitalise on extraordinary opinion poll ratings. SA Best has consistently attracted primary support of almost a quarter of South Australian voters.

According to reports a statewide Galaxy poll taken in September, commissioned by the Australian Bankers’ Association, shows SA Best at 26 per cent primary support.

That is only one point behind Labor’s 27 per cent, with the Liberals at 31 per cent.

Senator Xenophon vowed the SA public would know his party’s kingmaker criteria when going to the polls, saying a final decision would depend on seats won by all parties, policies and campaign conduct.

He signalled he would quit politics if he did not win Hartley, declaring his candidacy was going to be “a do or die effort”.

If he is deemed ineligible to serve in the Senate by the High Court, Senator Xenophon will resign and likely be replaced in December by his senior adviser Rex Patrick, who is a former submariner and defence writer.